WILLisms.com: EU: French & Dutch, Non & Nee.

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EU: French & Dutch, Non & Nee.

It's crunch time. The final push is on.

On Sunday, May 29 France will hold its referendum on the European Union constitution. The Netherlands will follow suit shortly after, on Wednesday, June 1.

The "yes" crowd is making its final push in France to save Chirac from an embarrassing political loss:

The Economist magazine offers these two graphs, indicating both the French and the Dutch seem likely to reject their respective European Union referenda (premium content):

The Economist believes the "collapse of the E.U." dread or hope is overblown:

If angry French and Dutch voters do kill the constitution, expect a period of turbulence in Europe, especially on its financial markets-- and some stormy summits, as the EU’s leaders argue over what to do next. Debate would rage over which bits of the constitution could be implemented under existing treaties—some say much of it, some barely any. The leaders’ current rows—over such things as liberalising trade in services, the EU’s budget and the rebate Britain enjoys on its contributions—would get nastier. The process of admitting new member countries could slow a bit. But a collapse of the Union, as the doomsters warn? Highly unlikely. The EU would stumble on, under its present arrangements, until its leaders came up with a more convincing constitution, one whose vision of Europe’s future could win over its frustrated and suspicious voters.

Nevertheless, a rejection in France, quickly followed by another in The Netherlands, would deal the idea of a United States of Europe a serious blow. Expect a major, prolonged political upheaval in European politics, not to mention a moderate disruption in the European and global markets, beginning this Sunday in France.

Could Chirac, with his 39% approval rating, pull it off?

That is entirely possible. He went on national television for one final, desperate plea to the French to vote "oui" on the referendum:

The latest French poll has the "non" vote at 52%, down from 55% just a few days ago.

Let the games begin.

UPDATE:

"Non" now stands at 56%.

UPDATE 2:

William Kristol adds:

This is a moment of hope--for the prospects for a strong, pro-American, pro-liberty, more or less free-market and free-trade, socially and morally reinvigorated Europe.

Posted by Will Franklin · 27 May 2005 02:17 PM

Comments

Le`pew! Peppy Le`Pew... Jaques Chirac is a stinker. I hope he has lost his chance!

Posted by: Zsa Zsa at May 27, 2005 07:42 PM

NON to Jaques Chirac! Ta Ta to Chirac...

Posted by: Carly at May 28, 2005 02:46 PM

Jaques Chirac is Le` poo poo pew pew.

Posted by: Carly at May 28, 2005 03:40 PM

NON! No way! NOT! NO NO! NADA! NA! No more Jaques Chirac...NO Thank You!

Posted by: Taffy at May 28, 2005 03:44 PM

No thank you! It is really sad because France and the United States really need to be on better terms!

Posted by: Zsa Zsa at May 28, 2005 03:52 PM

Jacques Chirac: loser.

Posted by: Zsa Zsa at May 28, 2005 06:59 PM

Ourevoir! You arrogant anti-american butt head! NO no!

Posted by: Bob at May 28, 2005 07:23 PM

Chirac needs to go. If for no other reason than the fact that he has not been good for relations between the United States and France!

Posted by: Chip at May 28, 2005 08:46 PM

Chirac has some big time luggage under his eyes! Either he has been sipping too much of that French Champagne or he hasn't had enough sleep! Cucumbers are good for puffy eyes!

Posted by: Zsa Zsa at May 28, 2005 09:42 PM

Hickory dickory dock. Time is ticking for Jacques Chirac!

Posted by: Jody at May 29, 2005 06:19 PM