WILLisms.com: Trivia Tidbit Of The Day: Part 13 -- Midterm Elections.

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Trivia Tidbit Of The Day: Part 13 -- Midterm Elections.

The Sixth Year Itch-

1. On average, the President's party has lost three Senate seats in each of the 14 midterm elections, from 1950 to 2002.

2. In second term midterm elections (1950, 1958, 1966, 1974, 1986, and 1998), the average loss for the President's party is six Senate seats.

3. No President in the post-WWII era has ever gained Senate seats in the second term midterm elections.

Source:

-From Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball (Sabato is Director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia), April 5, 2005.

Yet, in spite of all the dire predictions of a messy breakup between conservatives and moderates, between libertarians and the religious right; despite all the talk about the irreconcilable differences between and among the paleocons and realists and neocons; and, contrary to the tides of history, we will predict, today, that the Republican Party will pick up seats in the Senate in 2006.

Is that going out on a limb?

Not particularly, given the ongoing Republican realignment and the specific races up for grabs in 2006. More on that to come (also, previous comments can be found here, here, and here).

In the long run, Republicans are well positioned to increase their numbers in both the Senate and the House...In the short run, very few Republicans run great political risks by supporting Bush. Significantly more Democrats run great political risks by opposing him.

UPDATE:

PoliPundit has more on 2006.

Previous trivia tidbits:

Part 1; Part 2; Part 3; Part 4; Part 5; Part 6; Part 7; Part 8; Part 9; Part 10; Part 11; Part 12.

Stay tuned to WILLisms.com for more daily trivia tidbits.

Posted by Will Franklin · 11 April 2005 10:09 AM

Comments

Good blog. I predict the Republicans will lose seats in the Senate (and the House) because President Bush is spending too much time on building a legacy. That includes his Social Security reform (doesn't fix anything anyway), his efforts to improve international trade (something many Republicans are against as well) and his job creation record that is still hurting him. Add to that some huge scandals such as the 10 scandals of Tom DeLay and the Memogate Scandal in Florida over Schiavo (something Americans overwhelmingly did not support), and I do believe Republicans will lose some seats. Not necessarily a lot, but a few to be certain.

Posted by: Joseph (Advocate of Democracy) at April 11, 2005 12:11 PM

I hope Tom DeLay doesn't lose his seat! I think he is courages and a strong leader for our country! I think the Dems. are making way too much out of nothing and that Republican dude from Connecticut is a dud! They have a scorched earth policy and are determined not to allow reoublicans to take advantage of their majority! They want to take Tom DeLay down because he has been such an effective Whip! That Senator From Connecticut is listening to the media too much. I think that the Dems. and the media seem choreographed and arranged so they can spin their little agendas.

Posted by: Zsa Zsa at April 11, 2005 07:06 PM