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Canada: Nation In Crisis.

Canada's Liberal Party is sinking faster than Wesley Clark's Presidential campaign. Well, maybe that's overstating it, but the Canadian Liberals are in real trouble, according to a new poll:

Here are the figures for all five major parties (February 15-17 results in brackets):

* Liberals: 27 per cent, -10 (37)
* Conservatives: 30 per cent, +4 (26)
* NDP: 19 per cent, +2 (17)
* Bloc Quebecois: 12 per cent, +2 (10)
* Greens: 7 per cent, 0 (7)

But wait, there's more:

The poll contains more ominous news for Liberals:

* Because of revelations at the Gomery inquiry, 45 per cent feel the Liberals have lost their moral right to govern, while 52 per cent say they haven't; and
* Sixty-five per cent say the Liberals don't deserve re-election and that it's time for another party to govern Canada.

Almost 90 per cent agree with the view that the Gomery inquiry should be allowed to complete its investigation of the sponsorship scandal before an election is called. And the poll found 71 per cent of Canadians saying the Gomery commission's findings will only be one of many factors in determining how they vote when the next federal election comes.

Unlike in the United States, with regularly scheduled elections, Canada's parliamentary system allows for elections to be called at nearly any time:

But Conservative Leader Stephen Harper has much to consider before making the election call — including the fact that more Canadians trust Paul Martin to be prime minister than trust him....

"The problem he's got in waiting is you may give your opponent time to recover," said Darrell Bricker, the president of Ipsos-Reid, who conducted the poll for The Globe and Mail and CTV. On the other hand "the Gomery inquiry is just really getting heated up now and there could be some more damning testimony that comes down the pipe."

....On the other hand, 50 per cent of respondents said they would not consider voting Conservative and a slim majority said they believe the wrongdoings were committed by "a small rogue band of corrupt individuals" within the Liberal Party and not the party in general....

"It is risky," Mr. Bricker said. "They have to make some things happen before they pull the trigger. But the longer the wait the harder it will be. And all of the rumours and speculation about an election in early May or mid-May, I think they are all relatively accurate."

The latest from Captain's Quarters:

The Conservatives have steadfastly held off on calling for a no-confidence vote, preferring to allow events to run their course before triggering a new election. With more explosive testimony expected at the Gomery Inquiry and the resurfacing of the Earnscliffe allegations, the Tories may believe that a perfect political storm has yet to completely coalesce. Like any other gamble, don't expect the players to change strategy until their run ends.

Out of the turmoil, a new and better Canada could rise. However, don't expect the left-wing ideology, the socialism, the subtle (and sometimes not-so-subtle) anti-Americanism, to suddenly go away, along with Liberal dominance at the polls.

UPDATE (April 16): Canada's Conservative Party continues to rise in the polls. More from Captain's Quarters blog, noting that the Conservatives need to strike while the iron is hot:

They've gained only at the expense of the Liberals' loss, and that kind of electoral gain usually proves fairly transient.

Meanwhile, PoliPundit links to the Cliff's Notes versions of the scandal.

Posted by Will Franklin · 12 April 2005 07:19 AM

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