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Mr. Right's Halloween Party.

Go check it out. It's also his first blogiversary.

Dang, and some creepy dude over there really doesn't like me.

Posted by Will Franklin · 31 October 2005 05:43 PM · Comments (0)

Trivia Tidbit Of The Day: Part 202 -- George Bush Cares About Black People.

Recent Improvements In The Lives Of African-Americans-

It's been well-documented that African-Americans are no longer fans of the party of Lincoln. President Bush, frustratingly, was even blamed for the poverty in New Orleans, and for not personally rescuing the folks stranded for a couple/few days, even in the face of unprecedented infrastructure damage and flooding.

Marginally talented hip-hop artist Kanye West infamously took it upon himself to declare (during a Red Cross benefit telethon) that Bush doesn't care about black people. Moreover, many voices from the left announced that the GOP does not get black votes because it does not deserve them.

Well, that's bogus. And ridiculous.

Putting aside the facts on which party in Congress actually supported Civil Rights legislation and which party opposed it, and putting aside President Bush's trust in Condi Rice and other high-profile African-Americans in his administration, it is disingenuous based on the facts in front of us to claim that African-Americans suddenly have it so bad under President Bush.

Let's also put aside these facts:

Since Bush took office... federal anti-poverty spending -- including Medicaid, food and nutrition programs, housing, earned income tax credit and child credits, plus other programs -- increased 42 percent. This is nearly double the rate of increase under President Clinton.

That's all well and good. Bush clearly has not neglected the poor. Perhaps he has not neglected the poor too much for many fiscal conservatives. But what about results?

Crime Victimization-

Crime is the single most pronounced scourge of many African-Americans communities. Crime affects every aspect of life. It drives away jobs. It ruins schools.

You likely already know that America's crime rate is at what is essentially an all-time low (.pdf).

You may be surprised to learn that the African-American victimization rate has also plummeted in recent years:

During the 1990s, victimization fell dramatically for African-Americans, but it has continued to fall since President Bush took office:

There's still a gap between blacks and whites on the issue, but even as crime victimization has been down for everyone, the gap has closed significantly.

Education-

Love or hate No Child Left Behind (NCLB), the results are in, and the racial achievement gap is narrowing:

* In fourth-grade reading, more progress was made from 2000 to 2005 (up 6 points) than from 1992 to 2000 (down 4 points), driven by gains among... African American students (up 10 points).

* In fourth-grade math, nearly as much progress was made from 2000 to 2005 (up 12 points) as from 1990 to 2000 (up 13 points), driven by gains among... African American students (up 17 points).

* Since 2003, African American fourth-graders have made significant gains in both math (up 4 points) and reading (up 2 points).

Earlier this year, African American fourth-graders posted the highest reading and math scores ever.

Education, obviously, is one of the most important components, if not THE most important component, in predicting success in life. And the fact that African-Americans have improved their scores and narrowed those racial achievement gaps so significantly is very encouraging.

Can we do better?

Certainly.

But the positive trend lines under this President are certainly worth noting.

Home Ownership-

As Larry Elder notes, since Bush has taken office, home ownership is way up for blacks:

Half of all minority households are homeowners, an all-time high. In 2002, Bush vowed to increase minority homeownership by 5.5 million families by 2010. Bush pushed for programs on down payment assistance, and called for increased funding for housing counseling services.

While some worry themselves half to death about the impending burst of the housing bubble, others celebrate that so many Americans-- of all races-- now own their own homes. When a family owns a home, they are far more likely to act to increase the value of their home, as well as their community. This means more volunteering, more upkeep on the house itself, and more concern for neighbors. Home owners typically have a much greater stake in their communities than renters, taking more interest in the quality of schools, and contributing more to community initiatives.

Owning a home can transform a family, but it can also transform communities. George W. Bush has made minority home ownership a priority of his administration, and his efforts are paying off nicely.

Jobs-

The unemployment rate gap between whites and blacks is smaller than ever before:

We can certainly do better, for all races, but it absurd to claim that this gap has only recently appeared, or that it has gotten more chasmic under this administration.

It's about time President Bush got a little credit for America's booming economy, not because he has micromanaged success (he hasn't), but because he has lowered taxes and has (generally) trusted free trade and free markets to produce robust growth.

Today, we're all benefiting from tax relief.

Entrepreneurship-

One way to improve communities and enrich individuals is through ownership of small businesses. Entreprenurialism is especially important, because people typically run their businesses in their own neighborhoods, hiring their neighbors, providing services for their neighbors, and otherwise improving the lives of those close to them.

James K. Glassman points out that blacks are making very real strides in business ownership:

An extensive government study, released by the Census Bureau in July and covering 2002 data, found that small businesses owned by women rose 20 percent over five years while the number of all U.S. businesses rose by 10 percent. Black-owned businesses were up by 45 percent, Hispanic-owned by 31 percent.

Sure, whites and males had a significant jump start on the other groups, but the growth for minorities and women ought to be very encouraging for those who desire equality. Blacks saw their rate of small business ownership jump four and a half times faster than the national average.

Indeed, there is a difference between Clinton and Bush on black entrepreneurship:

During the last five years of President Clinton’s term — as far back as the data for this analysis goes — entrepreneurial activity among blacks increased 0.02 percent. Since the beginning of the Bush presidency, it has increased 0.04 percent — twice the Clinton growth rate for the available data.

Noticing a trend, yet? African-Americans are catching up to whites in nearly every category, even as whites are making their own advances.

This is good news-- and evidence that George Bush does indeed care about black people.

Blacks, to be sure, have made enormous strides in recent years, but the Republican Party can and should continue to make the political sales pitch until it becomes overwhelmingly clear that the Democrats not only do not deserve the black vote, but that the GOP actually does deserve another shot.

After all, it is home and business ownership, lower taxes and more jobs, less crime and better schools, not Section 8 government housing, failing schools, and welfare checks, that will allow African-Americans to close those infamous inequality gaps once and for all. It is the free enterprise system championed by Republicans, not the soft socialism of the Democratic Party, that will spur continued economic growth in this country. And it is economic growth that will generate even more entrepreneurial success, more jobs, better schools, less crime, and more home ownership. For all.

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Previous Trivia Tidbit: Presidential Election Turnout Rates.

Posted by Will Franklin · 31 October 2005 03:49 PM · Comments (5)

Houston Halloween.

Today is Halloween, of course, and it's a holiday that takes on special meaning for many folks in this neck of the woods. Not because it is a day off from work (it isn't), not because it has any kind of spiritual meaning (it doesn't), and not because of all the fun and decorations and candy.

No, in Houston, Texas Halloween is a psychological marker for cooler weather. While much of the rest of the country has experienced cool, crisp temperatures for several weeks now, here in Houston, summer usually lingers long into October. You can't really call it Fall until Halloween rolls around. Sure, sometimes climate relief comes a week or two early, as it did this year, but October 31 is a day people who enjoy going outside for more than a few minutes at a time look forward to.

Just look at that wonderfully cool weather, those delightful Fall temperatures. They're definitely still warmer than most of the country, but those temps are a welcome relief from the mid-to-high-90s that lingered until just a couple of weeks ago.

While Houston weather is oppressive from about late May until early October, with heat and humidity and mosquitoes galore, Halloween is the time to celebrate the beginning of several months of mostly beautiful weather. And this pattern goes for more than just Houston, extending into Austin and elsewhere in and around Texas.

But the cooler weather has other benefits. First, Halloween marks an end of $300, $400, $500, or even higher monthly electric bills. The air conditioner does not have to blast all day and all night just to keep the inside temperature under 80 degrees. Moreover, in Houston, most people run the heater for only a dozen or so days all winter long.

Nice.

