WILLisms.com: May 2005 Archives

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The Seldom Not Awkward Man Hug.

The Denver Post (via The Obscure Store blog) has a lengthy examination of the male hug:

The hug, long reserved for women, celebrating sports victories, and men from other countries, is muscling its way into everyday American Guydom.
Stoic machismo still thrives, but at its heels yaps a touchier, Dr. Phil version of virility. Boundaries are eroding. Defenses are being scaled.

The male hug is complicating everything.

Men accustomed to the automatic and dependable hand clasp accompanied with a brisk up-and-down pump at dinner parties and college reunions, now must preface their greetings or goodbyes with intricate and split-second calculations based on body language, length of friendship and other factors.

There's even different types of hugs:

The Hip Hop
Guys greet with handshakes of various styles, pull themselves in toward each other, then bump their inside shoulders.

The Half-and-Half

Guys greet each other with standard handshakes, then reach around each other's shoulders with their left arms and pat each other's backs.

The Bear

Guys dispense with handshakes altogether. When they greet, the left arm drapes over the partner's right shoulder; the right arm goes around the waist. The left hand usually pats the partner's back.

A somewhat humorous and very interesting read.

Posted by Will Franklin · 31 May 2005 10:45 PM · Comments (2)

For Political Junkies: 2008 Presidential Candidates.

Patrick Ruffini has a cool new feature on his blog called the 2008 Presidential Wire. Just go check it out. It's thoroughly promising, despite the kinks that will have to be worked out.

Posted by Will Franklin · 31 May 2005 09:27 PM · Comments (1)

The Economy & Presidential Approval Rating, Redux.

In recent weeks, there has been much hand-wringing about the President's approval ratings. Every blog and columnist and talking head has had a different explanation. It was either illegal immigration, or Terri Schiavo, or Social Security, or the theocons, or Iraq, or Bush himself, or any number of other factors that were allegedly bringing Bush's numbers down.

Each explanation was really said more about the individual making the claim than the actual political situation in America. Think of the explanations as a series of ink blot tests. The pet issues on which people wanted the President to lose ground, they simply asserted a connection. It's hard to disprove any of the explanations. It is not difficult to be intrigued by some of the more creative flavor-of-the-month explanations, as well, but unfortunately, the reality is pretty bland.

In late April, WILLisms.com explained that it was the economy, stupid. It almost always is. In a detailed post, we elaborated on the idea that Consumer Confidence and Presidential Approval are highly correlated.

Well, today, the President's Gallup poll numbers are up, right along with consumer confidence. Daly Thoughts is also all over it.

Check out the Consumer Confidence numbers over the past year:

Notice how the graph traces a path very similar to the President's slump about this time last year, which lasted until a rebound just prior to the election.

Rasmussen also indicates higher levels of consumer confidence.

So, what happened? The economy was performing roughly the same then, as it is today.

For one, the incessant drum beat on the local and national network news of "high gas prices will mean the end of civilization as we know it" has ceased.

Secondly, it's hard to argue with the ever-growing number of jobs that have been created in America over the past two years:

Gallup also indicates that Americans are finally becoming more confident about the economy:

Meanwhile, the President's approval rating rose accordingly, from a net minus 4 (approval - disapproval) to a net plus 1 (via PoliPundit).

If and when Americans perceive the economy at a commensurate level to reality, you can expect the President's numbers to improve further. If, somehow, Americans continue to view the economy in an irrationally pessimistic way, expect the President's numbers to remain low enough that emboldened Democrats will feel they can continue to get away with the kinds of antics we've seen over the past few weeks.

Unfortunately, despite almost daily indications of a strong economy (and getting stronger, especially relative to that of our European cousins), perception is reality in politics, and until the media coverage becomes more favorable on the economy, to reflect the reality out there, President Bush will likely hover near a ceiling of 50%.

Posted by Will Franklin · 31 May 2005 05:23 PM · Comments (1)

Some Call It A Bonfire/Carnival Of Classiness...

We call it "Classiness, All Around Us."

Click to explore more WILLisms.com.

In no particular order, WILLisms.com presents classiness from the blogosphere (now with 50% more classy!):

Ilario Pantano-

Pardon My English blogs notes that murder charges were finally dropped against U.S. Marine Lt. Ilario Pantano, the Gulf War veteran and Wall Street trader who rejoined the force after 9/11.

Red State Rant adds:

It not only reaffirms my faith, but hopefully that of our Warriors out there right now doing the fighting.

Ace of Spades HQ has more on the media's role in Pantano situation.

The liberal bias of CBS-

Captain's Quarters blog examines how CBS blatantly rigged its own poll to fit its narrative that Bush is out of touch with the American people.

PoliPundit has more on this should-be scandal:

Given Bush’s continued strong support among Republicans, which is his base, and given the recent evidence of strong political activism for Republicans (remember the high turnout in 2004?), any claim to mediocre or failing support must be regarded as suspect, especially where the demographics have been concealed or are known to be manipulated. This point should be kept in mind, when press releases from partisan sources show up.

The elite media still get away with this kind of treachery because so few people understand the science and art of polling. Polling methods are kept intentionally nebulous to keep the data vague and cryptic enough for use with just about whatever story the media want to tell.

The economy's marked improvement-

Daly Thoughts points out how state governments are once again flush with tax revenues, yet another indicator of a strengthening economy:

Ladies and gentlemen, the economy is starting to boom. Those expecting 2006 to be a repeat of 1994 are going to have to factor that into their calculus.

And, yet, many Americans today still tell pollsters they believe we're in a recession. That perception really has to turn around, or it will become a self-fulfilling prophesy.

