WILLisms.com: Hillary Clinton's Presidential Hopes.

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Hillary Clinton's Presidential Hopes.

Hillary Clinton will never become President of the United States of America. Not in 2008, not in 2012, and not beyond that. It's simply not gonna happen.

Hillary's lack of a real shot at the White House does not mean she should be taken lightly. On the contrary, Hillary is a shrewd and calculating politician, a voracious fundraiser, and much of the establishment media desperately wants to see her elected. But she's still not going to be elected president. Count on it.

In an attempt to wound Hillary's electoral chances early enough, a new 527 group called Stop Her Now has put team Hillary on high alert. It's website notes:

Hillary Clinton has already started her political make-over, and the mainstream press has no interest in exposing her as the political chameleon she is.

In response, "Friends of Hillary" sent out an email this morning on behalf of the Senator, noting:

While we are fighting back in Washington, Republicans are raising tens of millions of dollars to defeat me in 2006. "Whatever it takes," says the New York state Republican chairman. "STOP HER NOW" urges a new "independent" 527 committee.
They're going to find out that I am not easy to stop.

Unlike John Kerry, Hillary Clinton knows that responding immediately and overwhelmingly to groups such as Stop Her Now is crucial.

Stop Her Now's website is still somewhat shoddy, and to maximize its potential, it needs to add a blog, which would allow the site to publish ever-fresh content. Scared Monkeys blog concurs on this point.

As Hillary Clinton maneuvers to appear moderate on broad-based, right-leaning (and winning) issues such as cracking down on illegal immigration and supporting the military, she hopes that, within another couple of years, the American people will view her as a moderate. Simple news searches indicate she's already receiving ample aid on the matter.

Scott Rasmussen, one of the few pollsters who got it right in 2004, offers a regular survey feature, the Hillary Meter, which aims to gauge both support for the former First Lady, as well as public perception of her ideology.

The freshest numbers from the Hillary Meter indicate that 41% of Americans would definitely vote against Mrs. Clinton, while only 26% would definitely vote for her:

At the same time, 45% of Americans hold an unfavorable view of Hillary Clinton, while 38% view her favorably. These numbers will assuredly fluctuate, perhaps even wildly, over the next year or two. One troubling number in Rasmussen's Hillary Meter is that, since early April, roughly 1/3 of Americans have viewed Hillary Clinton as moderate:

Hillary Clinton is anything but moderate, and never really could be, despite her overt and symbolic gestures toward moderation. This, remember, is the woman who nearly sunk the Clinton administration in its infancy with her delusions of socialized health care.

Americans For Democratic Action ratings for Hillary-
2001: 95% (.pdf)
2002: 95%
2003: 95%
2004: 95% (.pdf)

The American Conservative Union gives Hillary mirror-image ratings:

2004 - 0%
2003 - 10%
2002 - 10%
2001 - 12%

Does this seem like a moderate Senator?

On specific issues, Hillary also reveals herself as a far-left politician.

Abortion-

NARAL (National Abortion Reproductive Action League) has given Hillary a rating of 100% each year she has been in the Senate.

In the National Right to Life Committee's ratings, meanwhile, she has not cracked 0%.

Taxes-

National Taxpayers Union:
2004 - 11%
2003 - 21%
2002 - 17%
2001 - 3%

Americans For Tax Reform:
2004 - 10%
2003 - 5%
2002 - 5%
2001 - 5%

Citizens Against Government Waste:
2003 - 16%
2002 - 6%
2001 - 0%

Labor and business-

AFL-CIO:
2004 - 100%
2003 - 85%
2002 - 92%
2001 - 100%

U.S. Chamber of Commerce (scores near 50 do not necessarily mean "moderate"):
2004 - 50%
2003 - 35%
2002 - 45%
2001 - 43%

On issue, after issue, after issue, after issue, Hillary Clinton has proved to be quite left-leaning. So, clearly, she has A LOT of work to do to reshape her image for 2008. But, you can bet that the elite media will assist her every step of the way.

But, why does Hillary have no shot in 2008 or beyond?

She is poison in the red states. Name a state that Bush won that Hillary Clinton could win. Hard to do, isn't it?

She is way too close to Hollywood. America hates that.

Think about it. She is a liberal, (ostensibly) from the Northeast, and she is in the Senate. Is that really a winning comination?

President Bush defeated John Kerry in the Electoral College, 286-251 (with 1 accidental vote for John Edwards). That's 34 electoral votes to make up. After the 2010 Census and subsequent reapportionment (.pdf), it's likely that the states Bush won will gain a net 6 Electoral College votes, while the states Kerry won will lose 6. In 2012, Democrats would have to find a way to win 40 Electoral College votes worth of red states, while defending their precarious hold on Minnesota, Michigan, and Wisconsin, not to mention Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Oregon.

There was much cacaphony about how close Ohio was, but it only had the 5th closest percentage margin of victory, behind Wisconsin, Iowa, New Mexico, and New Hampshire.

Not only are the swing states generally becoming more Republican, but already-Republican states are becoming much deeper Republican. It's just generational and regional demographics at work. And it will be that much more difficult for a Democrat to break through with each subsequent election.