Next, for football fans (and most Texans are), Halloween marks the official beginning of bearable tailgating weather. Day games are no longer superhuman feats of endurance, requiring frequent electrolyte hydration, even just while sitting there in the stands. Think I am kidding? I just hope that Ohio State's fans visiting Austin, Texas on September 9, 2006 are ready to endure the scorching temperatures. And I hope the Austin paramedics and hospitals are ready to treat scores of these Northerners for heat exhaustion and worse.

I am not exaggerating.

Which is why Halloween is such an awesome day, a true reason for celebration around these parts. It means that this upcoming Saturday, when I attend the Baylor - UT football game in Waco, Texas, the weather will be perfect (as long as it doesn't rain). Long sleeves are even a possibility.

LONG sleeves!

Sometimes people visiting Austin or Houston during the summer look around and observe that Texans are far too casual. Even executives often wear short sleeves to work during the summer-- and certainly no sport coat or jacket. But this isn't some sort of manifestation of hippie human relations nonsense, where employees are supposed to feel more relaxed and comfortable and thus establish a better rapport with co-workers, all because they don't have to wear a tie and a wool suit. It's not a gimmick to get people to work better, or harder. This casual attitude toward dress in the workplace certainly doesn't emanate from the politics in Texas.

No, it's just a necessity.

Which, again, is why it's so great when the weather offers us a bit of relief. Wearing that wool suit is no longer the act of one who has lost his mind. It's just another wardrobe option.

Even more, even just buying groceries becomes a less stressful experience after Halloween. No longer does one have to worry about the milk boiling in the back seat, or the "break and bake" cookie dough becoming full-fledged cookies by the time the car pulls into the garage.

Still think I am exaggerating? I am positive that perishable foods bought at Houston grocery stores last at least a few days longer after Halloween than before.

Perhaps more than anything, Halloween is a great marker for those of us who enjoy spending time outside-- you know-- being active. It's an odd and counter-intuitive thing for much of the rest of the country, but I am pretty sure I gain a few pounds each summer, just because the heat and humidity outside can be so unbearable. Even inside during the summer, I often feel absolutely drained from the heat. Around this time of year, however, spending time outside, running around, riding around, throwing things around, kicking and hitting things around, all become reasonable activities again.

There are an inordinate number of benefits to the cooler weather that may sound trivial, but Houstonians become noticeably less grumpy-- and more relaxed-- about this time of year for a reason. For many reasons, actually.

So, three cheers for Halloween, not for the kids and candy, nor for the evil pagan rituals that apparently happen this day.

No, three cheers, because Halloween has brought us decent weather. These are the months that make living in Houston worthwhile.

Posted by Will Franklin · 31 October 2005 11:38 AM · Comments (6)

Behold The Nominee

Samuel Alito has been nominated by President Bush to be the next Supreme Court Justice. Here is the quick lowdown on Alito:

Born in Trenton, New Jersey, Alito is 52 years old, a graduate from Princeton with a law degree from Yale. He is an appellate court judge for the Third Circuit Court of Appeals, appointed in 1990 by George H.W. Bush.

Alito has a very deep resume:
U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey (1987-1990).
Deputy Assistant Attorney General (1985-1987).
Assistant to the Solicitor General (1981-1985).

Check out the breakdown at The Supreme Court Nomination Blog for case summaries of Alito's notable opinions.

The important opinion here is his dissent in Planned Parenthood v. Casey, 947 F.2d 682 (3d Cir. 1991), this is the opinion most likely to cause fireworks at his confirmation hearing. This case struck down a Pennsylvania statue requiring a married woman seeking an abortion to "sign a statement indicating that she has notified her husband of her intended abortion." Alito thought this provision should have been upheld - Chief Justice Rehnquist agreed in his dissent when the case came before the Supreme Court.

Alito has a long paper trail, and there is little doubt as to where he stands jurisprudentially. He hasn't earned the nickname 'Scalito' for nothing. This is the big confirmation fight everyone has been expecting . . .

See you at the hearings!

Posted by Ken McCracken · 31 October 2005 10:03 AM · Comments (5)

Quotational Therapy: Part 54 -- Good People With Occasional Bad Ideas.

A Great President With A Terrible Idea-

Compound interest. It's a powerful financial force that tens of millions of Americans benefit from each day.

You earn money on top of money you've earned on top of money you've earned. It's not a particularly difficult concept to understand, compound interest.

So, imagine if the government were to begin treating your earnings in the stock market like they treat the rest of your earnings. Imagine if you had taxes automatically withheld from your investment account(s), as you earn it.

Now, consider all of that compound interest you will be missing out on in the meantime. You'd essentially be robbed of earning money on top of money.

Withholding on interest and dividends is just a bad, bad idea. Terrible, even.

So, without further delay, here is today's quotational therapy:

Withholding 10 percent on interest and dividends will allow the Internal Revenue Service to recover (billions) ….. in otherwise lost revenues over the next 5 years — and that’s without taxing honest taxpayers a penny more than they now pay.

Past experience has proven that withholding is by far the most effective means of combating those who don’t pay their tax bill to the government. The only people who stand to lose under this law are those who haven’t been paying their taxes in the first place, and what’s wrong with that?

….. All of this raises an obvious question. If withholding is nothing more than a more effective collection method, what’s all the controversy about? Well, some of the banking interests seem to think withholding will inconvenience them. But we’ve taken measures to make sure this changeover isn’t burdensome. And as for savers, it will actually be a real convenience for many of them. For example, withholding will free many taxpayers from the chore of preparing quarterly tax payments. It will prevent other citizens from being faced with a substantial accumulated tax bill on April 15th. Most wage earners already prefer to have tax withheld from their paychecks, rather than having to come up with the whole bundle on that annual day of reckoning.

Some of the banks and savings and loans have said withholding will reduce the incentive to save. Well, that just doesn’t make sense. Withholding will have a minimal effect on accrued interest.

….. But I think most Americans would forgo (a little interest) if it meant others who are cheating on billions of dollars of unpaid taxes would have to pay their fair share.

Can you guess who uttered those words?

A hint:

He is a conservative hero.

Read more about this terrible idea, who came up with it, and what it means for President Bush and the Harriet Miers Supreme Court kerfuffle, at BizzyBlog.com.

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Previous Quotational Therapy Session:

Hurricanes & Personal Responsibility.

The right quote can be therapeutic, so tune in to WILLisms.com for quotational therapy every Monday and Friday.

Posted by Will Franklin · 31 October 2005 09:45 AM · Comments (4)

Trivia Tidbit Of The Day: Part 201 -- Increases In Presidential Voter Turnout.

Increases In Turnout-

The 2004 election was the fifth-largest increase in voter turnout since 1896 (.pdf):

1920
Up 44.4%
Change of party from D to R.
Flood of new voters as franchise is extended to women for first time.

1928
Up 26.5%
Status quo affirmed.
Strong religious overtones as Democrat Al Smith becomes first Roman Catholic to win major party nomination.

1952
Up 26.1%
Change of party from D to R.
Ike’s victory ends 20 years of Democratic White House control.

1916
Up 23.2%
Status quo affirmed.
Wilson narrowly reelected as nation debates entry into World War I.

2004
Up 16.0%
Status quo affirmed.
Bush leadership in age of terrorists spurs high-stakes battle.

1896
Up 15.2%
Change from D to R.
First McKinley-Bryan contest puts stamp on a new Republican era.

1936
Up 14.8%
Status quo affirmed.
FDR landslide affirms New Deal and new Democratic majority.

1992
Up 14.0%
Change from R to D.
Perot’s independent candidacy produces lively three-way race.

1960
Up 11.0%
Change from R to D.
Kennedy-Nixon contest features first televised debates.

1908
Up 10.1%
Status quo affirmed.
Taft ratified as Teddy Roosevelt’s choice as successor.

It is interesting that spikes in voter turnout do not necessarily mean the American people are ready to "throw the bums out." It is also interesting that spikes in voter turnout do not correlate strongly with close elections or landslides.