Gorgeous George Galloway-

The Jawa Report examines the connection between George Galloway and Saddam Hussein, explaining that the Oil-For-Food money was likely a reward for anti-American ideology, rather than a bribe:

The ideology of the left divides the world into two groups: the powerful and the weak. It is the forgotten legacy of Marx that he rejected notions of good and evil in favor of a morality of power.
The left is unable to make any other moral distinction. Therefore Iraq is good because it is weak and the US/UK are bad because they are strong. Further, any position taken by any powerful country is seen as bad when such position pits weak countries against the strong.

The left around the world hates America because of her strength. America is bad, mmmmkay, because it is strong.

Which is worse, taking a bribe to support the Ba'athists, or supporting the Ba'athists because your worldview is already that warped to begin with?

Anonymous sources in journalism-

The neo-neocon blog traces the prolific use of anonymous sources by the media back to Watergate; it was perfected by Seymour Hersch.

Dean's World takes a look at "Journalistic Sickness," noting:

The press grabbed a collective halo for itself in the Watergate years. They didn't deserve one--Woodward and Bernstein deserved one maybe, but even they had the good sense to be embarrassed and uncomfortable with some of their own methods. The rest of the press shamelessly spent the next three decades trying to ride those coattails, and made themselves look worse and worse and worse all the time. The chickens have come home to roost: these people are despised for a reason, and it's not because some "right wing attack machine" is being mean to them.

China-

By Dawn's Early Light blog examines how "Rising Nationalism Will be China's Undoing," explaining:

China's recent moves, including the threatening of "non-peaceful means" to reunify Taiwan, can only be seen with a sense of wariness in Tokyo, New Delhi, Canberra and Seoul. All of these democratic nations can afford and are expanding their military capabilities. China would be well advised to walk with a softer footprint.
The question then is "Why is China making poor long-term diplomatic choices?" The answer I believe is to keep domestic pressure away from the current government and focused elsewhere.

France's red states-

Powerline blog looks at France's red states and blue states:

The destiny of any country that names elementary schools after Karl Marx was sealed long ago.

Patrick Ruffini, meanwhile, elaborates with a better map.

Schapelle Corby-

Coming Anarchy blog looks at the coming ramifications of Australian Schapelle Corby's likely bogus conviction and 20-year sentence in Indonesia:

...boycotts of Indonesia as a tourism destination could be devastating coming on top of an already existing decline in visitor numbers brought on by terrorism and the recent tsunami disaster.

Sharpies, Purell, and Altoids-

Ever wonder what the President's personal assistant carries around with him at all times? Ann Althouse has the answer.

10.

European clout in the world-

ChicagoBoyz blog looks at the interconnectedness of peacekeeping, force projection, and geopolitical strength:

Military historians and economists alike adhere to the theory that any great power must be able to protect their interests if they are to retain their status in the world. With today’s environment of globalization and the exploitation of foreign markets, this means that they will have to project force. Any other policy is a course towards decline and inevitable insignificance.

Old Europe, are you paying attention?

11.

John Bolton-

The Belgravia Dispatch examines the fight over John Bolton, offering:

...the problem that occurs when a blog becomes a monomaniacal crusade is that you can get a little (or a lot) carried away....
Again, please, perspective. Bolton is not the devil incarnate. He won't bring the wrecking ball to the international system. Or to the United Nations. And there is no plot to dismantle said world body cooked up between neo-Straussians and neo-primitives. Trust me, it will be O.K.

It is fascinating to watch how much political capital the left has been spending to demonize John Bolton, particularly when put into the context of the 2004 American election and Kerry's infamous "global test" comment. Do Democrats not believe in democracy? Do they really not believe that elections matter?

And, finally, what's the deal with Senate Democrats playing the separation of powers (Congress and the President are co-equal branches) card on this issue, with regard to classified documents? As a true believer in strong separation of powers, it's frustrating to see the minority party frame each and every issue in separation of powers terms, as if they speak for the entire Congress-- and get away with it in the elite media.

12.

Danica Patrick-

Outside The Beltway notes the bizarre lapse in logic of a certain NASCAR driver who claims Danica Patrick has an unfair advantage because of her small size. Wizbang agrees that Robby Gordon is an idiot:

Maturity is where Gordon is carrying less of a load than his competition.

Danica is part talent, part hype, but it's hard not to buy into the hype, whole-heartedly. Who knew FHM models could drive so well?

13.

Mitt Romney-

No Left Turns examines the 2008 electoral chances for Mitt Romney, who happens to be a Mormon:

Romney’s political opponents have in the past reminded voters of the social conservatism of the LDS church. Would they do so again? Not likely in a Republican primary. In a general election, who knows?

If (and it's a huge "if") Mitt Romney wins the GOP nomination, you can bet there will be a not-so-subtle anti-Mormon campaign from the left in the general election. Guaranteed. And the elite media will willingly help them out.

14.

Congress-

Patrick Ruffini comments on "Congress for Dummies," explaining:

The last four months, and especially the last four days, have been an object lesson in why those with no executive experience seldom make it to the White House.

A must-read piece for the hand-wringers.

15.

Scandal in Tennessee-

Michelle Malkin notes the conspicuous and typical media double-standard in the listing of party affiliation next to the names of scandal-plagued politicians:

AP neglects to mention the party affiliation of Tennessee state senator John Ford, who resigned after being placed under house arrest in an FBI corruption sting. Hint: he ain't a Republican.

Exactly what the blogosphere is for, to keep tabs on the terminally biased left-wing media.

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Also, don't forget to check out all the old Trivia Tidbits Of the Day, the Reform Thursday series, the Quotational Therapy sessions, and the Wednesday Caption Contest (entries are due each Tuesday at 11:59 PM Central Standard Time).

