WILLisms.com: March 2006 Archives

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Quotational Therapy: Part 86 -- Lincoln, On Public Opinion.

Applicable To All Those Fraudulent Media Polls & All That Biased Reporting-

Honest Abe Lincoln, on public opinion:

With public sentiment, nothing can fail; without it nothing can succeed. Consequently he who moulds public sentiment, goes deeper than he who enacts statutes or pronounces decisions. He makes statutes and decisions possible or impossible to be executed.

That's from Lincoln's first debate with Stephen Douglas.

And it's absolutely true. While blogs and other sources of information outside of the left-wing media establishment are rapidly gaining in popularity, it's the big media giants that still set the agenda. Whether it is those intentionally skewed or misrepresented polls, which become self-fulfilling prophesies over time, or the relentless drumbeat of hyperbole and tabloidism and trumped up scandal, our out-of-touch media giants are failing our Republic.

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Previous Quotational Therapy Session:

Grover Cleveland, Democrat, Surplus-Giver-Backer.

The right quote can be therapeutic, so tune in to WILLisms.com for quotational therapy on Monday and Friday.

Posted by Will Franklin · 31 March 2006 09:20 AM · Comments (0)

Social Security Reform Thursday: Week Fifty-Two -- Socialist Security.

Thursdays are good days for reform, because they fall between Wednesdays and Fridays. Just because the status quo'ers got their way in 2005 does not mean the problem has gone away. Indeed, it's getting worse with each passing day. Thus, Reform Thursday continues.

That's why WILLisms.com offers a chart or graph, every Thursday, pertinent to Social Security reform.

This week's topic:

Social Security Is Socialist Security.

By now, it ought to be well-established that Social Security is on an unsustainable track. For myriad reasons, reform is absolutely crucial. For example, just as a refresher, note that the worker to beneficiary ratio is not where it was in the beginning of the program:

It's a demographic time bomb we know full well is coming, yet nearly every elected Democrat and a few elected Republicans have chosen to ignore-- to table-- the problem.

But did you know just how socialist Social Security really is?

It's more than just a socialist pyramid scheme in theory. It was, fittingly, thought up by a socialist.

Yes, the "Father of Social Security," Edwin Witte, a bitter rival of free market economist Milton Friedman, was a avowed socialist (.pdf):

Yeah, that's him on the left, there.

Posing for the University of Wisconsin's Socialist Club yearbook photo.

The Father of Socialist Security. And what a brilliant mind-- what wonderful foresight (that's sarcasm)-- he had (.pdf):

As they were drafting the original bill, Witte and his actuaries calculated the program’s revenues and expenses for forty-five years, until 1980. They predicted, with relative accuracy, the lengthening of the American life span and the growth of the elderly segment of the population, from 5.4 percent (or around 7 million) in 1935 to 11.3 percent (or more than 20 million) in 1980.
But they failed to predict the effect of the post-World War II baby boom — or, more importantly, the baby bust that followed. Because of the drop in fertility rates that began in the late 1950s, young workers make up a smaller portion of the population than they once did, and retired people make up a larger and larger portion. In 1945, just before the baby boom began, there were nearly 42 workers paying into Social Security for each retiree taking benefits out. In 2005, this ratio had dropped to 3.3 to 1, and by 2030, it will fall to 2.2 to 1. This deficit of workers is what threatens Social Security’s — and the economy’s — future.

We can grow our way out of a lot of fiscal problems, but we can't grow our way out of the looming crisis in Social Security. And it is a crisis.

It's time for reform.

The clock is ticking:

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Previous Reform Thursday graphics can be seen here:

-Week One (Costs Exceed Revenues).
-Week Two (Social Security Can't Pay Promised Benefits).
-Week Three (Americans Getting Older).
-Week Three, bonus (The Templeton Curve).
-Week Four (Fewer Workers, More Retirees).
-Week Five (History of Payroll Tax Base Increases).
-Week Six (Seniors Living Longer).
-Week Six, bonus (Less Workers, More Beneficiaries).
-Week Seven (History of Payroll Tax Increases).
-Week Seven, bonus (Personal Accounts Do Achieve Solvency).
-Week Eight (Forty Year Trend Of Increasing Mandatory Spending).
-Week Nine (Diminishing Benefits Sans Reform).
-Week Ten (Elderly Dependence On Social Security).
-Week Eleven (Entitlement Spending Eating The Budget).
-Week Twelve (Benefit Comparison, Bush's Plan versus No Plan).
-Week Thirteen (Younger Americans and Lifecycle Funds).
-Week Fourteen (The Thrift Savings Plan).
-Week Fifteen (Understanding Progressive Indexing).
-Week Sixteen (The Graying of America).
-Week Seventeen (Debunking Myths).
-Week Eighteen (Debunking Myths).
-Week Nineteen (Reform Needed Sooner Rather Than Later).
-Week Twenty (Global Success With Personal Accounts).
-Week Twenty-One (GROW Accounts: Stopping The Raid).
-Week Twenty-Two (Millions of Lockboxes).
-Week Twenty-Three (Support for Ryan-DeMint).
-Week Twenty-Four (KidSave Accounts).
-Week Twenty-Five (Latinos and Social Security).
-Week Twenty-Six (AmeriSave).
-Week Twenty-Seven (Cost Of Doing Nothing).
-Week Twenty-Eight (Chile).
-Week Twenty-Nine (Entitlement Spending Out Of Control).
-Week Thirty (Reform Better Deal Than Status Quo).
-Week Thirty-One (Social Security As A Labor Cost).
-Week Thirty-Two (Social Security And Dependence On Government).
-Week Thirty-Three (Social Security, Currently A Bad Deal For African-Americans).
-Week Thirty-Four (Longer Life Expectancies Straining Social Security).
-Week Thirty-Five (Howard Dean & Salami).
-Week Thirty-Six (Growing Numbers of Beneficiaries Draining Social Security).
-Week Thirty-Seven (The Crisis Is Now).
-Week Thirty-Eight (Disability Benefits).
-Week Thirty-Nine (Broken Benefit Calculation Formula).
-Week Forty (German Social Security Disaster).
-Week Forty-One (Crumbling Pyramid Scheme).
-Week Forty-Two (Overpromising, Globally).
-Week Forty-Three (Demographic Wave).
-Week Forty-Four (The Jerk Store).
-Week Forty-Five (Defined Benefit Plans).
-Week Forty-Six (Even The Empty Promises Are A Bad Deal).
-Week Forty-Seven (Our Aging Population).
-Week Forty-Eight (The Tax Increases Required To Cover Social Security's Costs).
-Week Forty-Nine (Much Longer To Get Your Money Back From Social Security).
-Week Fifty (A Vote, At Last).
-Week Fifty-One (We Can Do Better).