Finally, this chart verifies the seemingly empty rhetoric from 2004 about "this election being the most important in a generation." And if it was the most important election in quite some time, the results ought to matter more than we've seen over the past year.

Elections should matter. Elections with spikes in turnout should matter even more.

In red states in 2004, turnout was up 18.9%, and Bush gained a net of 2,845,510 votes (6,899,716 R to 4,054,206 D), relative to 2000.

In blue states in 2004, turnout was up 13.2%, and Bush still gained a net of 703,840 votes (4,685,738 R to 3,981,898 D), relative to 2000.

In other words, Bush didn't merely draw his increased support in 2004 from white evangelicals in already deep red states. He gained in liberal states, as well. Unfortunately, the mandate President Bush earned in 2004 has not been respected or even really acknowledged by many in the establishment media. Even more unfortunate is that some within the President's own administration, and even more within his own party in Congress, have not projected the kind of confidence that ought to come from an impressive mandate.

Source:
Pew Research Center (.pdf).

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Previous Trivia Tidbit: America's Booming GDP.

Posted by Will Franklin · 30 October 2005 02:12 PM · Comments (0)

Pundit Roundtable

Welcome back again to Pundit Roundtable! Once again this is your host, Ken McCracken.

This week we have asked our pundits the following questions on two topics:

Topic 1: Miers Withdrawing Her Supreme Court nomination.

Are the conservatives going to forgive Bush for picking Harriet Miers instead of the next incarnation of Antonin Scalia? Does it matter now that Miers has withdrawn her nomination? Who should the president nominate now, and why?

Topic 2: Lewis 'Scooter' Libby indictment.

On a scale of 1 to 10 on the political richter scale, 1 being a slight tremor, and 10 being a seismic shifting of the continents, how serious a problem for the Bush administration is the Libby indictment and/or the Plame Affair as a whole?

Our first guest is Jim Hoft of Gateway Pundit. Jim, what do you think?

Topic 1:

Forgiven … Only a jerk wouldn’t forgive GW. There is too much at stake right now to hold grudges. Everyone must focus attention and energy on the fight ahead. Now that “W” sees the conservative base is willing to fight (although the Senators are a bit wobbly) he is going to come up with a strong conservative candidate. I trust him.

The next candidate should definitely be Janice Rogers Brown. Then we could all watch the Democratic Party self-implode. It would be hard for the liberals to pelt her with slave names without finally more blacks in the country seeing who the real racist party is in the US. There would be rioting in Blue States and at CNN that would dwarf the Paris immigrant riots from this weekend. I’d love to see the Left frog march Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson back to an honest day of work instead of attending racist communist rallies like the Million More Movement Rally in DC. It would be good for the country not to have to worry about Jesse showing up after a natural disaster trying to start a race riot.

And, for this same reason Condoleezza Rice needs to run for president. It would be the absolute end of the Democratic Party and there would be no media spin great enough to hide their racism from the masses.

Topic 2:

As for the Libby indictment… the Left is trying its darnedest to make the country believe that he is a Cabinet Member and that it is really Libby not Rove who is the brains behind George Bush. I hope it is over soon. I hope that Libby has a good defense. I would be surprised if there were more indictments.

I actually see a link between the two topics. If President Bush picks a staunch conservative, the Left will make fools of themselves ripping into the candidate, especially if Conservatives focus on the issues. The slime the Left will throw at the nominee they will end up wearing.

Home State: Missouri.

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Our next guest is Neo-neocon. How do you see this?

Topic 2:

As with most of these things, beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

I can only answer how serious it's been so far; if they dig up more dirt on Rove, for example, the situation would change. But, as it stands now, to Bush supporters it's somewhere in the 1-2 category. After what was expected and/or feared, the indictment of Libby for perjury in the absence of any other charges is a palpable relief, amounting to an almost Emily Litella-like "never mind" on the part of the prosecutor.

Ah, but to Bush-haters and/or those who would like the entire Republican Party paid back for the impeachment of Clinton and its other high crimes and misdemeanors, it's about a 6-7 at the moment. But the fervent hope--and expectation--is that the aftershocks will reach 10 levels.

The MSM's role so far has been mixed, depending on the affiliation of the speaker or writer (surprise, surprise!) But there's been a general trend to endeavor to spin the situation towards the higher numbers. This drive is motivated in part by self-interest, the goal being to have a meaty crisis that the MSM can sink its formidable teeth into and thus drive ratings up. If that can't be accomplished so far with facts, then rumor and innuendo will do. "Cheney may have to testify!!" and that sort of thing, said in a certain voice suggesting that the mere act of testifying would somehow implicate him.

In the buildup to the announcement of the indictment/indictments, the function of the MSM seemed to be limited to guesses about who would be implicated. It turns out that, in general, their guesses were as good as anyone's, but no better. So I'm not going to make any predictions about the future of the case, because my guesses would probably be no better than theirs.

Home State: New York.

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Next is a return guest from last week, Hoodlumman from File It Under. What do you say?

Topic 1:

Absolutely conservatives will forgive Bush. Unlike the rabid left, we obviously don't oppose and obstruct for the sake of opposing and obstructing. It shows that lots of conservatives don't march lock-step with the president and all his views, choices and decisions. But what we'll see next, I believe, is Bush selecting someone that will unite most, if not all, conservative bases - a la Roberts - and we'll be back to a selection we on the right will support fully and the left will be frothing and hissing over, just like the politics we've all come to love and cherish. Sort of.

Topic 2:

As someone who really couldn't gather much interest in the whole Plame-gate affair, I give it a reading of a 1. Of course, if you're a Democrat, this stuff is an 11 - or at least you'd like it to be. But it's not. It's a two-year investigation that yielded a few indictments for one person in the administration - some guy in the VP's office that no one would know of if not for this.

When the left didn't get their Rove, it took any huge headlines and fallout off the table. I'd still argue that outside of politically active people, any of this regardless of who/when/where isn't cared about by the general public.

Home State: Texas.

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Next is Dan Morgan from NoSpeedBumps.com. Dan?

Topic 1:

With Harriet Miers withdrawing her nomination, President Bush has a chance to start again. At this point, this is the best outcome for Bush. He now has a clean slate. If he picks a qualified nominee, and someone with a demonstrated philosophy of judicial restraint, all will quickly be forgiven by nearly all of the conservatives that disapproved of his last pick.

In one sense this is a kind of test for the conservative movement. Rarely have disagreements within the ranks been to visible. I predict the rift will disappear quickly, thus showing a core strength of conservatives: They believe in a big tent and a broad range of views are allowed. The litmus test mentality is much more at home on the Left and among the Democrats."

Topic 2:

This is a 1 on the Richter scale, and a big fizzle for eager Democrats. With Rove and others apparently now not in line for indictment, and Libby indicted for things other than revealing a CIA agent's identity, this is not going to get the seismic shifting of the continents hoped for by Democrats. In fact, with Libby now gone from the White House, this will all quickly be forgotten. Libby's trial will be for an ex-government worker.

With this out of the way, the hope now is that President Bush gives a renewed effort at Social Security reform, including adding the Personal Retirement Accounts component. Vastly improved security along the southern border should also be a high priority issue, but so far Republicans in Congress and the Bush administration still look like deer frozen by on-coming headlights. So Social Security reform may be the most conservatives can hope for.

Home State: Pennsylvania.

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Now we turn to Will Franklin for his views. Will?