Previous Certifications of Classiness from WILLisms.com:

March 3, 2005;

March 9, 2005;

March 15, 2005;

March 22, 2005;

March 29, 2005;

April 5, 2005;

April 12, 2005;

April 19, 2005;

and

WILLisms.com offers a weekly classiness roundup as a weekly feature, every Tuesday, with 15 blog posts deemed classy. The criteria for submissions: incisive original analysis, quirky topics nobody else is covering, fantastic graphics, or other posts that took a lot of work. We love to spread the word on upcoming blogs, being that WILLisms.com also fits that description. If you would like to nominate a post on your blog or another blog for inclusion, email us at WILLisms@gmail.com. Write "Classy Nomination" in the subject. The deadline is each Monday at 11:59 PM Central Time.

Classy.

Posted by Will Franklin · 31 May 2005 09:26 AM · Comments (4)

Trivia Tidbit Of The Day: Part 63 -- Bad Drivers.

BEST AND WORST DRIVERS-

Notice a trend at all?

Hawaii and Alaska were not included, but if political affiliations are any indication (which, really, they aren't), it's safe to say that Alaska would likely be in the top half, while Hawaii would be in the botton half.

Texas, incidentally, ranks precisely at the national average.

Source:

GMAC Insurance National Driver's Test, from CNN (via Outside The Beltway).

Previous trivia tidbits:

Part 1; Part 2; Part 3; Part 4; Part 5; Part 6; Part 7; Part 8; Part 9; Part 10; Part 11; Part 12; Part 13; Part 14; Part 15; Part 16; Part 17; Part 18; Part 19; Part 20; Part 21, Part 22; Part 23, Part 24, Part 25; Part 26; Part 27, Part 28; Part 29; Part 30, Part 31; Part 32; Part 33; Part 34; Part 35; Part 36; Part 37; Part 38; Part 39; Part 40; Part 41; Part 42; Part 43; Part 44; Part 45; Part 46; Part 47; Part 48; Part 49; Part 50; Part 51; Part 52; Part 53; Part 54; Part 55; Part 56; Part 57; Part 58; Part 59; Part 60; Part 61; Part 62.

Daily Trivia Tidbits cover a wide range of topics, and they're usually not trivial at all; you never know what you might find. Stay tuned to WILLisms.com for more.

Have a trivia tidbit tip? Send it over to WILLisms@gmail.com with citation.

Posted by Will Franklin · 31 May 2005 09:13 AM · Comments (3)

Still More Positive Polling On Social Security Reform.

This is getting tedious. A poll showing broad support for Social Security is released. The elite media subsequently ignore it. It's happened countless times in the past few months. Prepare for it to happen again.

It's become common wisdom in the elite media, along with much of even the conservative/libertarian blogosphere, that Social Security reform "isn't gaining political traction" or, more crudely, "is dead in the water."

Personal accounts, we're told incessantly, are wildly unpopular, or, at best, not something regular people would ever go out of their way to support. The special interest groups, we were told, with myriad unique vested interests in the dysfunctional status quo, would rally their pseudo-Marxist warrior-luddite activists against reform, killing a pro-growth, pro-choice Social Security reform plan, all while politically wounding President Bush and anyone else who grabbed on to the traditional third rail of politics.

Failure to convince Americans on the issue would mean instant lame duck status. Bush's 60-day tour, the nattering nabobs of negativity maintain, was a flop, a disaster, and it actually set back the cause of reform.

As Lee Corso, the intentionally dumb-and-annoying-but-lovable ESPN football analyst would say, "NOT SO FAST, MY FRIEND."

Yet another new poll has great news for the President in his push to rescue Social Security from the radical status quo-ers, this time from Zogby. The Washington Times has the Social Security reform poll numbers:

First, before you can have a consensus for reform, you must have a consensus that there is something wrong and in need of fixing.

Voters by 62 percent to 30 percent remained deeply skeptical about Social Security's promise to pay future benefits. Skepticism was highest among younger voters, with more than 70 percent saying they doubted that the system would be able to pay their benefits when they reached retirement age.

So, the 60-day tour and other speeches DID WORK in convincing Americans about the necessity of reform? Shocking. Scandalous, even.

And, in terms of President Bush's reform principles, Americans also expressed solid support.

Bush's Social Security reform plan (all Americans)-
52% support reform
40% oppose reform

Then, there's the case of Rock the Vote, and its woefully out-of-touch, reactionary position on the issue:

Under 30-
66% support reform
23% oppose reform

Contrast Rock the Vote's anti-reform agenda with the refreshing voice of Students for Saving Social Security. It's night and day, and, once again, Rock the Vote demonstrates how it has become an arm of the far-left-wing of the increasingly out-of-the-mainstream Democratic Party, while eschewing its ostensible purpose, giving voice to the political concerns of young people.

Between 30 and 50-
58% support reform
37% oppose reform

Over 65 (who, remember, wouldn't be affected at all by the President's reforms)-
40% support reform
52% oppose reform

Over 70-
38% support reform
55% oppose reform

Again, the only potential negative political fallout from reforming Social Security (the right way) would come from the New Deal age cohort and older. But, because reform would leave the program intact for older voters, they would "still get their checks," as "Stump Speech Bush" famously and repeatedly articulates. Because they would still get their checks, there is zero reason for seniors to revolt in 2006 or 2008 on the issue. Zero.

Campaigns tend to clarify issues, and if a reform package is passed this year, it will be easy to make the case in 2006 that, "hey, you're still getting your checks, aren't you? Well, we saved Social Security so your grandkids can get theirs 40 years from now."

End of story.

Any Congressional Republican (ahem, Ginny Brown-Waite) worried about losing votes (ahem, Katherine Harris) because of support for Social Security reform is either cowardly-- or, more likely, lazy (and doesn't want to expend the energy explaining her own winning ideas). If a Republican legislator in a district concentrated with elderly voters cannot defend her support for Social Security reform in a campaign, and, furthermore, cannot explain the simple and undeniable fact that seniors will see no changes in the entirely optional reform, maybe that legislator isn't really Congressional material to begin with.