Tune into WILLisms.com each Thursday for more important graphical data supporting Social Security reform.

Posted by Will Franklin · 30 March 2006 09:53 PM · Comments (1)

Trivia Tidbit Of The Day: Part 312 -- Texas Tax Reform

Property Tax Relief-

As noted before, Texas is one of several states that has a favorable tax scheme relative to other states. But property taxes in Texas have gone sky-high in recent years (.pdf):

Governor Rick Perry's Texas Tax Reform Commission issued its report and plan this week to fix the problem.

Essentially, the plan is to substantially raise the tax on tobacco (by a buck to $1.41 per pack), broaden the franchise tax base (while lowering the franchise tax rate from 4.5% to 1%), and use the budget surpluses to "buy down" property taxes.

Lower property taxes and funding public education are essentially the only two issues that voting Texans even care about. There's urgency, therefore, to get something done this election year.

While this proposal technically raises taxes here and lowers them there, most people will see tax relief:

Overall, the net savings would average slightly more than 2 percent for non- smokers, after consumers paid potentially higher costs of goods and services associated with a new business tax.

However, cutting property taxes by a third (and by 6 billion dollars) makes the plan a winner. We'll see how this goes, though. Those of us who have read other reports by other commissions [ahem, the President's Social Security and tax reform panels, ahem] know well the perils of legislative maneuvering. It's easy to find flaws in any plan to change the status quo, but when the status quo is broken, a few flaws are more than tolerable.

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Previous Trivia Tidbit: Environmentalism.

Posted by Will Franklin · 30 March 2006 09:05 PM · Comments (1)

Trivia Tidbit Of The Day: Part 311 -- The Environment.

Flaws of Kyoto-

Another strong, fact-filled monthly op-ed from Pete Du Pont in this week's WSJ:

Masquerading as a global environmental policy, Kyoto exempts half of the world's population and nine of the top 20 emitters of carbon dioxide--including China and India--from its emissions reduction requirements. It is in fact an effort to replace the world's markets with an internationally regulated (think U.N.) global economy, perhaps better described as a predatory trade strategy to level the world's economic playing field by penalizing the economic growth of energy efficient nations and rewarding those emitting much greater quantities of noxious gasses. Which explains why in 1997 the U.S. Senate voted 95-0 to oppose the signing of any international protocol that would commit Western nations to reduce emissions unless developing countries had to do so as well.
As The Wall Street Journal recently pointed out, almost none of the nations that signed on are meeting Kyoto's requirements. Thirteen of the original 15 European signatories will likely miss the 2010 emission reduction targets. Spain will miss its target by 33 percentage points and Denmark by 25 points. Targets aside, Greece and Canada have seen their emissions rise by 23% and 24%, respectively, since 1990. As for America, our emissions have increased 16%, so we are doing better than many of the Kyoto nations.

The reporting on global warming and the environment has gotten to the point where there is no reporting other than the left-wing anti-progress enviro-orthodoxy. It's nice to see someone offer a bit of truth to the mix.

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Previous Trivia Tidbit: Our Spending Fate Sealed Generations Ago.

Posted by Will Franklin · 29 March 2006 11:59 PM · Comments (0)

Wednesday Caption Contest: Part 49.

This week's WILLisms.com Caption Contest photograph:

The actual caption:

U.S. Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY) (L) hugs Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams as he arrives for their meeting on Capitol Hill in Washington March 16, 2006. REUTERS/Jim Young

Surely there's a better caption for this photograph.

Entries will remain open until 11:59 PM, Central Standard Time, Tuesday, April 4. Submit your captions in the comments section, or email at WILLisms@gmail.com.

Last week's photo:

Winners from last week:

Rodney Dill:

"Hmmm.. my second term could use more Cow Bell."

Hoodlumman:

President Bush briefly poses for the cameras next to The Donald Rumsfeld White House Dinner Bell.

Rodney Dill:

GWOT MILK?

Honorable Mention #1

Hoodlumman:

George Bush spent weeks practicing for the day when the NYSE would let him ring the closing bell.

Honorable Mention #2

Mr Michael:

Once rung, the Bell of Binalatongan cannot be Unrung... and according to Legend, if I ring this Bell, the Powers of Mangatarem will assemble to help smite all of my enemies!
...so I'm looking at you, Mr. Smart-Ass Reuters guy... you want me to Ring this Bell?

Honorable Mention #3

radio free fred:

"This Is The City Los Angeles California, My Name Is Friday."

Honorable Mention #4

GOP and College:

"Moo Bi$%^, get out the way get out the way..."

But, really, you're all winners in my book.

Captioning is too sexy to be president.

Enter today!

Posted by Will Franklin · 29 March 2006 10:23 AM · Comments (27)

Trivia Tidbit Of The Day: Part 310 -- Mandatory Spending.

Spending Set In Stone (Without Reform)-

Mandatory spending (non-discretionary, non-defense) is up in this country over the long-term, and with the demographic iceberg approaching (Baby Boomers retiring), it's only going to get worse.

As a share of the national economy, mandatory spending has been consistently greater than discretionary spending since the end of the Cold War (.pdf):

Even with relatively strong economic growth, we can expect a significant rise in the next few decades without major reform.