Topic 1:

Conservatives are reasonable people, and many conservatives of all stripes (social and fiscal) were willing to give Bush the benefit of the doubt on Miers. Still, you could feel a sigh of relief coming from most everyone on the right that Miers had withdrawn. The small-but-vocal cadre of angry conservatives who were pontificating about how they have given up on Bush and this and that will forgive the President-- AND THEN SOME-- if he nominates a brilliant young jurist with clear evidence of a conservative judicial philosophy.

I would love to see any of Janice Rogers Brown, Priscilla Owen, Miguel Estrada, Karen Williams, Emilio Garza, Maureen Mahoney, Diane Sykes. or Edith Jones, if the choice must be a minority or woman. Alito, Luttig, McConnell, and so on would be great picks, as well. Basically, two rules: No stealth nominees. Nobody who could even remotely be construed as a "crony."

If President Bush nominates any of these candidates, it will provoke a debate on judicial philosophy, a debate which conservatives are ready, willing, and eager to have. It will also be a debate that conservatives will win, despite the media's favoritism the other direction.

Topic 2:

This could have been an 8 if the left's wildest dreams had come true and indictments had come down on several folks, including Karl Rove, for actual crimes that could jeopardize national security. Right now, it's about a 3 or 4, only because Karl Rove is technically still under investigation. Without that confusing cloud still hanging over the administration, it could have been a 2, because, after all, the crimes Libby allegedly committed only materialized in the course of the grand jury investigation itself.

Home State: Texas.

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And now we get the host's last word.

Topic 1: if Bush nominates an obvious conservative this time around, not only will the conservatives forgive him, they will hoist him on their shoulders. The fight against Miers was a very principled one I think. The critics of Bush complained that he was not delivering on what is perhaps the top issue in the nation today next to the War on Terror, that is, reforming the judiciary and removing activist judges on the Supreme Court. If Bush can finally make good on this, I think his poll numbers will jump. Not that poll numbers rule all, but it would show how reinvigorated the base will become.

My favorite pick would be Janice Rogers Brown. No one doubts her qualifications - even the ABA has rated her 'well-qualified'. She is eloquent, and there is no mystery about where she stands. She has a compelling life story - she really had to struggle to get where she is, and so the complaints about John Roberts that he was some pampered and isolated son of privilege would be quite inapt here. The fact that she is black and a woman is important too. The great thing about that is, no one could really claim that she was chosen solely for that reason - her resume and philosophy would make her a standout if she was a white male. So why not go with a black female? It will drive the libs bonkers. Maybe this next nomination should be about driving the libs bonkers, among other things.

I'd be perfectly happy with any of the nominees Will mentioned also.

As for the Plame affair, I give it a two on the political richter scale. I understand why everyone else seems to be giving it a 1 - heh, I have been a Plame affair junkie though so I am biased in its favor. Plus, the administration still needs to deal with the fallout from this, even though the whole thing has been ginned up by the press. There is also the remote possibility that more will come from the investigation. Let's hope not.

Home State: Illinois.

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That's all for this week. Thank you pundits for participating, and see you next Sunday!

Posted by Ken McCracken · 30 October 2005 10:41 AM · Comments (2)

Drudge Irony Alert

Matt Drudge is known for writing catchy headlines at the Drudge Report. I think he is also known for ironic placement of such headlines:

Now, what do you think the chances are that the perpetrators of the terrorist attacks in New Delhi were practitioners of that religion of peace and love, Islam? Who knows, maybe we will find out that these murderous crimes were committed by Buddhists. Or Unitarians.

Doesn't even matter. The prince still needs to buy a clue.

Update: well surprise surprise. The attacks were committed by Islamic militants seeking independence for Kashmir. I know it was not a very difficult guess, but still.

Okay JS Narins, I am waiting for my apology.

Posted by Ken McCracken · 30 October 2005 02:14 AM · Comments (5)

The Best Of The Trivia Tidbits Of The Day.

The Trivia Tidbits Of The Day: they're not always exactly trivia, nor are they tidbits, but they are world famous, and they do appear every day.

Now that WILLisms.com has posted its 200th Trivia Tidbit Of The Day, here's a look at a few of the best from the past 100.

Click on the images to go to the original posts.

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#115: Ubiquitous Polling

Polling. It's great, right?

Well, maybe.

A brief rant:

Polling has gotten out of hand. There are literally dozens of public polls on a variety of subjects in any given week-- many of which directly contradict one another, many of which ask leading, irrelevant, or inaccurate questions designed to promote the media's left-wing narrative, all of which are used by ideological and political partisans to undermine or bolster their respective agendas.

Polls are crystal meth for the media. For Chris Matthews and Tim Russert and others, polls are indisputable truth, and every poll that fits or promotes a left-of-center partisan agenda is good, no matter how poorly constructed and conducted. I've also seen lots of other well-done polls marginalized or ignored by the establishment media. Polls are worse than worthless when conducted shoddily. In odd years, for instance, nearly all pollsters include anyone and everyone rather than registered or likely voters.

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#127: Free Trade

Free trade. Let's jump right to my prior comments:

Clearly, partisanship and the "Washington scoreboard" played a role in these decisions. Presumably, when President Clinton was in office, more anti-trade Democrats voted against their ideological leanings in order to give the President a political win....

There are arguments on both side of the free trade issue, and concerns about "outsourcing" are well-taken, but protectionism is terrible for any economy in the long run.

As CAFTA passed by a hair, many in the media spoke of an eroding consensus on trade. Not. All the squeaker of a vote really indicated was that elected Democrats have moved to the left. The Democrats have run away from trade. And there's ample evidence the Democrats have moved to the left on dozens of other issues in order to appease the MoveOn/Kos crowd, which has become the base.

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#128: America's Ridiculously Big Economy

Perspective. Sometimes it is difficult to understand the relative size of things. This post was all about explaining just how large the large economies of the world are-- and how dramatic the dropoff is for those medium-sized economies. Some observations:

This explains how the United States can spend such a relatively small amount of our GDP on our military and still have, far and away, the largest military force in the world. It also explains how the U.S. can offer, far and away, more than any other country, in economic aid to poorer countries, yet still get criticized for not doing enough.

What's even more amazing is that the American economy is not only larger than many of those other economies, but it also grows faster than most of the industrialized countries.

It will be interesting to see these numbers in a couple of decades, after year after year of explosive Chinese growth and European stagnation.

It is also important for Americans to understand how important it is to capitalize on our status as the world's lone superpower to shape the world for the better while we can. Carpe diem. All that good stuff.

--------------------

#134: Productivity Growth

This post examines the economic concept of productivity. This is thoroughly underreported. Here's the summary:

It's good, all around, to see rapid productivity growth, but it's not necessarily the best news for the incumbent's short-term political fortunes, as employers have little reason to hire additional employees in times of high productivity growth....

When productivity growth goes hand-in-hand with job growth (even manufacturing job growth), you know the economy is in good shape, for now and for the foreseeable future.

Notice how strong productivity growth has been over the past few years.

Now, think about reporting on the economy. How many times have you heard about booming productivity?

Few, or none, I bet.

Coincidence? Or just another page in the "Bush can't win in the media" story? I will let you be the judge of that one.

--------------------

#148: Net Migration Rate

This post came to me after reading an article about how French youth were emigrating from their homeland because of the lack of available jobs. Here's the recap:

Notice how low France is, even with significant and well-known inflows of immigrants from North Africa and former French colonies. Sort of validates this article:

FRANCE is facing an unprecedented new-generation exodus as many of its disillusioned younger people leave in search of a better life abroad.

French organisations offering help to those seeking to emigrate have reported an increase in requests for assistance from young people.

Fed up with a country they describe as rigid, racist and old-fashioned, French youngsters are opting for a new start in Britain, Canada, America or New Zealand where they can find housing and jobs more easily than in France.