Rest assured, President Bush is an effective campaigner on behalf of fellow Republicans in close races. Look no further than his coattails in 2002 and 2004, elections in which the President's incumbent party, remarkably, and against the long-standing historical pattern, actually improved its governing majorities in both chambers of Congress. Meanwhile, Democrats from states Bush won in 2000 and 2004 should pay heed to polls such as these. Bush is a relentless campaigner for Republicans, but he is also a ruthless campaigner against obstructionist Democrats. Lame duck or not, President Bush has the power to make or break the political fortunes of many members of Congress; added majorities in 2006 would allow Bush to shake the lame duck status and accomplish a few more big agenda items, so you know he's not going to "front porch" it. He's even said as much, warning, "those who block meaningful reform are going to be held to account in the polls."

But, can't Democrats just stand back and let the Republicans flail and drown in the negative and biased media current? Isn't "no" a winning strategy?

No.

The Zogby poll found:

"By an overwhelming 70-22 percent margin, voters believe that opponents of President Bush's proposals for Social Security reform have an obligation to put out their own plan for reforming the program," including 55 percent of Democratic voters, Mr. Zogby said in a report of his findings.

Where's the plan, Harry Reid? Where's the plan Nancy Pelosi?

Merely saying "no dice" to necessary reform is not a plan, it's 1930s left-wing dogma.

In Red States (Bush won in 2004)-
57% support reform
36% oppose reform

In Blue States (Kerry won in 2004)-
48% support reform
44% oppose reform

You think this poll, in the elite media, will garner breathless headlines and generate ample discussion about how the President has succeeded in making the case for reform to the American people? If the past few months of excrutiatingly biased (.pdf) reporting on the Social Security issue are any indication, not a chance. How many of these supportive polls (ones actually responsive to the real issues) do we have to have before the establishment media, so wrong, so often, finally declare that the political momentum on the issue is solidly behind the President?

UPDATE:

Cato adds:

*53% of union members also support personal accounts.
*Independents support personal accounts to the tune of 55%-33%.
*Self-described moderates support personal accounts 48%-45%.

Posted by Will Franklin · 31 May 2005 05:15 AM · Comments (9)

Two Worthy Carnivals.

Carnival of Revolutions.

Carnival of the Capitalists.

Check 'em out!

Posted by Will Franklin · 30 May 2005 10:36 AM · Comments (0)

Memorial Day.

Today, Memorial Day, we honor those who fought and died for the United States of America, the land, the people, and the idea. We should strive each day to keep America, with our freedom of speech and religion, our fair system of justice and our robust free enterprise system, our rights and our privileges, all worth fighting for.

After the Declaration of Independence was signed, on July 4, 1776, John Adams explained the meaning of sacrifice:

"I am well aware of the toil and blood and treasure that it will cost to maintain this Declaration, and support and defend these States. Yet through all the gloom I can see the rays of ravishing light and glory. I can see that the end is worth more than all the means."

Honoring the sacrifice of the heroes of the American Revolution, past, present, and future is the very least we can do this day.

Take a moment today, in between the barbecue and the trip to the lake, between running errands and lounging around the house, between the yard work and the movie theater, between paying the bills and surfing the blogs, to remember why there's a day called Memorial Day.

Quotational Therapy: Part 15 -- Thomas Paine, On Revolution.

The American Revolution, then, now, and always-

"We have it in our power to begin the world over again."

-Thomas Paine, Common Sense, 1776.

"We fight not to enslave, but to set a country free, and to make room upon the earth for honest men to live in."

-Thomas Paine, The American Crisis, No. 4, September 11, 1777.

Source:
The Founders' Almanac.

Previous Quotational Therapy Sessions:

Part 1; Part 2; Part 3; Part 4; Part 5; Part 6; Part 7; Part 8; Part 9; Part 10; Part 11; Part 12; Part 13; Part 14.

The right quotation can be therapeutic, so tune in to WILLisms.com for quotational therapy every Monday and Friday.

Posted by Will Franklin · 30 May 2005 09:44 AM · Comments (1)

Trivia Tidbit Of The Day: Part 62 -- Memorial Day.

MEMORIAL DAY-

- The number of U.S. armed forces personnel who served in World War II between Dec. 1, 1941, and Dec. 31, 1946 was 16.1 million.
- The average length of active-duty by U.S. military personnel during WWII was 33 months.

- The proportion of U.S. military personnel who served abroad during WWII was 73 percent.

- The average time U.S. personnel served overseas during WWII was 16 months.

- A total of 292,000 U.S. soldiers, sailors, airmen and marines were killed in battle in WWII.

- The number of other deaths sustained by U.S. forces during WWII was 114,000.

- 671,000 U.S. troops were wounded during WWII.

- 5.7 million World War II veterans were counted in the 2000 Census. The census identified the period of service for World War II veterans as September 1940 to July 1947.

- The estimated number of WWII veterans living in California in 2002 was 475,000, the most in any state. Other states with high numbers of WWII vets included Florida (439,000), New York (284,000), Pennsylvania (280,000), Texas (267,000) and Ohio (208,000).

- The estimated number of women in 2002 who were WWII veterans was 210,000. These women comprised 4.4 percent of WWII vets.

- The proportion of all veterans in April 2000 who were WWII veterans, was 22 percent.

- The median age of WWII veterans when the last census was conducted was 76.7 years old.

- The proportion of WWII veterans who were still employed in 2000 was 11.6 percent.

- The number of WWII veterans in 2002 who received compensation for service-connected disabilities was 440,000, about half the number in 1990 (876,000) and nearly two-thirds less than the nearly 1.2 million disabled WWII vets in 1980.

