The Babe Theory Of Political Movements.
Mar. 21, 2005 11:50 AM
Iran's Sham Election In Houston.
June 20, 2005 5:36 AM
Yes, Kanye, Bush Does Care.
Oct. 31, 2005 12:41 AM
Health Care vs. Wealth Care.
Nov. 23, 2005 3:28 PM
Americans Voting With Their Feet.
Nov. 30, 2005 1:33 PM
Idea Majorities Matter.
May 12, 2006 6:15 PM
Twilight Zone Economics.
Oct. 17, 2006 12:30 AM
The "Shrinking" Middle Class.
Dec. 13, 2006 1:01 PM
From Ashes, GOP Opportunities.
Dec. 18, 2006 6:37 PM
Battle Between Entitlements & Pork.
Dec. 21, 2006 12:31 PM
Let Economic Freedom Reign.
Dec. 22, 2006 10:22 PM
Biggest Health Care Moment In Decades.
July 25, 2007 4:32 PM
Unions Antithetical to Liberty.
May 28, 2008 11:12 PM
Right To Work States Rock.
June 9, 2008 12:25 PM
Social Security Reform Thursday.
March 13, 2008
Caption Contest: Enter Today!
Due: July 29, 2008
The Carnival Of Classiness.
Mar. 14, 2006
Quotational Therapy: Obama.
Apr. 4, 2008
Mainstream Melee: Wolfowitz.
May 19, 2007
Pundit Roundtable: Leaks.
July 9, 2006
A WILLisms.com(ic), by Ken McCracken
July 14, 2006
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Trivia Tidbit Of The Day: Part 270 -- Where The People Are.
America, especially "Bush Country," is growing:
If we assume that the states continue to grow at the rate they have since 2000, then by 2010 America will have grown by 10 percent, having added 29 million people, and will have more than 311 million people. From 1990 to 2000, we grew at an even faster clip, by almost 33 million people, or 13.2 percent.
And the growth, as we know, has not distributed evenly:
Growth in the United States is regional. The Northeast and Midwest states are our Europe, creeping along, barely growing or even shrinking. Since the 2000 census, the District of Columbia and North Dakota have shrunk. Massachusetts and New York were estimated to have lost population last year and will join Iowa, Louisiana, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and others as states that will gain less than 4 percent population in a decade.
As a fan of sports, and a political junkie, I am constantly drawing parallels between the two.
In my mind.
But I rarely talk about them, for whatever reason.
So here's a theory I have been bouncing around for a while:
As America's demographics continue to change, regions/states/localities with the most robust economic and population growth will gain political power and influence at the expense of stagnating and/or shrinking regions/states/localities.
Duh. Everyone knows that.
But add this to the equation:
College sports teams within those diminishing regions/states/localities, even traditional powers, will lose status relative to teams within the growing regions/states/localities.
In other words, as states like Texas, Florida, Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, and Georgia continue to gain population at the expense of states like Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, New York, New Jersey, and Massachusetts, colleges within those states will gain and lose status, accordingly.
Then, factor in that certain states (usually the same ones gaining people due to domestic migration) have higher birth rates, even taking out Latino immigrants, than other states.
You get power, wealth, and prestige. You also get:
I. Lots of political representation.
II. Lots of suburban high schools. Lots of kids.
III. Lots of good college sports teams.
It will take decades to materialize, but it will materialize. Indeed, in some ways, it has already materialized. Florida's explosive growth over the past 50 years has allowed that state, with no collegiate sports tradition or history to speak of, to develop at least three major top-tier sports programs (Florida, Florida State, and Miami).
Don't think the same thing won't happen in Arizona. It will.
Meanwhile, the Big Ten conference, with all those rust belt states, will experience diminished relative resources, diminished talent, diminished everything. Ohio State and Michigan, two traditional college football powers, could become diminishingly relevant.
Projections are for Texas and Florida to gain three seats, Arizona two and California, Georgia, Nevada and Utah one. Balancing those gains will be losses of two seats each from New York and Ohio and one from Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, Missouri and Louisiana.
And more say in the hunt for the national title.
Previous Trivia Tidbit: Costly Tax Code Compliance.
Posted by Will Franklin · 16 February 2006 09:25 AM
I think there was a quote from Mark Twain that said something about how he wanted to move to Cincinnati if the world ended, because it was always 20 years behind.
Posted by: business babe at February 16, 2006 09:32 AM
So America will grow by 10% b/t 2000 and 2010. Yet cuts in growth of federal programs don't constitute spending cuts why again?
Posted by: thomas at February 16, 2006 10:17 AM
Thomas... you're not so good with math are you?
Posted by: Hoodlumman at February 16, 2006 10:25 AM
Learn some math. Growing the federal budget 5-10% (or more) each year over ten years means that spending growth is far, far outpacing inflation and population gains.
Posted by: Will Franklin at February 16, 2006 10:25 AM
It doesn't mean any such thing. Have you maybe thought about inflation? Apparently not. retiring baby boomers? Nope.
Posted by: thomas at February 16, 2006 12:06 PM
OK, so even if spending growth increases at 5% per year, that is 2-3% above inflation. So if population grows 10% over 10 years, that is a compound growth rate of less than 1% per year as compared to modest spending growth of 2-3%. And that is at minimal spending growth rates.
Speaking of retiring baby boomers, what happens to our entitlement programs when they do retire? Since we are talking about it, does this population growth combined with the explosive growth of entitlement programs cost due to baby boomers constitute a crisis?
Posted by: Justin B at February 16, 2006 02:30 PM
BTW, this is exactly why Florida, Texas, California, Nevada, and Arizona have relatively few worries about a "housing bubble". However, this does not bode well for the Rust Belt, NY, MA, etc. These areas of the northeast have major housing price issues to deal with.
I live in AZ and with 35% growth in a decade, you have to expect that these folks will continue buying houses at sustained pace for the next few years. With Katrina driving up commodities prices, this translated into long term and short term rising home prices.
As to the premise that this will translate into better collegiate sports teams in the high growth areas, damn skippy. We are already seeing better instate recruits like Terrell Suggs, Zach Miller, and Keegan Herring produced locally playing for ASU. In-state recruiting is extremely powerful and important as demonstrated by the Florida schools, Texas schools, California schools, and Nebraska, Oklahoma, etc. First step is get the best athletes in your own state, then focus on recruiting other places.
Posted by: Justin B at February 16, 2006 02:41 PM
Wow Thomas!... If you have been reading WILLisms.com you would already know he thinks about inflation and the baby boomers Quite alot ... That is why WILLisms stresses Social Security Reform...
Posted by: Zsa Zsa at February 16, 2006 03:10 PM
Bah on thomas.
Let's get back to UGA winning more National Titles.
We already know that the SEC title game is always higher-ranked on TV than many of the other divisional title games. Will simply made it all make sense.
Interesting analysis. I've never thought of it like that.
Posted by: Shamalama at February 16, 2006 04:48 PM
Indeed. GO DAWGS!!!!!
Posted by: Charles at February 17, 2006 01:30 PM