Unemployment among the under-25s in France stands at 23.3 per cent, and 40 per cent of 18-30 year-olds describe their financial state as "difficult".

So sad.

And that sadness was not sarcastic. France is a great country. I hate to see the French people shooting themselves in the proverbial foot.

--------------------

#150: Shrinking Unemployment Rate Race Gap

This late August post came just before Hurricane Katrina, and the information apparently was unknown to the folks pushing the "look at how much worse things are getting for African-Americans in this country" narrative. At the time, all I wrote to accompany the graph was this:

An interesting and underappreciated trend, to be sure.

Little did I know that just a couple of weeks later, the entire media establishment, from Oprah Winfrey to Shep Smith, would be whining about Bush's negligence and incompetence on African-American issues, and how that therefore made Bush responsible for Katrina.

Although Katrina did expose wealth inequalities in the United States, it was shame that there was no context to the story. Everyone sort of just pounced on the "Bush has been bad for black people" bandwagon, without noting that African-Americans have seen significant improvements while Bush has been in office. The racial gap in the unemployment rate, for example, has closed, even as the overall unemployment rate has fallen dramatically over the past couple of years.

This is good news, but we can obviously do better. The next question becomes whether we ought to go down the road Democrats have championed, the European social model, with even higher levels of unemployment than we've sniffed in the past quarter century in America, or whether we should pursue pro-growth policies that unleash the power of the free enterprise system.

--------------------

#157: Hurricanes

So often in this active hurricane season, we've heard about how global warming is to blame for Katrina, Rita, Wilma, and so on. The establishment media love sensationalism. But few reported these facts about hurricanes striking the U.S.:

The average number of hurricanes per decade is 17.7, with 6 "major hurricanes" (category 3, 4, or 5, on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale) over the same frame.

We may very well exceed the decade average from 2001 to 2010 at the rate we're going. But we're unlikely to hit the 1940s mark in serious hurricanes-- nor in overall hurricanes.

It is also pertinent to note that the general trend actually seems to be that of slight decline over the years. Imagine that.

Amazingly, from 1851 to 2004, the U.S. averaged only 1.2 category 4 hurricane strikes per decade, and only three category 5 hurricanes have hit the U.S.

181 (two-thirds of) hurricanes have been category 1 or 2.
92 (one-third of) hurricanes have been category 3, 4, or 5.

Free your mind. Put recent record hurricane seasons in historical context.

--------------------

#175: What Is Europe's Deal?

An examination the weird anti-Americanism and Marxism that are taken so seriously in European politics. It is important to look at what other countries are doing economically, so we can emulate the good and avoid the bad. Germany, for example, has it wrong. And over time, this could have stark consequences:

The American economy is roughly 12 trillion dollars large.

Now, let's take that 12 trillion dollars, with a 1% annual rate of return, compounded daily, for forty years: $17,901,798,281,182.28 - Nearly 18 trillion dollars.

Now, let's take that 12 trillion dollars, with a 3% annual rate of return, compounded daily, for forty years: $39,839,438,447,474.09 - Nearly 40 trillion dollars....

Incidentally, the U.S. GDP growth rate was 3.1% in 2003 and 4.4% in 2004.

The German GDP growth rate, meanwhile, was -0.1% in 2003 and 1.6% in 2004.

In a generation or two, if we make the right choices and Europe continues making the wrong choices, we could be two drastically different societies. In a few decades, Germany could very well seem like a third world country, relative to the United States.

--------------------

#179: Religion

This post generated quite a bit of hate email and furor. I don't write controversial things for the sake of controversy, but it's sometimes a bit fun when people have a strong response to something you've written. I never would have thought this particular post would have made people so angry:

Now, it does not make someone a better person for donating time and money to charity, nor is someone a bad person if they do not donate time and money to charity.

But if I were down on my luck, I would clearly prefer the help of a faith-based organization to that of a bureacratic government program. And let's not forget that religious folks are happier than secular people.

Religion, it would seem, is a force for good. The "Armies of Compassion" should be unleashed, not maligned or marginalized.

And this is important. Whether you are religious or secular, you have to admit that religion is a net positive force in America. And if you're a small government secular libertarian type, you should applaud the good works churches do in communities. They mitigate the need for large government programs to address social problems.

--------------------

#189: Hurricane "Medicare"

An important look at the Medicare storm that lurks just off the coast:

Notice how Medicare spending growth sort of stalled out at the same time that the federal government ran budget surpluses. In 1999, there was even a rare contraction in spending on Medicare.

It wasn't an accident. It was the same deal with other entitlement programs.

Demographics.

Temporarily, in the late 1990s, there was a lull in the growth of new retirees. But it was the calm before the storm. Right now, we've got the bands of the Baby Boom storm just barely beginning to batter us.

This ought to be a wakeup call for everyone. I am not quite sure how those who have this information, but still reject doing anything about it, think we're going to be able to afford the impending spending explosion. Can we grow our way out of deficits? Sure, when our economy is growing the way it is today, and when "pork" is the extent of the spending problems. No problem.

But will this lurking fiscal storm have a neutral impact on our economy? Not likely.

We won't be able to grow our way out of this one, folks.

--------------------

The Entire List, 101-200:

101: Economic Growth Means Smaller Deficits.
102: School Choice Hypocrisy.
103: Attractive People Earn More Money.
104: American Stock Ownership Way Up.
105: Eminent Domain Failure.
106: Supreme Court Nomination Trivia.
107: Syrian Instability.
108: Elephant Calls.
109: Growing Global Energy Demand.
110: Carbon Emissions In Developing World.
111: Presidential Vetoes.
112: Global Energy Production.
113: John Roberts.
114: America's Historical Unemployment Rate.
115: Too Many Opinion Polls.
116: Largest Tax Revenue Increase Ever.
117: American GDP Growth Carries On.
118: Interest Rates Historically Low.
119: U.S. Home Boom.
120: Economic Literacy.
121: Globalization.
122: Global GDP Growth.
123: Union Influence.
124: Off-Court Trouble In The NBA.
125: The Amazing American Economy.
126: Recess Appointments, Historically.
127: Partisanship & Free Trade.
128: Perspective On America's Huge Economy.
129: Political Gender Gap.
130: More & More Jobs.
131: U.S. Personal Savings Rate.
132: Tourism To U.S. Back Up.
133: Inflation Remains Low.
134: Productivity Growth.
135: Shrinking Budget Deficits.
136: Religion In The Senate.
137: Religion In The House Of Representatives.
138: Research & Development.
139: Jobs.
140: Deficits/Surpluses As A Share Of GDP.
141: Monetary & Financial Conditions.
142: Crime Rate Down.
143: Air Travel Operations Up Again.
144: Suicide Rates.
145: Business Fixed Investment.
146: Corporate Profits.
147: U.S. Senate Historical Productivity.
148: Global Immigration Rates.
149: Regional Housing Bubbles.
150: Racial Gap In Unemployment.
151: Peacetime Military Deaths.
152: Supreme Court Nomination Stats.
153: Government Spending & Unemployment.
154: Consumer Confidence Index.
155: Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
156: U.S. Job Creation.
157: Hurricane Strikes Per Decade.
158: Medicaid Spending Way Up.
159: Democrats & Religion.
160: Supreme Court Nominations.
161: Test Scores Up In America.
162: Partisanship & Israel.
163: Pre-Katrina New Orleans.
164: Katrina Rescue Efforts.
165: Gender Achievement Gap.
166: Corps Of Engineers Funding.
167: Mary Landrieu's 2008 Hopes.
168: Economic Freedom's Power.
169: Immigration To America.
170: U.S. Poverty Rate.
171: Katrina Evacuees.
172: Benefits Of Economic Freedom.
173: The Flat Tax Works.
174: Economic Freedom & Political Rights.
175: European Social Model Failure.
176: Gasoline Taxes.
177: Houston's Hurricane Evacuation.
178: U.S. Energy Refining.
179: Religion.
180: Best Places To Do Business.
181: The Rich & Taxes.
182: Middle Class.
183: The Peace Dividend.
184: Tort Reform.
185: Top Collegiate Logos.
186: Government Revenues & Spending.
187: Drowning In Entitlement Spending.
188: U.S. Housing Bubble.
189: Medicare Spending.
190: China's Housing Boom.
191: Life-Cycle Effects Of Earning.
192: Declining Newspaper Circulation.
193: Laundered Political Money In Texas.
194: Free Economies.
195: Gas Prices.
196: Guns & Gun Crime.
197: Excess Profits Tax.
198: Oil Industry Profits.
199: Latino Vote.
200: America's Roaring Economy.