- The projected national expenditure for veteran’s benefits in 2004 was $62 billion.

Source:

The History Channel.

Previous trivia tidbits:

Daily Trivia Tidbits cover a wide range of topics, and they're usually not trivial at all; you never know what you might find. Stay tuned to WILLisms.com for more.

Have a trivia tidbit tip? Send it over to WILLisms@gmail.com with citation.

Posted by Will Franklin · 30 May 2005 09:23 AM · Comments (1)

Belarus As An Old-School Sphere Of Influence.

The die has been cast. Belarus, next year, is scheduled for an epic showdown in the ongoing march of liberty around the world.

Russian News & Information Agency (NOVOSTI) believes the writing is on the wall in Belarus; the repressive (.pdf) Lukashenko regime's days are numbered, and, at this point it is only a matter of time allowing history to unfold:

Russia fears relying even on pro-Russian centrist forces in Belarus, thinking that this could lead to Russia's geopolitical defeat.
Rahr said Lukashenko's behavior resembled that of a Central Asian autocratic leader. But Central Asian republics have oil and gas, which they can sell to the West and spare their leaders. Lukashenko has nothing with which to buy Western sympathy or condescension.

The Belarussian opposition has established political contacts with the outside world and Lukashenko's authoritarian policy has helped it to rally. Several years ago, the opposition was mostly a dissident group, but now it is increasingly becoming a political opposition challenging the authorities.

Lukashenko is losing Russia's support, Rahr said, by hindering integration and making mistakes in economic cooperation. The events in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, where desperation provoked by social and economic hardships forced the people to protest openly, are also possible in Belarus.

Meanwhile, Interfax explains that the Belarussian opposition will sample from the strategies of Ukraine's Orange Revolution in its 2006 presidential election:

One of the Belarussian opposition leaders, Anatoly Lebedko, told a Friday press conference in Kyiv that the electoral campaign in Belarus will be very intense, but the opposition may succeed in taking Alexander Lukashenko down form the post of president.
"We have a strong political will to make 2006 an important year and we intend to fight for victory," Lebedko said.

The opposition must field a credible candidate, which may or may not be Anatoly Lebedko:

Belarussian political forces are holding consultations on a common opposition candidate in the 2006 presidential elections, opposition co-leader Anatoly Lebedko told a Friday press conference in Kiev.
“There are Belarussian politicians who can become worthy opponents to the incumbent chief of state,” he said. “If there is such a candidate, Alexander Lukashenko will have slim chances to win.”

Lebedko referred to recent opinion polls, which showed that only 42% of the respondents were ready to support Lukashenko.

Some background on Lebedko:

Lebedko is not yet known outside of opposition circles. Unlike the new Ukrainian president, Viktor Yushchenko, Lebedko is not wealthy and has never been prime minister. But he does share one experience with the Ukrainian: Both men have come close to death at the hands of foes.
Last Oct. 18, Lebedko joined 5,000 protesters on Minsk's October Square demonstrating against elections that were marred by ballot-box stuffing, intimidation of candidates and falsification of election returns.

Lebedko was an obvious target: At 43, he heads the pro-free-market United Civic Party and is the front-runner for the democratic Five-Plus Coalition's presidential nomination.

Lebedko says security agents forced him into a pizza parlor across the street from October Square. They beat him for several minutes, then he fell unconscious. He remembers waking up in the restaurant and the police chief slapping him in the face. Then he blacked out again and awoke in a moving car. After arriving at the police station, he said, he felt ill and was taken to a hospital.

Nurses urged Lebedko's wife Svetlana not to leave the patient's side. "They said someone should always watch what medicines they were putting in me,'' Lebedko said, alluding to the secret police lurking in the hospital corridors. After five days in the hospital, Lebedko spent three weeks at home recuperating. The attack - and his ongoing perseverance - elevated him from a cerebral, almost gentle former student of French history to a serious political contender.

Vladimir Putin must ask himself whether Lukashenko, and keeping Belarus under the wing of the Russian Bear, is worth the international scorn. If Putin sticks his neck out again, like he did in supporting Viktor Yanukovich in Ukraine late last year, it will almost certainly lead to yet another embarrassing geopolitical loss. The risk of another miscalculation, this time in Belarus, could even potentially impact domestic politics in Russia. Bringing Belarus back under the Russian aegis, meanwhile, would be a big win for Putin, strengthening his hand both at home and in the other nations formerly behind the Iron Curtain. Thus, the stakes are high in Belarus. Putin will either go all in, or fold; we will likely know how Russia will play its cards long before the election.

Lukashenko will probably not go down without a messy, perhaps even bloody, fight; while the Belarussian opposition will model itself on the effective opposition in Ukraine, Belarus is far less democratic, its dictator far more brutal, therefore its democratic reformers will have to work that much harder-- and smarter, to achieve their goals.

President Bush, meanwhile, having signed the Belarus Democracy Act of 2004, asserted that the "fate of Belarus will rest not with a dictator, but with the students, trade unionists, civic and religious leaders, journalists, and all citizens of Belarus claiming freedom for their nation."

UPDATE:

The American Spectator has more on Lukashenko and Belarus.

Posted by Will Franklin · 29 May 2005 01:02 PM · Comments (10)

Trivia Tidbit Of The Day: Part 61 -- Most Prestigious Jobs.

THE MOST PRESTIGIOUS JOBS-

If people really thought about it, and how they would react upon hearing their sister or daughter or granddaughter is going to marry a _________, this list might look very different.

Source:

USA TODAY (via Marginal Revolution blog).

Previous trivia tidbits:

Daily Trivia Tidbits cover a wide range of topics, and they're usually not trivial at all; you never know what you might find. Stay tuned to WILLisms.com for more.

Have a trivia tidbit tip? Send it over to WILLisms@gmail.com with citation.