Meanwhile, as a percentage of the federal budget itself, mandatory spending is consuming increasingly more of outlays (.pdf):

We're approaching a point where we could eliminate most discretionary spending and still fail to balance the budget. Meanwhile, the representative nature of our Republic suffers as we cannot choose our priorities. Those were chosen years ago.

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Previous Trivia Tidbit: Democrats Hate The World.

Posted by Will Franklin · 28 March 2006 07:21 PM · Comments (0)

Free Associating John Kerry's List

I found John Kerry's requirements list that is making the rounds to be screamingly funny - and I am really not sure why. I mean, it isn't all that effete, is it? I just had to fire up Photoshop and add my own snark. These things must be done.

There is actually a far funnier list of items at Ace's place.

Posted by Ken McCracken · 27 March 2006 10:29 PM · Comments (6)

Trivia Tidbit Of The Day: Part 309 -- Faking Dissatisfaction.

Republicans Way More Satisfied Than Democrats-

Looming over the country right now is a vague sense of dissatisfaction. Nobody seems happy with much of anything. Democrats, who are dissatisfied with their own leadership almost as much as the President himself, are gloomy for obvious reasons. Many Republicans, meanwhile, are also dissatisfied. Some conservatives are wondering why many GOP Senators in particular are acting like liberals. Where is the Social Security reform? And major tax reform? Others are wondering why abortion is still legal, why Terri Schiavo was dehydrated to death, why the entertainment industrial-complex is still run by radical left-wingers, why the borders still have not been sealed off with a giant wall, and so on.

There's this weird angst out there, occasionally cutting across and between partisan lines, about Iraq and outsourcing (offshoring, really) and China and globalization and oil prices and housing bubbles and bird flu and terrorism and and record budget deficits and AIDS and poverty and foreign management of port operations and racism and tsunamis and hurricanes and global warming and health care and SUVs and Wal-Mart and religion and attacks on religion and corruption and corporate scandals and Iran and everything else out there that's frightening and new about the world.

That being said, there's plenty to be satisfied about. Moreso than usual, even. And certainly moreso than in most of the rest of the world. Meanwhile, most of the concerns listed above are easily dismissed or explained with a little research and a lot of perspective. For the most part, whether it's the economy or the environment, things are almost unanimously better than they've ever been.

The economy, usually the root of all polling satisfaction or lack thereof, is steaming ahead.

Lots of new jobs (.pdf):

Continuous GDP growth (.pdf):

Inflation, amazingly, has remained low. Existing and new home sales continue to boom, as ever more Americans own their own homes. There's just a lot of good economic news out there. And there has been a lot of good economic news for quite a while now.

Yet, people remain relatively dissatisfied with the economy.

More than that, for the first time in the George W. Bush presidency, satisfaction has dipped below 30%. Put into context, this has happened in every single presidency since the 1970s, but it often rebounds:

But if we look closer, we discover that this dip is different from previous dips. This dip is driven by a truly record low of Democrats who express satisfaction, even as a solid majority of Republicans express satisfaction. The chasm between partisans is truly chasmic:

In other words, Democrats are essentially as dissatisfied as they have ever been. Ever. Clearly, Republicans are from Mars and Democrats are from Venus. In prior sub-30 satisfaction situations, it's been bi-partisan. This one, not so much.

It makes one wonder whether some folks on the other side of the aisle might be responding to these polls a bit differently than in the past. Because polls have usurped front-and-center on the political stage, people are beginning to understand that how one answers certain poll questions has consequences. So, if the question can reflect negatively on Bush, go for it, even if it's not true.

Incidentally, the Pew Research Center blames President Clinton's sub-30 satisfaction level on the economy. "The Clinton administration inherited that bad economy," they claim.

How many times does this claim need to be refuted, anyway? As Clinton assumed office, the recession had ended many months before. It was this president, George W. Bush, that inherited a weak economy, not President Clinton in 1992. However, it was President Clinton, not this president, who received a boost in poll ratings from a booming economy.

Will President George W. Bush ever receive a poll rating boost that reflects the strength of the American economy today? There's still nearly 3 years left in his term, so I wouldn't rule anything out.

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Previous Trivia Tidbit: Marriage.

Posted by Will Franklin · 27 March 2006 04:22 PM · Comments (3)

Quotational Therapy: Part 85 -- Grover Cleveland, Democrat.

What To Do With Surpluses-

When more of the people's substance is exacted through the form of taxation than is necessary to meet the just obligations of the Government and the expense of its economical administration, such exaction becomes ruthless extortion and a violation of the fundamental principles of a free government.

-Grover Cleveland, December 6, 1886.

Can you imagine a Democrat today making that sort of comment? Of course not. Today's Democrats don't believe that government budget surpluses should be returned to the people via tax relief; Democrats today almost unanimously believe surpluses are more of a budget windfall that ought to be used for bigger, better, and more projects and programs.

When surpluses come around once more (very likely in the next few years), which party controls Washington will matter.

In the meantime, there are budget surpluses in state capitals all around the country. How states use those surpluses will directly affect how competitive those states are, demographically and economically, compared to one another. A lower tax burden will give a state a leg up in attracting and retaining individuals and commerce. States that devote the surpluses to social engineering and other government boondoggles will create higher relative tax burdens, which will spur people to move elsewhere.

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Previous Quotational Therapy Session:

Woodrow Wilson.

The right quote can be therapeutic, so tune in to WILLisms.com for quotational therapy on Monday and Friday.

Posted by Will Franklin · 27 March 2006 08:51 AM · Comments (0)

Guillermo Fariñas: Death Before Censorship

"I will be a martyr for the free information in the world."

Cuban journalist Guillermo Fariñas Hernández has not had food or water since January 31st, and is now in critical condition. Why? He is on a hunger strike against Fidel Castro's red fascist regime, and has vowed death if Cuban journalists are not allowed internet access.