Hopefully you'll be able to find something worthwhile and interesting.

Also see the retrospectives on the first 50, as well as the second 50. And stay tuned for more trivia tidbits. Collect them all!

Posted by Will Franklin · 29 October 2005 11:45 AM · Comments (2)

Trivia Tidbit Of The Day: Part 200 -- America's Roaring Economy.

THIRD QUARTER 2005: 3.8% GDP GROWTH-

America's economy is booming.

No, really. You hadn't heard?

Our economy, by far the largest in the world, is also growing faster than just about every industrialized country on the planet.

In the third quarter of 2005, America's economy grew at an annual rate of 3.8%.

This marks 16 straight quarters of growth. 16 quarters, of course, is the same as four straight years of economic growth. 3.8% may not sound spectacular, but it is very strong. For example, in 2004, Japan grew at a 2.9% rate, Canada grew at a 2.4% rate, Germany grew at a 1.7% rate, France grew at a 2.1% rate, and the United Kingdom grew at a 3.2% rate.

So why do polls and surveys continue to show such poor attitudes from Americans on the American economy?

One might be tempted to say that it's because the statistics on GDP growth are meaningless or inaccurate, or that those gains are not trickling down to average Americans. This would be a mistake. Oddly enough, throughout this economic boom, Americans have expressed confidence in their own personal economic situations, just not the American economy overall.

Not only that, but people have continued to "vote with their feet" on the economy, regardless of what they have told pollsters. People are still buying homes and cars and computers and other consumer goods in strong numbers, not exactly the kind of behavior we would expect from people who are worried about losing their jobs or the economy going sour.

What could all of this mean? How are consumer confidence numbers so low, while measurable consumer spending itself is so robust? How is it that Americans are so concerned about outsourcing and jobs, when millions of jobs have been added in the past couple of years? How is it that Americans express doubts about the overall U.S. economy, with so many consecutive quarters of positive GDP growth?

Maybe that the media have done a typically poor job reporting on the economy. Maybe that the consumer confidence surveys are less meaningful than they once were in terms of predicting recessions.

Whatever it is, the overwhelming accumulation of good news has to sink in someday, right? Preferably before November of 2006.

UPDATE:

BizzyBlog.com has more astounding trivia tidbits you probably didn't know about the American economy, past and present. Go check 'em out.

-------------------------------------

Previous Trivia Tidbit: The Still Emerging Latino Vote.

Posted by Will Franklin · 29 October 2005 10:12 AM · Comments (2)

Wow, What A Week.

For a week that was supposed to destroy the Bush administration, I feel strangely upbeat.

Miers withdrawing her nomination was a great cathartic release - just the right type of relief for the White House on the eve of the breaking of yet another overcooked scandal in the Plame Affair.

Which utterly fizzled.

We waited two years for this? The entire Plame Affair has been about how rotten it is to out a covert CIA operative - only to find that none of the indictments even deal with this?

The markets laughed it all off - the politically sensitive dollar made good gains against the euro yesterday .

With the White Sox winning the series this week and all, I am going to have a great weekend!

Posted by Ken McCracken · 29 October 2005 06:51 AM · Comments (2)

Quotational Therapy: Part 53 -- A Personal Responsibility Revolution.

Spoiled By Dependency-

This hurricane season has been pretty intense for a lot of Americans (and Moose). I even got caught up in the craziness, myself. If there's anything people should have learned from this summer, it's that you have to be prepared. You have to be ready to take care of yourself, because depending on the government for your health, safety, and comfort-- in the middle of an unprecedented crisis-- is just a bad idea.

But it seems like a lot of folks still haven't gotten "it."

Spotted in a story on the Fox News website earlier this week (underlining mine):

Items Americans usually take for granted — a bag of ice, a fast-food burger, a gallon of gas — have taken hours of patience to get since Hurricane Wilma made its destructive sweep.

Nine hours after she got in line Tuesday at one designated relief-supply location, Fanie Aristil, 23, of North Miami wearily left for home with 28 pounds of ice and six liters of bottled water.

"All that time," Aristil said. "This is all we get?"

Is this the new standard in America? Have we become such a deeply entrenched dependency society that we expect the government to swoop in on every single emergency situation, deus ex machina style, and make sure that all of our wildest dreams come true?

Hurricane Wilma gave Florida ample of heads up before it hit. The government urged people to get out of the way and/or stock up on supplies.

While I have compassion for people who have lost everything in these monster storms, people should not complain about receiving only 28 pounds of ice and several liters of water in the first couple of days after the storm strikes.

From here on out, people living along the Gulf Coast have no excuse for not preparing ahead of time for at least a few days worth of food, water, and other supplies.

Jeb Bush understands this, and spoke bluntly about it:

People had ample time to prepare. It isn't that hard to get 72 hours worth of food and water.

Jeb Bush: telling it like it is.

More from Gary Becker on government dependency and emergencies.

-----------------------------

Previous Quotational Therapy Session:

Ben Bernanke, On Fiscal Policy.

The right quote can be therapeutic, so tune in to WILLisms.com for quotational therapy every Monday and Friday.

Posted by Will Franklin · 28 October 2005 07:07 PM · Comments (1)

FITZGERALD CASE: Americans Need To Search Deep Into Their Souls And Ask Themselves...

Just who is this Libby Plame chick, anyway, and exactly what did she have against Veronica Wilson?

.....................

The entire indictment can be read here (.pdf).

Posted by Will Franklin · 28 October 2005 01:11 PM · Comments (1)

Trivia Tidbit Of The Day: Part 199 -- Latino Vote Yet To Fully Materialize.

Latino Population Rapidly Growing, But Voters Yet To Enter Political Process-

The Latino vote is a highly coveted voting bloc, actually comprised of several regional and ethno-national voting blocs. There are Mexican-Americans, Cubans, Puerto Ricans, and Central and South Americans, to name a few of the distinct groups.

Republicans believe their platform of family/religious values and low taxes appeals to Latinos. Democrats secure their portion of the Latino vote primarily through good old fashioned machine politics. Just one example of this is Los Angeles, where the Latino community has been almost uniformly unionized-- and votes for the Democrats similarly uniformly.

Interesting, though, has been just how untapped the Latino vote truly is. Right now, it's still mostly potential driving the "get the Hispanic vote on our side" quest of each party.

Just look at how many Latinos we have added to our population over the years, but how relatively few Latino voters we've added, accordingly:

Part of this phenomenon is that many Latinos are not citizens, but the reason Latinos are so highly sought after stems from the fact that large proportion of Latinos are under the age of 18. Get those folks on your side, and when they do begin voting, the results will be quite significant.

So, what's the best way to woo the Latino vote?

Well, there's the obvious answers. There's pandering. There's milestone appointments, such as to the Supreme Court. There's personality politics, getting Latino celebrities and role models out there supporting Republicans, running for office as Republicans, and so on.