Posted by Will Franklin · 29 May 2005 08:58 AM · Comments (5)

More On The E.U. Referenda.

A great read on the upcoming EU referenda, from The Scotsman:

Between 1985 and 1994, annual US economic growth was 0.7% higher than in the Eurozone; between 1995 and 2004 the gap widened to 1.2%. In that latter period, growth of output per worker in America rose to 2.1% per annum; in the Eurozone, it slumped from 1.9% to 1%. In 1960, when the European Economic Community (EEC) was just three years old, US employment stood at 36% of the population; today it has risen to slightly under 48%. In Europe, the figure has stagnated at 43%, but even that is a false prospectus since much of it is due to expansion in public sector employment.
Beyond that, the tax burden in the United States is the same as 30 years ago, at 25% of national income. In Europe over the same three decades the burden has risen from 33% to above 40%, the heaviest rates being in the core economies of France, Germany and Italy.

Patrick Ruffini adds:

Of course, the Non victory on Sunday may be more Episode IV than Episode VI in the rebellion against the European Empire. The Times of London reports on Chiraq's plans to defy his people's Non, principally at the expense of our British ally. That shouldn't surprise us. Whenever a nation gives "the wrong answer" in a referendum on Europe, out-of-touch europhile elites call a mulligan and resubmit a "renegotiated" treaty before a weary public, who usually succumb.
Here's hoping this is not one of those times.

Whichever way the voting goes in France and The Netherlands, it is bound to put Tony Blair in a sticky situation, as he assumes the EU presidency on July 1.

UPDATE:

Mark Steyn has more great comments on the matter.

Posted by Will Franklin · 28 May 2005 09:15 PM · Comments (0)

Girl Power!

Girls will one day rule this world. There's very little doubt of that.

At my little sister's high school graduation today, girls ruled the top honors. Well, mostly.

Both the valedictorian and the salutatorian were guys; so was the fifth ranked graduate. But girls earned 7 of the top 10 spots. Of the remaining 43 "High Honor Graduates," 28 were female, while only 15 were male. Of the next 112 "Honor Graduates," 71 were female, while only 41 were male.

So, girls just plain ruled the school:

TOP TEN-
70%

ALL "HIGH HONOR" GRADS-
66%

NON-TOP-TEN "HIGH HONOR" GRADS-
65%

"HONOR" GRADS-
63%

...and this same scenario is playing out in high schools across the country.

And, just for reference, of the top 10 (it's a suburban Houston school):
*4 The University of Texas at Austin
*2 Texas A&M University
*2 UT-Dallas
*1 Rice
*1 Texas Christian University

Girl Power!

Posted by Will Franklin · 28 May 2005 08:40 PM · Comments (7)

Congratulations To All The Graduates Of The Class Of 2005.

Happy graduation, Carly. Never thought you'd make it.

Just kidding.

Or am I?

No, really: Congrats!

And congrats from WILLisms.com to the rest of the class of 2005. Each of you is special in your own weird, awkward, little way.

Posted by Will Franklin · 28 May 2005 08:36 AM · Comments (6)

Trivia Tidbit Of The Day: Part 60 -- Global Energy Demand.

GLOBAL OIL DEMAND-

Source:

The Lamp, ExxonMobil's quarterly shareholders publication.

Previous trivia tidbits:

Daily Trivia Tidbits cover a wide range of topics, and they're usually not trivial at all; you never know what you might find. Stay tuned to WILLisms.com for more.

Have a trivia tidbit tip? Send it over to WILLisms@gmail.com with citation.

Posted by Will Franklin · 28 May 2005 08:02 AM · Comments (2)

Japanese Soldiers, Still Fighting For Hirohito?

Sixty years after World War II ended, two elderly Japanese men have come forward claiming to be "stragglers," soldiers left behind in the Phillipines, never, for so many years, cognizant of Emperor Hirohito's unconditional surrender:

IT is either a cruel hoax, or a near miracle. Yesterday, Japanese diplomats in the Philippines were struggling to confirm the identities of two men, said to be former soldiers of the Imperial Army left behind in 1945 who have been living in the jungle for sixty years.
Despite initial optimism, and intense excitement in the Japanese media, officials from the Japanese Embassy in Manila were not ruling out the possibility of a hoax. But if true, the discovery of the soldiers would be one of the most remarkable survivals of the war.

Nakauchi Tsuzuki:

So, where have they allegedly been all this time?

Here:

This story is so unbelievable, that it must raise a healthy level of skepticism with just about anyone.

One likely scenario: The two probably were war "stragglers" at one point, maybe even for an extended period of time, but they decided to stay in the Phillipines for whatever reason.

Some background on other Japanese soldiers who held out for decades, not knowing the war was over.

Even if these particular cases turn out to be hoaxes, there have been other, similar cases over the years. That these men would hold out for so long underscores precisely the Japanese wartime ethos that compelled President Truman to make the fateful decision (a no-brainer at the time) to dispatch the "Enola Gay" with Little Boy and "Bock's Car" with Fat Man. As terrible as the nuclear fallout was, it likely hastened the end of the war, saving millions of lives.

Posted by Will Franklin · 27 May 2005 06:20 PM · Comments (11)

EU: French & Dutch, Non & Nee.

It's crunch time. The final push is on.

On Sunday, May 29 France will hold its referendum on the European Union constitution. The Netherlands will follow suit shortly after, on Wednesday, June 1.