Guillermo Fariñas Hernández

Fariñas is editor of the Cubanacán Press independent news agency. Reporters Without Borders has been championing his cause, and you can read more about him here.

What can you do? You can link to this post to keep this issue swarming.

You can sign a petition for his release.

This is a kind of watershed moment - internet access has become a life-and-death issue, both for the oppressed, and the oppressor . . .

Thanks to Dean Esmay for bringing this to our attention.

Abajo Fidel, indeed!

Posted by Ken McCracken · 27 March 2006 08:25 AM · Comments (5)

Sunday Night Heidi Weimaraner Puppy Update: 11½ Weeks Old.

Heidi is still growing like crazy. Here's your Sunday update:

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Last week's update.

Posted by Will Franklin · 26 March 2006 09:16 PM · Comments (5)

Trivia Tidbit Of The Day: Part 308 -- The Disintegrating Family.

What The Welfare State Hath Wrought-

The Washington Post offers a provokative piece today titled "Marriage Is for White People."

Some excerpts:

The marriage rate for African Americans has been dropping since the 1960s, and today, we have the lowest marriage rate of any racial group in the United States. In 2001, according to the U.S. Census, 43.3 percent of black men and 41.9 percent of black women in America had never been married, in contrast to 27.4 percent and 20.7 percent respectively for whites. African American women are the least likely in our society to marry. In the period between 1970 and 2001, the overall marriage rate in the United States declined by 17 percent; but for blacks, it fell by 34 percent.

When the state usurps the basic human functions and responsibilities families ought to perform, families disintegrate.

And:

In 1960, 67 percent of black families were headed by a husband and wife, compared to 90.9 percent for whites. By 2000, the figure for white families had dropped to 79.8 percent. Births to unwed white mothers were 22.5 percent in 2001, compared to 2.3 percent in 1960.

Some interesting and not-all-that-great data.

So I checked some Census data myself, and found this chart to be rather interesting (.pdf) (click for a larger table):

In terms of marriage endurance, there are very real differences between and among racial groups. But the expansion of the welfare state clearly has had a deleterious effect on all marriages and families, not just those of African-Americans.

And the deterioration of the family is not just a moral or ethical or Biblical issue. It's a poverty issue. One of the more consistently proven contributing factors to poverty is having children out of wedlock. It's not just correlation there, it's empirically-proven causation.

Meanwhile, married people are happier than unwed folks.

Marriage is worth protecting, promoting, and preserving, in other words, and it's unfortunate that so many people seem so uninterested in marriage these days:

Of course, unlike some, I am not willing to declare that we're in any sort of crisis mode. I just hope we never trend down the European path, where marriage is marginalized behind a wall of state-run bureaucracy.

But, if we are to avoid becoming a state>family society, the trend isn't all that great:

Makes Charles Murray's plan to replace the welfare state all that more intriguing (although serious discussion of it could never go anywhere in this political climate).

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Previous Trivia Tidbit: Some Sanity (& Uncommon Wisdom) On Deficits.

Posted by Will Franklin · 26 March 2006 08:02 PM · Comments (3)

Pundit Roundtable - Hometown Edition

Hi folks! If you were expecting more scintillating analysis of world and national events, tough cookies! Yes, this is where PUNDIT ROUNDTABLE jumps the shark, goes completely pointless, and succumbs to the laziness of its creator. Actually, I have been trying to think of a good topic since last Thursday, and came up with nada. But what do you expect? It's hard to follow an act like Jim Hoft these days.

And Giacomo, I still want to invite you back, when I can think of an actual topic or two.

So I thought I might just show the world some of the luminaries from my hometown, Downers Grove, Illinois (it has its own Wikipedia entry!). Randy Savage and Denise Richards both graduated from Downers Grove North High School, my alma mater. Emo Phillips? Dunno, but he can still be seen tottering around downtown Downers Grove.

	Randy Savage
	Denise Richards
	Emo Phillips

They pretty much run the gamut, I'd say.

Can anyone out there top this?

P.S. We are always looking for new pundits to join in, please email me if you want to discuss serious topics. Someday.

Update: This post at Say Anything reminded me that Baghdad Jim McDermott also graduated from Downers Grove North High School.

Ack.

Posted by Ken McCracken · 26 March 2006 02:48 PM · Comments (17)

Trivia Tidbit Of The Day: Part 307 -- When Deficit Reductions Are Duplicitous.

Criticizing Lower Than Expected Deficits-

This is a remarkable (and telling) series of sentences from the Associated Press:

The administration in recent years has consistently put forth deficit estimates in February that have turned out to be too pessimistic when the books are tallied in October. Last year, for example, the White House initially predicted a 2005 deficit of $427 billion; the year-end result was $318 billion.
And in 2004, when Bush promised to cut the deficit in half by the end of his term, the White House projected a whopping $521 billion deficit. Even though the actual deficit for that year came in at $413 billion, Bush has used the higher figure as the benchmark for keeping his promise.

What? First of all, that last part is just not true; the insinuation that Bush is cooking the books to keep his deficit-cutting promise is absurd. Seven trivia tidbits ago, this should have been clear. Both the projected deficits and the real deficits were included in the White House OMB chart. Either way, the deficits are smaller and smaller.

Secondly, President Bush is right on track to keep his promise (and then some) of cutting the deficit in half, whether the benchmark is 521 or 413 billion dollars.

Third, any deficit number is meaningless without context. As a number by itself, it doesn't mean much. As a percentage of GDP, deficit numbers do mean something. But either way, in raw dollars or in the context of the size of America's economy, the deficit is actually shrinking at this point.

Fourth, since when is beating expectations (that everyone in the media seemed to agree upon) a bad thing? The AP story makes it sound so sinister (using the word "pessimistic," for example). It's not sinister. It's just that the rapidly growing economy contributed to record tax revenues. That's reflects well on the President's economic leadership.