Bottom line, Presidential races are about the Electoral College, and Hillary does not have what it takes to win enough seats in 2008 away from Republican control. Americans will be ready for something new in 2008. The thought of the White House exclusively occupied by someone named Clinton or Bush from 1989 to 2013 (or 2017) is enough to make the average American shudder.

A few predictions:
1. The first female President of the United States will be a Republican with ample foreign policy experience.

2. A woman will not win in 2008.

3. Hillary Clinton's best shot, per the Electoral College, is in 2008. In 2012, the map will be much harder to win. She knows this and will go all in in 2008.

4. If the moderate score of Rasmussen's Hillary Meter gets above 45%, while her liberal score gets below 40%, she will perform roughly as well as John Kerry. If her scores remain where they are today, expect Michael Dukakis-like numbers against any competent Republican.

Posted by Will Franklin · 1 June 2005 03:12 PM

Comments

I really hope you are right about that! I can hardly bare to think of having the Clintons back in the White House... I was so glad when they were finally gone! The Clinton Era was not a good time for our country! Hillary is doing just fine being in the Senate!

Posted by: Zsa Zsa at June 1, 2005 04:03 PM

The first woman President "will be a Republican with ample foreign policy experience", but a woman can and will win in 2008: Condoleezza Rice.

Posted by: Frank DiSalle at June 1, 2005 05:46 PM

I hope so Frank!...

Posted by: Zsa Zsa at June 1, 2005 06:55 PM

Hillary runs and wins in 2008 I am moving to Canada!

Posted by: steve at June 1, 2005 11:15 PM

Republicans will be responsible for the first minority president as well as the first woman president.

Great post!

Posted by: hofzinser at June 2, 2005 08:00 AM

it would be most pleasurable to watch condoleeza beat hillary by a landslide. how can the disingenuous hillary beat a woman that trumps her in character and class?

Posted by: Kristina at June 2, 2005 08:01 AM

The other day I was debating with a colleague at work the likelihood of a Hillary presidency. She was convinced that Hillary was going to be president, and what's more, that she deserved and earned it.

After counting -- slowly -- to ten, I asked her what she had done to deserve it, and how exactly it was that she earned it.

The answer was simple: Hillary deserved to be presient because she stuck by her man through thick and thin, and she earned it becuase not only had she become a US Senator, but she was the First Lady all those years.

Struggling to not pull my hair up by its roots, I asked her how being First Lady qualified her to be anything at all. "Well," she clucked, "You're a man, so I don't exepct you to understand. But being a wife is a tough job. Being the wife of the President: it's the toughest job in the whole world. Not only does she know how it works, but she's earned a shot at running things."

*sigh*

When Hillary does run in '08, it will be a contest of visceral reactions, pro and con. My only hope is that the American people will want someone fresh and new (disqualifying John "Media Whore" McCain, thanks be to God!).

The Republicans will need to find a candidate who will be able to appeal beyond their base, or it will be a long two years fighting the b.s. I heard just the other day.

Posted by: Andrew at June 2, 2005 09:07 AM

Great rundown, Will. Outstanding. This is must reading for...well...everyone - those who support Hillary and those who, like me, wholeheartedly oppose her and see her machinations to alter how she appears to the American people for what they are.

Andrew: I've run into more of those types than I care to say, and the illogic of their position escapes them 100% of the time.

Posted by: Giacomo at June 2, 2005 09:49 AM

Condoleeza is such an treasure! I hope she will run!

Posted by: Zsa Zsa at June 2, 2005 10:09 AM

Hillary will win in 2008 the same way that Bill did in 1992. She will use a third party puppet (John McCain?) the same way that Bill used Ross Perot.

Pressident Hillary - get used to it.

Posted by: Realist at June 2, 2005 04:55 PM

Realist... I hope you are wrong! I just really feel that the Clinton's turned the White House into "White Trash House" when they were there! It has been soooooooooo nice now that they are out!

Posted by: Zsa Zsa at June 2, 2005 05:35 PM

The best insight was from Dick Morris who pointed out that that a good politician never lets you see the politics behind their positions and especially their changes in positions.

Hilliary is so publicly, painfully obvious in her metamorphesis that she can only be a seen as a terrible politician.

Posted by: Whitehall at June 2, 2005 06:48 PM

The operative phrase is "against any competent Republican." Let's not get too psyched just yet.

Posted by: Doctor Disgruntled at June 2, 2005 07:35 PM

Jeb Bush would be able to run against Hillary if Condoleeza isn't ready! I would think Jeb could beat the socks off of Hillary!

Posted by: Zsa Zsa at June 5, 2005 10:33 AM

Red states Hillary could win? Ohio fairly easily, and quite possibly Arkansas and Florida.

"Socialized health care" is a scare word for conservatives but not everybody; if she was proposing something like Kerry proposed in 2004 and Gore proposed in 2000 (virtually identical proposals) it would certainly not alienate everybody.

Posted by: Dean Esmay at June 19, 2005 11:49 PM

The fact that you have worked this hard on a website AGAINST Ms. Clinton says to me that you feel she has a real chance at the top office.

After reading this filth and unsubstantiated information, you have made me a hillary neutral into a hillary supporter.

Posted by: marina marcroft at July 14, 2005 11:03 AM

Yeah, right.

Posted by: Will Franklin at July 14, 2005 11:25 AM