There's also the policy answers. Frame the GOP as the party of the American Dream. Hard work. Entrepreneurial spirit. Upward mobility. Creation of wealth. Owning your own home. Material success. All with well-grounded moral values.

In 2006, the immigration issue is likely to take center stage in policy debates. Some Republicans will walk on eggshells to avoid controversy on the issue in either direction, while other firebrands will take the "we're mad as hell and we're not going to take it anymore" route. Still others will take the side they believe to be the way of the future, that is, "pro" immigration at any cost, so as to avoid the backlash from the Latino community.

Meanwhile, those on the left will throw around disingenuous, dishonest characterizations of Republicans. Racist. Anti-immigrant. And so on.

All of this is unfortunate, because most Americans want something pragmatic accomplished on immigration. A pragmatic accomplishment on any issue with so many wrinkles and constituencies requires a serious and honest debate, which I am beginning to believe cannot happen in today's political/media climate.

It's unfortunate but true.

That isn't to say we won't see some sort of comprehensive immigration reform plan in 2006. It's just that we'll see more than a bit of demagoguery on the issue, all geared toward gleaning support from that all-important emerging Latino vote.

Source:
Pew Research Center (.pdf).

-------------------------------------

Previous Trivia Tidbit: Oil Company Profiteering.

Posted by Will Franklin · 28 October 2005 10:50 AM · Comments (0)

Social Security Reform Thursday: Week Thirty-Eight -- Disability Benefits.

Thursdays are good days for reform, because they fall between Wednesdays and Fridays. And reform is a long-haul process, not a fleeting event. So we're going to keep plugging along with the case for reform, even as the issue goes off the political radar screen.

That's why WILLisms.com offers a chart or graph, every Thursday, pertinent to Social Security reform.

This week's topic:

Reform = Better Disability Benefits.

Social Security reform is dead. Dead as a doornail. Fin. The feigned/manufactured hurricane controversy drove the final nail into the Social Security reform coffin.

So says the common wisdom.

Well, instant gratification would have been nice, but I've expected all along that this would be a marathon process.

First, you have to convince people there's a problem. Check.

Next, find a solution that can get enough votes in Congress. BZZZT. Does not compute.

Actually, though, just before Katrina hit, there was considerable-but-fragile political inertia behind a watered down Social Security reform plan. It would have stopped the raid on the Social Security surplus and devoted that money to the creation of private investment "lock box" accounts.

The fragile political will behind reform was washed away by the flood waters of Katrina.

But President Bush has not given up on Social Security reform. He's a true believer on the issue. In fact, I recall Bush speaking eloquently and authoritatively on the issue to a group of youngsters (me included) in 1995 or 1996, when he was Governor of Texas, far before any inkling of a serious White House run.

Bush believes Social Security reform is part of the solution to the poverty America became so upset about following Katrina:

"One way to spread ownership throughout our society, into neighborhoods where some may not own anything, is to allow (young people) to save some of their own (money) — their choice — in a personal savings account as part of Social Security reform," Bush said.

Ironically, paying for the hurricanes has made Americans refocus on government spending, and you cannot make significant spending cuts without addressing the big entitlement programs such as Social Security.

So I wouldn't count reform out entirely just yet. Yes, a great opportunity has come and gone, but if conservatives can regroup as a team, prospects for reform remain solid.

Herman Cain adds:

The direct threats to our national economic security come from moderate House and Senate Republicans who are too afraid to lead, and just as afraid to follow the leadership of conservatives who propose responsible solutions. The direct threats also come from nearly every Congressional Democrat. The majority of Congressional Democrats are too willing to stand on the sidelines of political debate and then obstruct the president on his every proposal.

That being said, one of the arguments anti-reform folks made regularly was that Social Security privatization would leave workers and their families in a precarious situation in the event of a sudden disability.

This argument was disingenuous, as Bush's proposals left the disability part of Social Security untouched.

But let's assume, for the sake of debate, that the disability portion of Social Security were to be "privatized." How would that affect benefit levels?

The National Center for Policy Analysis has the answer, based on actual results from three Texas counties (Galveston, Brazoria, and Matagorda), which opted out of Social Security in the early 1980s:

* A 60-year-old low-income worker is likely to receive more than twice as much in monthly disability income from the private plan as from Social Security ($2,106 vs. $1,013), while a high- income worker is likely to receive 3.4 times as much ($6,304 vs. $1,869).

* A single, 40-year-old middle-income worker receives $1,169 monthly under Social Security, and $1,753 if there is a dependent spouse, but that worker gets $2,201 a month under the private plan, regardless of marital status.

* A low-income, 21-year-old disabled worker under the private plan gets $829 a month, compared to $2,479 for a high-income worker, but a 21-year-old disabled worker under Social Security gets nothing.

And see the graphic:

Who would have guessed that a private plan could have offered better benefits for a disabled individual than Social Security?

Shocking, right?

Not.

It's time for reform.

The clock is ticking.

--------------------------------

Previous Reform Thursday graphics can be seen here:

-Week One (Costs Exceed Revenues).
-Week Two (Social Security Can't Pay Promised Benefits).
-Week Three (Americans Getting Older).
-Week Three, bonus (The Templeton Curve).
-Week Four (Fewer Workers, More Retirees).
-Week Five (History of Payroll Tax Base Increases).
-Week Six (Seniors Living Longer).
-Week Six, bonus (Less Workers, More Beneficiaries).
-Week Seven (History of Payroll Tax Increases).
-Week Seven, bonus (Personal Accounts Do Achieve Solvency).
-Week Eight (Forty Year Trend Of Increasing Mandatory Spending).
-Week Nine (Diminishing Benefits Sans Reform).
-Week Ten (Elderly Dependence On Social Security).
-Week Eleven (Entitlement Spending Eating The Budget).
-Week Twelve (Benefit Comparison, Bush's Plan versus No Plan).
-Week Thirteen (Younger Americans and Lifecycle Funds).
-Week Fourteen (The Thrift Savings Plan).
-Week Fifteen (Understanding Progressive Indexing).
-Week Sixteen (The Graying of America).
-Week Seventeen (Debunking Myths).
-Week Eighteen (Debunking Myths).
-Week Nineteen (Reform Needed Sooner Rather Than Later).
-Week Twenty (Global Success With Personal Accounts).
-Week Twenty-One (GROW Accounts: Stopping The Raid).
-Week Twenty-Two (Millions of Lockboxes).
-Week Twenty-Three (Support for Ryan-DeMint).
-Week Twenty-Four (KidSave Accounts).
-Week Twenty-Five (Latinos and Social Security).
-Week Twenty-Six (AmeriSave).
-Week Twenty-Seven (Cost Of Doing Nothing).
-Week Twenty-Eight (Chile).
-Week Twenty-Nine (Entitlement Spending Out Of Control).
-Week Thirty (Reform Better Deal Than Status Quo).
-Week Thirty-One (Social Security As A Labor Cost).
-Week Thirty-Two (Social Security And Dependence On Government).
-Week Thirty-Three (Social Security, Currently A Bad Deal For African-Americans).
-Week Thirty-Four (Longer Life Expectancies Straining Social Security).
-Week Thirty-Five (Howard Dean & Salami).
-Week Thirty-Six (Growing Numbers of Beneficiaries Draining Social Security).
-Week Thirty-Seven (The Crisis Is Now).

Tune into WILLisms.com each Thursday for more important graphical data supporting Social Security reform.

Posted by Will Franklin · 27 October 2005 08:08 PM · Comments (3)

Trivia Tidbit Of The Day: Part 198 -- Oil Industry Profits.

Oil Industry Profits-

It's earnings season at the NYSE.