Fifth, while it is politically smart to lower expectations, I like to deal in facts. The facts indicate that we'll have surpluses in a couple more years if the trends hold up. That's not guaranteed, but it is likely.

The Skeptical Optimist has a great post on this, with this great chart:

And this great turn of phrase:

I keep thinking maybe it will whack us in the back of the head “next month.” But I’ve been thinking that for twelve months now, with no luck. The deficit just keeps trending downward and downward. In any case, one of two things will have to change soon: either the deficit will start increasing, or the rhetoric about growing deficits will have to start decreasing.

Even with out-of-control spending increases, we'll end up with surpluses in the short-term, unless economic policies change for the worse (tax hikes, trade isolationism, etc.), slowing down the economy. I'm not convinced we can grow our way, however, out of the longer-term entitlement crisis our nation faces, without major reform.

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Previous Trivia Tidbit: Congressional Ideology Spectrum.

Posted by Will Franklin · 25 March 2006 10:27 PM · Comments (2)

Trivia Tidbit Of The Day: Part 306 -- Ideological Spectrum.

Neat-

This is a neat way to view members of Congress:

Click on it to go see it.

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Previous Trivia Tidbit: People Like To Say "Salsa".

Posted by Will Franklin · 24 March 2006 09:35 PM · Comments (3)

Quotational Therapy: Part 84 -- A World Safe For Democracy.

Woodrow Wilson-

President Bush is often called "Wilsonian" in his zeal for democracy. Here's why:

"We are now about to accept gage of battle with this natural foe to liberty and shall, if necessary, spend the whole force of the nation to check and nullify its pretensions and its power. We are glad, now that we see the facts with no veil of false pretence about them, to fight thus for the ultimate peace of the world and for the liberation of its peoples, the German peoples included: for the rights of nations great and small and the privilege of men everywhere to choose their way of life and of obedience. The world must be made safe for democracy. Its peace must be planted upon the tested foundations of political liberty."

- Woodrow Wilson, April 2, 1917

Thanks to Mick Wright of Fishkite for sending this quote my way.

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Previous Quotational Therapy Session:

Bush Does Not Fear The Future.

The right quote can be therapeutic, so tune in to WILLisms.com for quotational therapy on Monday and Friday.

Posted by Will Franklin · 24 March 2006 07:05 PM · Comments (0)

Trivia Tidbit Of The Day: Part 305 -- People Like To Say "Salsa."

Hispanic Businesses-

Did you know that tortillas now outsell Wonder Bread in the U.S.? And salsa outsells ketchup?

Apparently so.

But wait, there's more.

The number of Hispanic-owned businesses grew 31 percent between 1997 and 2002 — three times the national average for all businesses — according to a new report, Survey of Business Owners: Hispanic-Owned Firms: 2002 (.pdf), released today by the U.S. Census Bureau. The nearly 1.6 million Hispanic-owned businesses generated nearly $222 billion in revenue, up 19 percent from 1997.

And more tidbits:

* In 2002, nearly 3-in-10 Hispanic-owned firms operated in construction and other services, such as personal services, and repair and maintenance.
* In 2002, firms owned by people of Mexican origin accounted for more than 44 percent of all Hispanic-owned firms.
* Retail and wholesale trade accounted for 36 percent of Hispanic-owned business revenue.
* There were 29,184 Hispanic-owned firms with receipts of $1 million or more.
* There were 1,510 Hispanic-owned firms with 100 employees or more, generating more than $42 billion in gross receipts.
* States with the fastest rates of growth for Hispanic-owned firms between 1997 and 2002 included New York (57 percent), Rhode Island and Georgia (56 percent each),
Nevada and South Carolina (48 percent each).
* Counties with the highest number of Hispanic-owned firms were Los Angeles County, Calif. (188,472); Miami-Dade County, Fla. (163,188); Harris County, Texas (61,934); and Bronx County, N.Y. (38,325).

Here's the industries:

Tyler Cowen asks:

Have I mentioned that both the U.S. and Europe are, unwittingly, building new civilizations? Which one would you bet on?

Jonathan Last explains why our immigrants are better than Europe's:

So here's the good news: Having an immigration problem is a marker of being a successful, vibrant society. And if you have to have an immigration problem, ours is the one to have.
Just about half of our recent legal immigrants and about 80 percent of our illegals are from Mexico and the Southern Americas. Which means that they come from cultures that share the roots of Western liberalism: monogamy, pluralism, respect for women's legal rights, religious tolerance. The biggest obstacle to cultural acclimation is the language barrier.

That's not nothing, but, still, it could be much, much worse. Demographers note what are called channels of migrations, meaning that particular groups of people tend to migrate to particular destinations for an array of logistical, cultural and social reasons. America gets Hispanics. Europe gets Arab and African Muslims. According to Robert Leiken, the director of the Immigration and National Security Program at the Nixon Center, Muslims comprise "the bulk of immigrants in countries such as Belgium, France, the Netherlands and Spain." The numbers are comparable across the rest of Western Europe, too.

And unlike America's Hispanic immigrants, many Muslim immigrants in Europe have conflicted feelings about the underpinnings of Western liberalism. In France, there are car burnings and clashes about laïcité; in Holland, Islamist immigrants have been making death threats against politicians and public figures; in Denmark, Muslims are unhappy with the idea of a free press; in Sweden, where T-shirts proclaiming "2030--then we take over" have become popular with Muslim youths, authorities are struggling to deal with the rise of honor killings.

In America, we have fights over bilingual education.

While that's a bit of an oversimplification of America's very legitimate immigration problems, and while I am certainly not an "open borders" or "amnesty" kind of guy, the Latinotization of parts of America is far superior to and desireable than the Islamicization of much of Europe.

Part of it is the character of the immigrants. Part of it is the match between the immigrants and host cultures. Part of it is that the United States still, despite our growing entitlement/welfare state, has a superior system (political, economic, etc.). Our system encourages entrepreneurship. Our system encourages assimilation and integration. Our system encourages coexistence. Our system is superior to Europe's. And that's part of why our immigrants flourish here.

