WILLisms.com: Whitehouse Scandal For Fun And Profit!

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Whitehouse Scandal For Fun And Profit!

Tom Maquire of Just One Minute, who is basically the go-to guy covering the Plame Affair, is requesting ideas on how to best play a spread on the chances of Rove and/or Libby being indicted over at TradeSports:

FWIW: Last night there was a bit of a "Rove rally" at TradeSports. Well, "rally" for Sinister Righties - the market odds of a Rove indictment fell to about 45%. Libby was holding tough at around an 80% probability of indictment.

Currently, as of Wednesday morning: the probability of a Rove indictment is at 63%; Libby is at 76%.

OK - folks who want to back my play should SELL the Rove contract, which is headed to zero; profit will be a full $6.30 per contract.

Buy the Libby contract and try to pocket the difference when the contract rises from 76 to 100, for a profit of $3.40 per contract.

And ideas for clever spread trades? Maybe buy two Libbys for each sale of Rove, figuring there is no way that Rove is indicted and Libby walks? Very clever, but we don't give investment advice here, we just speculate. For educational purposes only, of course.

Whaddya bet George Soros is long on these contracts?

Posted by Ken McCracken · 26 October 2005 10:30 AM

Comments

Plame had an affair?

I think that's the only way anyone would be able to make heads or tails of this thing. Right now, the entire saga is utterly inaccessible to the casual reader.

Posted by: Will Franklin at October 26, 2005 11:18 AM

Heheheh actually if you want to sex it up a bit you could do like Rick Moran does and call it L'Affaire D'Plame.

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