Today ExxonMobil announced record profits, which has renewed called for "excess profits" taxes on oil and gas companies.

This morning, ExxonMobil took out this advertisement (.pdf) in a newspapers to put the profits into a bit of contest:

This week, ExxonMobil’s earnings are in the news. But is there more to the story than the headlines?

Our earnings are indeed at a record high, driven largely by the price of the commodities we sell. But if you compare profits per dollar of revenue across a wide range of U.S. companies — a true "apples to apples" evaluation — you see that oil earnings are not out of step with other major industries.

As the chart shows, oil and gas industry earnings averaged 7.7 cents per dollar of revenue during the second quarter compared with the overall U.S. industry average of 7.9 cents. ExxonMobil earned 8.6 cents for every dollar of revenue.

The total earnings numbers in the news reflect not just performance but also the company’s significant scale and global scope. For example, ExxonMobil’s investment of $106 billion in property, plant and equipment alone exceeds the GDP of many of the countries of the world.

These earnings, over two thirds of which stem from non-U.S. businesses, enable us to take on the challenge of meeting the world’s vast and growing energy needs. Last year alone, our new capital investments approached $15 billion, primarily in new exploration and production, but also in refining capacity and new energy-saving and environmental technologies.

While earnings rise and fall with oil prices, our investments do not. That $15 billion was invested in a year when the oil price averaged
just below $40 and earnings were high. But we also invested $15 billion in 1998, when oil dipped to $10 a barrel and annual earnings — at $8 billion — were far lower. In fact, averaged over the last ten years our annual capital investments for the future of the company exceed our earnings.

Ours is a capital-intensive business where investments can take many years to develop. A thoughtful, long-term approach to investment
— regardless of the volatility in prices and earnings — ensures the apple tree continues to bear fruit in the best and worst of times.

Included was this graph (.pdf):

And yet, Marxist Democrats like Senator Cantwell of Washington, Senator Reed of Rhode Island and Senator Dorgan of North Dakota want to punish the oil companies for their success. Words like "profiteering" and "price gouging" are thrown around, willy-nilly.

What exactly is the difference between profiting and profiteering, anyway? The type of industry in which one is involved?

Want to place blame for "high" oil prices?

Look no further than the government, itself:

Environmental regulations, backed by activists who mix demonstrations and lawsuits, create delays and inflate costs.

One Arizona project begun a decade ago is still at least five years away from completion.

Over the last 10 years the industry has invested $47 billion to comply with new environmental controls rather than construct new capacity, according to the American Petroleum Institute. Compliance with sulfur standards alone cost about $20 billion.

Although the recent energy bill included provisions intended to spur refinery construction, it added a new ethanol mandate - a political payoff to agricultural interests - which will force expensive technical adaptations at refineries. Air pollution rules require different gasoline formulations for "nonattainment" areas, reducing economies of scale.

While consumers target gas stations with their ire, the bulk of recent price hikes have gone to refiners. In contrast, distributors, marketers, and retailers receive just a penny more than in 2004.

Even today, prices at the pump are constrained by local competition. If gas stations could charge as much as they desired, they would have been doing so already.

Government also pushes up prices through taxes, which average 42 cents a gallon nationally. In Hawaii, where the state government has imposed price controls, the combined state and federal tax is more than 50 cents.

It boggles my mind that so many communists are still allowed into the halls of Congress.

-------------------------------------

Previous Trivia Tidbit: Oil Taxes & Profits.

Posted by Will Franklin · 27 October 2005 03:58 PM · Comments (8)

Trivia Tidbit Of The Day: Part 197 -- Oil Profits.

"Excess" profits taxes-

In recent months, as the price of a gallon of gasoline has hit nominal highs, we've heard calls from some Democrats for a special "excess profits tax," applicable exclusively to energy companies.

What the heck kind of Marxist nonsense is an "excess profit," anyway?

The Tax Foundation explains that oil industry profits are cyclical:

Meanwhile, if oil company profits are high, what does that make the taxes on them?

Exorbitant:

Due in part to substantial hikes in the federal gasoline excise tax in 1983, 1990, and 1993, annual tax revenues have continued to grow. Since 1977, governments collected more than $1.34 trillion, after adjusting for inflation, in gasoline tax revenues—more than twice the amount of domestic profits earned by major U.S. oil companies during the same period.

Maybe we should impose an "excess tax refund" when gas tax collections are above corporate profit levels. Incidentally, what other industry is taxed as much as the oil industry? Cigarettes? Booze?

And it's because the government is addicted to those revenues:

...there have been only three years (1980, 1981, and 1982) in which domestic oil industry profits exceeded government gas tax collections. In the remaining years, gasoline tax collections consistently exceeded oil industry profits, reaching a peak in 1995 when gas tax collections outpaced industry profits by a factor of 7.3.

The oil business is a boom and bust business. The good times are good, but the down times are terrible-- and terrifying for families employed by energy companies, large, medium, and small. I say this as someone who grew up in small oil towns. People dwell on the good times but don't ever talk about the down times, the times when oil prices are so low that layoffs are just about the only way for these companies to remain profitable. In 1999, as I was nearing graduation from high school in Midland, Texas, the price of a barrel of oil dipped below $10, after remaining below $15 dollars for more than a year. It wasn't good. Many people relocated. Many were forced into early retirement. Many were just laid off. Midland's economy took quite a hit during that time. It wasn't pleasant for a lot of good folks.

The point of this anecdote is not that you should feel sorry for small oil towns when oil prices drop and their economies shatter. It's more that you should understand just how up and down the oil business is. The good times are not infinite, nor are they even really as great as you might imagine. The good times are a reward for hanging in there during the bad times. And smart companies try to level things out during downturns with profits earned during the fleeting upswings.

So, to those advocating an "excess profits tax" on oil companies, shame on you. You, Senator Dorgan (.pdf), are communist scum.

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Previous Trivia Tidbit: Guns & Gun Crime.

Posted by Will Franklin · 26 October 2005 11:58 PM · Comments (2)

Congrats to the Chicago White Sox, MLB World Series Champs.

It hurts. 0-4 sweep.

But congrats to the World Champion Chicago White Sox, their first championship in 88 years.

Posted by Will Franklin · 26 October 2005 11:03 PM · Comments (1)

White Sox Win World Series!

Un-frickin'-believable.

Posted by Ken McCracken · 26 October 2005 11:03 PM · Comments (2)

Union Victory In Katrina Rebuilding: Reinstatement Of Davis-Bacon.

We've all seen the devastation on television (and maybe even in person). Hurricane Katrina will have a lasting impact on the Gulf Coast region for quite some time.

The rebuilding is not going to be completed overnight, nor will it come cheaply, but government can certainly hurt or help its own cause.

One way to jump-start the rebuilding process would be to eliminate all the red tape, regulations, rules, and restrictions. For example, contractors for federal projects must follow a set of rules known as "Davis-Bacon." The U.S. Department of Labor's Davis-Bacon regulations (40 U.S.C. 3141-3148), now more than 70 years old, essentially require that companies awarded contracts play by union rules, particularly on wages.

After 35 House Republicans pushed for the temporary suspension of Davis-Bacon, President Bush went one step further and suspended the rules indefinitely on September 8 in order to speed up the reconstruction in designated areas in Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana.

Now, however, some conservative bloggers (via Instapundit) are none too happy about President Bush's decision to reinstate Davis-Bacon on federally funded recovery and reconstruction projects in the Katrina disaster zone:

This latest decision, along with the lack of vocal White House support for the Coburn amendments last week and the growing fiasco of the Harriet Miers nomination for the U.S. Supreme Court could well ignite an open revolt on the Right that could seriously damage Bush's ability to get anything through Congress for the rest of his second term in the presidency.