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Previous Trivia Tidbit: Record Tax Refunds.

Posted by Will Franklin · 23 March 2006 09:51 PM · Comments (5)

Social Security Reform Thursday: Week Fifty-One -- We Can Do Better.

That's why WILLisms.com offers a chart or graph, every Thursday, pertinent to Social Security reform.

This week's topic:

Social Security Is A Terrible Deal.

Social Security is an awful deal:

Taking the historical averages and applying them to an average individual, a dual-income family, and a low-income individual, Social Security is a bad deal any which way you look at it:

We can do better.

It's time for reform.

The clock is ticking:

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Previous Reform Thursday graphics can be seen here:

Tune into WILLisms.com each Thursday for more important graphical data supporting Social Security reform.

Posted by Will Franklin · 23 March 2006 02:58 PM · Comments (1)

The Eighth Mainstream Melee -- Challenging Orthodoxy.

It's a non-blog adventure.

The Times of London: "Très chic? Mais non! Contrary to popular belief, French women are not paragons of style"

Super Succinct Synopsis-

French women do not have it going on, it turns out.

Super Succinct Snippet-

This is the nation that invented style — or the nation with the good sense to bother claiming to have invented style. The English language hasn’t even got a word for chic. So the greatest marvel of all is why the nation as a whole exhibits so little of either.
The French love irony, but might not be amused by this instance because style, along with smoking and feeling pity for Americans, is at the core of their identity.

Every now and then, a fun French-bashing article is in order. The weirdness of French politics and economics is well-known, but striking at the heart of French pride (fashion) can be fun, too.

---------------------------

II.

The Economist: "De Villepin blinks"

Super Succinct Synopsis-

Dominique De Villepin, France's Prime Minister, is caving to ridiculous demands from ridiculous people.

Super Succinct Snippet-

The students’ principal grievance is the contrat première embauche, or first job contract, devised by Mr de Villepin for those under 26. It would let employers shed workers without formal justification, though with notice and some compensation, during their first two years on the job. After that, employees would be protected under the same terms as standard permanent job contracts. But it appears that Mr de Villepin is now willing to cut the trial period to just one year. If so, it remains to be seen whether the protesters will be assuaged, or indeed whether the reform is then worth pursuing at all.
Although the aim is to encourage job creation in a country with 9.6% unemployment, resistance has been intense. Polls suggest that most French voters are against the new contract. One published last week showed 68% of those asked opposed it, with only 27% in favour. For the left, it has become a potent way to mobilise anti-government feeling.

France is reaping what it has sowed over many years of state-sanctioned hostility to free enterprise. As demonstrated many times on WILLisms.com, the harder it is to fire someone, the less likely a company will hire someone. Meanwhile, productivity falls, average wages decline, overall standard of living declines, and GDP growth declines, when labor unions dictate employment laws.

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III.

The Washington Post: "Steele Might Sue Over Report"

Super Succinct Synopsis-

Not a frivolous lawsuit at all, African-American Republican and Maryland Senate Candidate Michael Steele may sue to find out just how vast the Democratic Party conspiracy to invade his privacy was. This is one bigtime scandal the collective establishment media don't seem to be all that interested in. I wonder why (actually, I don't).

Super Succinct Snippet-

An attorney for Michael S. Steele said yesterday that the lieutenant governor and Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate might file a lawsuit to learn more about an episode in which a Democratic researcher accessed his credit report.

Michael Steele, of course, is a rising star in the GOP. He has a very real shot at winning a seat now occupied by a left-wing Democrat. He also has a chance to lead a new generation of African-American Republicans to victory around the country.

For those reasons, as far as Democrats are concerned, he must be destroyed.

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IV.

ABC NEWS: "Iraq Archive Document Describes Bin Laden Meeting"

Super Succinct Synopsis-

If you declare that you believe there may have been a connection between Iraq and 9/11, however small, elites will treat you like a crazy right-wing ignoramus. The media/academic orthodoxy declaring no connection between Saddam Hussein and Usama bin Laden is actually what is absurd.

Super Succinct Snippet-

A newly released pre-war Iraqi document indicates that an official representative of Saddam Hussein's government met with Osama bin Laden in Sudan on February 19, 1995 after approval by Saddam Hussein. Bin Laden asked that Iraq broadcast the lectures of Suleiman al Ouda, a radical Saudi preacher, and suggested "carrying out joint operations against foreign forces" in Saudi Arabia.

No connection, eh? Oh, okay.

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WSJ's OpinionJournal.com: "Bush's Yard Sale: From PERC: It's time to get rid of National Forest junk land."

Super Succinct Synopsis-

The environmentalist orthodoxy will hate this, but it's the right thing to do.

Super Succinct Snippet-

The Bush administration proposed a novel idea recently: Sell off a tiny fraction of National Forest land to save money and raise funds for rural schools. Far from a revival of the Homestead Act signed up President Lincoln in 1862 and which distributed some 80 million federal acres over the following century, the idea is closer to holding a federal yard sale to clear out some of the junk that has accumulated over the years.
The National Forest Service controls some 192 million of the federal government's 600 million acres. What the president proposed in his budget this year was to sell off about one-tenth of one percent of that land--some300,000 acres that provides little benefit to the taxpayer but who nonetheless pays for its upkeep and maintenance.

It's one of those ideas that makes so much sense there's almost no way it'll happen.

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The previous Mainstream Melee.

WILLisms.com and many other blogs sometimes focus too much on our fellow bloggers, while excluding well-done professional journalism from our posts.

The Mainstream Melee is a quick survey of five non-blog sources, coming atchya at completely random intervals. The stories are either underreported, particularly well-written, interesting, or otherwise important to the big picture. But generally there will be a theme of some kind in the choices.

Posted by Will Franklin · 23 March 2006 11:57 AM · Comments (0)

Wednesday Caption Contest: Part 48.