The "yes" crowd is making its final push in France to save Chirac from an embarrassing political loss:

The Economist magazine offers these two graphs, indicating both the French and the Dutch seem likely to reject their respective European Union referenda (premium content):

The Economist believes the "collapse of the E.U." dread or hope is overblown:

If angry French and Dutch voters do kill the constitution, expect a period of turbulence in Europe, especially on its financial markets-- and some stormy summits, as the EU’s leaders argue over what to do next. Debate would rage over which bits of the constitution could be implemented under existing treaties—some say much of it, some barely any. The leaders’ current rows—over such things as liberalising trade in services, the EU’s budget and the rebate Britain enjoys on its contributions—would get nastier. The process of admitting new member countries could slow a bit. But a collapse of the Union, as the doomsters warn? Highly unlikely. The EU would stumble on, under its present arrangements, until its leaders came up with a more convincing constitution, one whose vision of Europe’s future could win over its frustrated and suspicious voters.

Nevertheless, a rejection in France, quickly followed by another in The Netherlands, would deal the idea of a United States of Europe a serious blow. Expect a major, prolonged political upheaval in European politics, not to mention a moderate disruption in the European and global markets, beginning this Sunday in France.

Could Chirac, with his 39% approval rating, pull it off?

That is entirely possible. He went on national television for one final, desperate plea to the French to vote "oui" on the referendum:

The latest French poll has the "non" vote at 52%, down from 55% just a few days ago.

Let the games begin.

UPDATE:

"Non" now stands at 56%.

UPDATE 2:

William Kristol adds:

This is a moment of hope--for the prospects for a strong, pro-American, pro-liberty, more or less free-market and free-trade, socially and morally reinvigorated Europe.

Posted by Will Franklin · 27 May 2005 02:17 PM · Comments (10)

Quotational Therapy: Part 14 -- Barry Goldwater, On Creeping Socialism.

BARRY GOLDWATER, ON CREEPING SOCIALISM-

For many years it appeared that the principal domestic threat to our freedom was contained in the doctrines of Karl Marx. The collectivists-- non-Communists as well as Communists-- had adopted the Marxist objective of "socializing the means of production." And so it seemed that collectivization were imposed, it would take the form of a State owned and operated economy. I doubt whether this is the main threat any longer.
The collectivists have found, both in this country and in other industrialized nations of the West, that free enterprise has removed the economic and social conditions that might have made a class struggle possible. Mammoth productivity, wide distribution of wealth, high standards of living, the trade union movement-- these and other factors have eliminated whatever incentive there might have been for the "proletariat" to rise up, peaceably or otherwise, and assume direct ownership of productive property. Significantly, the bankruptcy of doctrinaire Marxism has been expressly acknowledged by the Socialist Part of West Germany, and by the dominant faction of the Socialist Part of Great Britain. In this country the abandonment of the Marxist approach (outside the Communist Party, of course) is attested to by the negligible strength of the Socialist Part, and more tellingly perhaps, by the content of left wing literature and by the programs of left wing political organizations such as the Americans For Democratic Action.

The currently favored instrument of collectivization is the Welfare State. The collectivists have not abandoned their ultimate goal-- to subordinate the individual to the State-- but their strategy has changed. They have learned that Socialism can be achieved through Welfarism quite as well as through Nationalization. They understand that private property can be confiscated as effectively by taxation as by expropriating it. They understand that the individual can be put at the mercy of the State-- not only by making the State his employer-- but by divesting him of the means to provide for his personal needs and by giving the State the responsibility of caring for those needs from cradle to grave. Moreover, they have discovered-- and here is the critical point-- that Welfarism is much more compatible with the political processes of a democratic society. Nationalization ran into popular opposition, but the collectivists feel sure the Welfare State can be erected by the simple expedient of buying votes with promises of "free" hospitalization, "free" retirement pay and so on....

I do not welcome this shift of strategy. Socialism-through-Welfarism poses a far greater danger to freedom than Socialism-through-Nationalization precisely because it is more difficult to combat. The evils of Nationalization are self-evident and immediate. Those of Welfarism are veiled and tend to be postponed.

Barry Goldwater, The Conscience of a Conservative, 1960.

Previous Quotational Therapy Sessions:

Part 1; Part 2; Part 3; Part 4; Part 5; Part 6; Part 7; Part 8; Part 9; Part 10; Part 11; Part 12; Part 13.

The right quotation can be therapeutic, so tune in to WILLisms.com for quotational therapy every Monday and Friday.

Posted by Will Franklin · 27 May 2005 09:03 AM · Comments (3)

Trivia Tidbit Of The Day: Part 59 -- Abortion.

ABORTION STATISTICS-

Research tends to indicate that those who have been aborted would have been likely to have abortions themselves down the line. Notice, thus, how the abortion rate for young women begins to fall precisely 15 years following Roe v. Wade.

The downward trend for all women, meanwhile, happened a little, but not much, later:

Minorities account for an ever-increasing share of abortions, while white women are having fewer and fewer abortions as a share of all abortions:

Sources:

The Alan Guttmacher Institute (.pdf).

Also, for more debunking of the claim that abortions have risen under the Bush administration, prominently made by Senators Clinton and Kerry, as well as DNC Chairman Dean, see FactCheck.org.

Wizbang has more on Howard Dean's true motives.

Previous trivia tidbits:

Daily Trivia Tidbits cover a wide range of topics, and they're usually not trivial at all; you never know what you might find. Stay tuned to WILLisms.com for more.

Have a trivia tidbit tip? Send it over to WILLisms@gmail.com with citation.

Posted by Will Franklin · 27 May 2005 08:25 AM · Comments (5)

Angela Merkel, New Hope For Germany, U.S.?

Meet Angela Merkel. This 50-year-old very well may be the next Chancellor of Germany, as well as the best hope for a thawing in American-German relations. She would also be Germany's first female Chancellor. The Washington Times calls her, "a bland East German who is unloved by voters."

The Globe and Mail, meanwhile, compares her to another powerful female political figure of the 20th century:

Angela Merkel is poised to unseat a generation of German leadership this summer, as the country finds itself plunged into a national election that could very well turn this radical, market-oriented reformer, who has been likened to Margaret Thatcher in both her ideology and her personal comportment, into the next German chancellor.