This week's WILLisms.com Caption Contest photograph:

The actual caption:

U.S. President George W. Bush grabs a bell that was rung to mark his arrival in Cleveland, Ohio, March 20, 2006. (Jim Young/Reuters)

Surely there's a better caption for this photograph.

Entries will remain open until 11:59 PM, Central Standard Time, Tuesday, March 28. Submit your captions in the comments section, or email at WILLisms@gmail.com.

Last week's photo:

Winners from last week:

Hoodlumman:

*To get Bush's latest poll numbers, press 3* *To schedule a floor time for demogoguery, press 4* *To attempt a vote for censure, please hang up and dial 9-1-1*

antimedia:

Sen. Russell Feingold accepts a congratulatory phone call from the President shortly after announcing the introduction of a Senate resolution to censure the President.

John Roper (via email):

Look mom, I'm telling you, I'm making a killing on AMWAY. All you have to do is sign up a couple of friends and you're in!

Honorable Mention #1

DAVE (via email):

"Ah yeah, could you excuse me just one second Mr. Bin Laden? Hey George, get off the line I'm talking with a friend."

Honorable Mention #2

Zsa Zsa:

Can you hear me now? Can you hear me now? Can you hear me now...?

Honorable Mention #3

Rodney Dill:

"I've won a free hunting trip with the Vice President? No I... Uh, is this you Mr. President?"

Captioning is America's pastime.

Enter today!

Posted by Will Franklin · 22 March 2006 11:52 AM · Comments (25)

Trivia Tidbit Of The Day: Part 304 -- Record Tax Refunds.

Taxes-

Americans are getting more tax refunds than ever:

I blame Bush:

The child tax credit, which rose from $500 to $1,000 per child in 2001, is the biggest reason for a jump in excessive withholding. More than 25 million tax returns claim this credit, worth $55 billion in 2005.
Tax credits are available for a dozen purposes, including college education, adoption assistance and child care expenses. The portion of returns claiming at least one credit rose from 13% in 1995 to 31% in 2003. Credits reduce the tax owed dollar for dollar.

It's all those tax cuts for the rich:

Overwithholding has grown fastest among families earning $50,000 or less a year because they benefit most from tax credits.

Incidentally, if folks withheld a little less, they could put those dollars to much better use over the course of a year (in retirement, in a Health Savings Account, or even in a simple bond). However, many people use their tax refunds as "magic money" to help cover this, that, or the other.

Actually, if anything is to blame, it's the lack of a flatter, simpler, lower tax code.

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Previous Trivia Tidbit: OJ Trial > Saddam Trial.

Posted by Will Franklin · 22 March 2006 08:22 AM · Comments (0)

Trivia Tidbit Of The Day: Part 303 -- The Saddam Trial.

The Trial Of The Century-

Priorities and biases. We all have them. Bloggers have them. WILLisms.com covered (and still covers) the Social Security issue more than most. This blog addresses substantially less of the gossipy rumor-mongering in which average blogs engage. The establishment media journalists and producers, obviously, have their own priorities and biases.

Take coverage of the two "Trials of the Century."

OJ Simpson.
Saddam Hussein.

Both are entertaining, engaging trials, with well-known defendants.

The comparison seems to end there, however, as far as the big TV networks are concerned. The OJ Simpson trial garnered far more coverage (over a 6-month period) than the Saddam Hussein trial has garnered (over a 5-month period). Far, far, far more (.pdf):

And even when the Saddam trial has received coverage from ABC, CBS, and NBC, the focus has been in the wrong place (.pdf):

Our television media outlets have become tabloid trash. If it isn't OJ, it's Scott Peterson or Natalie Holloway or Robert Blake.

And if they finally reach into the real news bag and show something about a tyrant like Saddam Hussein, it's usually just an out-of-context look at some trivial detail completely irrelevant to the big picture.

Source:
MRC (.pdf).

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Previous Trivia Tidbit: Midterm Elections Bad For Sitting Presidents.

Posted by Will Franklin · 21 March 2006 09:44 AM · Comments (0)

Trivia Tidbit Of The Day: Part 302 -- Congressional Republicans Distancing Themselves From Party Base.

Asserting Independence, But From Whom?-

Historically, even popular, successful U.S. Presidents have lost substantial numbers of Congressional allies during midterm elections:

And members of Congress understand this. So they try to distance themselves from sitting Presidents, even popular ones.

It makes sense as a strategy, if your primary goal is to get reelected.

Meanwhile, some in Congress are actively, if unofficially, campaigning for the presidency.

So, this being the midterm year of President Bush's second and final term, you have various members of the GOP asserting their independence on all sorts of issues in an attempt to cover their behinds at the polls this November.

But many of these folks are entirely oblivious to the fact that, in the process of distancing themselves from President Bush, they are really just distancing themselves from the Republican base.

And they are also forgetting recent history and ignoring overriding trends. In 2002, Republicans added 8 seats in the House; in 2004, Republicans added 3 more. Shifts today are small, because the number of competitive districts is small.

At the same time, with the power of incumbency as great as it as ever been, just 24 House members have announced plans to step aside (the smallest number since 1966). 24 open seats means the turnover in Congress will be slim this year.

And Bush is still popular where Bush was popular to begin with (in Bush Country). Anecdotally, pro-Bush Democrat Henry Cuellar beat back far-left Ciro Rodriguez in the Texas District 28 primary race just last week. District 28, a heavily Latino district, is a safe seat for Congressional Democrats. But it also went for Bush in 2004. Cuellar's closeness with President Bush was not a liability with primary voters in District 28, as Cuellar extended his victory from the last go-around.

Had Cuellar lost, it would have been heralded as a harbinger of November's looming Bush-backlash. Since he won, not a peep from the national media.

Unfortunately, in trying to beat the "6 Year Itch," some history-conscious Congressional Republicans are alienating not President Bush but Republican voters themselves.

It's almost as if some GOP members of Congress are doing their best, unknowingly, to produce the exact results they are trying their level best to prevent, knowingly.