Spiegel explains:

...when it comes to Bush, she has done everything she can to distance herself from Schroeder's antagonistic stance and present herself as a great friend of the United States. A new, and more amicable trans-Atlantic era between Germany and the US may be on the horizon.
"Trans-Atlantic relations would be very much more relaxed" under Merkel, says Peter Fischer-Bollin, a trans-Atlantic expert with the pro-CDU Konrad Adenauer Stiftung in Berlin. "On the one hand because of specific positions ... and on the other hand, the tone of discussions that are currently taking place would be much milder. The relationship of trust would improve.... I think perhaps that the people in the CDU are much more pro-trans-Atlantic than those in the current government."

Merkel has spent much of the last four years underlining that impression. While Schroeder spent much of 2002 and 2003 reiterating his categoric refusal to be drawn into Iraq, Merkel was busy making friends in Washington. In February 2003, she was even received by US Vice President Dick Cheney. While she was critical of America's unilateral approach -- criticism that became even more vocal within her party following the Abu Ghraib torture scandal -- she expressed cautious support for Bush's aggressive Iraq policies before and during the war by saying, "It is wrong to separate the issues of terrorism and Saddam Hussein. We need to see things from the perspective of the United States."

Regarding some specific foreign policy issues, here's how a Merkel-led Germany might approach them-

Iraq:

Chancellor Merkel would likely not throw Germany's skeptical attitude to Iraq overboard. The country is still very much against any German involvement in Iraq and it is highly unlikely that President Bush would embarrass her by asking for added German support.

China:

Merkel's vocal skepticism of Schroeder's support for the lifting of the European Union arms embargo against China -- a spring 2005 proposal that Bush came out strongly against -- is also likely to endear her to the Bush administration. And, while Bush was clearly worried primarily about confronting European-made weapons in a potential conflict with China over Taiwan -- and secondarily about human rights abuses in China -- Merkel based her argument solidly on the foundation of US-Germany relations. Lifting the embargo, she said in April of this year, "would endanger trans-Atlantic defense cooperation."

Germany permanently on the United Nations Security Council:

Merkel... has expressed cautious support for the idea of a German UN Security Council seat -- although she has couched her endorsement in language that would allow her to quickly back away from the position should it engender too much international opposition. A likely backup position would be support for a combined European Union seat.

Turkey in the E.U.:

Merkel and the CDU have been vocal in their rejection of the idea of Turkish membership. In October of 2004, she even went so far as to call for a petition to be created opposing Turkey's EU ambitions and promoting a so-called "privileged partnership," which would increase economic cooperation between the EU and Turkey, but essentially leave Turkey on the outside looking in. Bush, on the other hand, has been a major cheerleader in Turkey's attempts to gain membership in the European club. He sees Turkey as a potential role model for other countries in the Middle East due to Turkey's embrace of secular democracy.

Bulgaria and Romania in the European Union:

Germany's Christian Democrats:

...would urge the European Union to suspend plans to admit Romania and Bulgaria if French voters reject the EU constitution in a referendum May 29.

Russia and Putin:

Having grown up in East Germany, Merkel is:

...more in line with Washington over Russia, being more willing to press Moscow on human rights and democracy than is Schroeder, who has cultivated a cozy personal relationship with President Vladimir Putin.

Mostly, though, the tone will change, and for the better. The counterproductive deep freeze, initiated by Schroeder, will thaw. Merkel, and her Christian Democratic Union (CDU), will breathe new life into the crucial geopolitical relationship between the United States and Germany.

The Economist explains that Merkel's agenda might get Germany's economy back on track:

...witness her long list of planned reforms, which are quite radical in the German context: simplifying tax, overhauling pensions, reducing job protection and curbing the trade unions.

Schroeder, in 2002, was also down in the polls, but he squeaked out a marginal victory by speaking strongly against the U.S.-led war in Iraq. Could he pull off the same kind of come-from-behind victory again?

Not likely. In this election, with the unemployment rate perpetually near 12%, and the lowest business confidence level in two years, it's truly the economy, stupid:

Germany's economy, Europe's largest, is projected by the European Commission to be the slowest-growing in the 25-nation European Union this year. Unemployment, which Schroeder vowed to reduce, has risen by 1 million people to 5 million since he took office in 1998. Gross domestic product has risen more than 1 percent in only one of the past four years.

Schroeder recently tried playing the anti-American card once again, to no avail:

Even recently, Schroeder's Social Democratic (SPD) party launched a strident discussion on capitalism in a last ditch attempt to gain votes for the now lost North-Rhine Westphalia elections. The phantom menace painted by Schroeder and his party was neo-liberal market policy and international capitalists. Many understood the attacks coming from SPD headquarters as sloppily disguised anti-Americanism -- a strategy that has served Schroeder well in the past.

So what are the odds of Schroeder engineering a miraculous comeback?

Not so hot:

The Christian Democrats now control 10 of Germany's 16 states and the latest poll data show them taking 46 percent of the electorate compared to 29 percent for Mr. Schroeder's party if elections were held today.

The German election is in September, so much could happen between now and then, but, barring an economic miracle, Schroeder has no chance. When Gerhard Schroeder's day of political reckoning comes, it will be good riddance to a superlative polluter of international relations.

UPDATE:

Nice read from the WSJ.

Posted by Will Franklin · 26 May 2005 08:59 PM · Comments (6)

George Voinovich, Losing It.

George Voinovich is officially cracking under the pressure of his responsibilities as a United States Senator:

Ohio Sen. George Voinovich choked back tears on the Senate floor Wednesday as he pleaded with colleagues to vote against John Bolton's nomination for United Nations ambassador.