-------------------------------------

Previous Trivia Tidbit: A Conservative Future.

Posted by Will Franklin · 20 March 2006 11:15 AM · Comments (2)

Quotational Therapy: Part 83 -- President Bush, On Not FearingThe Future.

Low Approval Rating, Low Aschmoval Rating: Bush Is Awesome-

I remember clearly in 2003 when a Democrat leader attacked our economic growth plan and said of the tax relief, it is "reckless and irresponsible," it's a "reckless and irresponsible tax plan that will undermine opportunity in our country." Today, the United States economy is strong and it's getting stronger. We grew last year at 3.5 percent, faster than any major industrialized nation. We added 243,000 jobs in February, almost 5 million jobs in the last two-and-a-half years. The unemployment rate across the United States is 4.8 percent -- that's lower than the average rate of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s. Real after-tax income is up for working people.
Productivity is high in America. Home ownership are at all-time levels; more minorities own a home today in America than ever before in our nation's history. The economic recovery plan that we passed works.

Today, many Democrats want the tax relief we passed to expire in a few years. Some even want to repeal it now. If the tax relief is not made permanent, the American people will get a mighty tax increase they do not want and they do not deserve. In order to make sure this economy of ours remains strong, we need to make the tax relief permanent.

....

We believe we should not fear the future, but we should shape the future. We believe we ought to put policies in place to make sure that America remains the economic leader of the world. And one way to do that is to make sure we have an economy which is flexible, where regulations are low, as are taxes. And one way to make sure this economy of ours remains strong and vibrant is to continue to work for meaningful, real tort reform.

....

We don't fear the future, we welcome it.

Read the entire speech here.

-----------------------------

Previous Quotational Therapy Session:

Arlen Specter.

The right quote can be therapeutic, so tune in to WILLisms.com for quotational therapy on Monday and Friday.

Posted by Will Franklin · 20 March 2006 10:52 AM · Comments (0)

Big Frickin' Engines!

Well, if the federal government is going to spend billions on a project, at least make it frickin' big:

Via Wikipedia, regarding this image, Werner von Braun Standing by Five F-1 Engines:

This is a featured picture, which means that community consensus has identified it as one of the finest images on Wikipedia, adding significantly to its accompanying article."

Heh, this reminds me of the Tom Lehrer song:	"Once zey go up, who cares where zey come down?
	Zat's not my department!" says Werner von Braun.

Posted by Ken McCracken · 20 March 2006 02:01 AM · Comments (6)

Sunday Night Heidi Franklin Weimaraner Puppy Update - 10½ Weeks Old.

Heidi was particularly perturbed by this week's negatory vote on Senator DeMint's Social Security reform resolution. She was so upset, she even cried about it.

Try explaining your nay votes, Senators, to that face.

TRY IT!

I dare you.

--------------------------------------------------

Last week's update.

Posted by Will Franklin · 19 March 2006 08:49 PM · Comments (2)

Pundit Roundtable

Good afternoon all! Welcome back to PUNDIT ROUNDTABLE, our weekly gathering of bright lights, here to inform you and entertain you. I am your host, Ken McCracken. Here are our topics for this week:

Topic 1: Yesterday was the third anniversary of the invasion of Iraq. Is the U.S. on the right trajectory for success in Iraq, or not? Are we witnessing a civil war unfolding in Iraq? Should the troops come home yet?

Topic 2: Give us the name of one movie our readers should watch.

I'd like to welcome back returning guest Jim Hoft, the Gateway Pundit. Let's hear what you have to say Jim . . .

Yes, Iraq is on the right trajectory... not according to the Left but in historical terms Iraq is on the right path. This next month will be crucial as Iraq looks at forming a government. But, it looks like Iraq made it through a very difficult time since the tragic bombing of the Golden Mosque. Anyway, you got me thinking of these last three years and I put togehter a list of a few of their failed predictions from the Left during this difficult period, including:

*German politicians predicted: "Millions of people in Baghdad will be victims of bombs and rockets."
What happened: The antiwar Iraqi Body Count site lists an estimated 4,000-6,000 civilians and fighters lost in the startup months of the War in Iraq.

*Ted Kennedy predicted:"A war on Saddam might also cause an unprecedented humanitarian crisis with an estimated 900,000 refugees, a pandemic and an environmental disaster as Saddam lit the oilfields on fire."
Actual Result: The oil fields were not set ablaze, no pandemic.

* Ted Kennedy also predicted: "The U.S. could run through "battalions a day at a time" and that the fighting would look like "the last fifteen minutes of 'Private Ryan.'"

Actual Results: Although each hero lost in this war is tragic, this is still one of America's most successful military campaigns ever.

* Medact Global Health: "A more contained conflict could cause half a million deaths and have a devastating impact on the lives, health and environment of the combatants, Iraqi civilians, and people in neighbouring countries and beyond."
Actual Results: Antiwar Iraqi Body Count says that 35-37 thousand deaths including bank robbers.

* Hans Blix argued: The Iraqis were better off before the war.

The harsh truth: Before the War in Iraq, Saddam was filling his mass graves and keeping state hired rapists on his payroll. In those 20 years about 5% of the people of Iraq were killed or mysteriously disappeared. The red area in the graph above shows the estimated average deaths in Iraq under Saddam Hussein from 36 average deaths per day from mass grave discoveries, to 137 deaths per day from a different source. The yellow area shows estimated total fatalities since the beginning of the War in Iraq from Iraq Body Count, an antiwar website.

* The UN predicted... It is also likely that in the early stages there will be a large segment of the population requiring treatment for traumatic injuries, either directly conflict-induced or from the resulting devastation. Given the population outlined earlier, as many as 500,000 could require treatment to a greater or lesser degree as a result of direct or indirect injuries.
What happened: Again, the antiwar Iraqi Body Count site lists an estimated 4,000-6,000 civilians and fighters lost in the startup months of the War in Iraq.
* John Kerry insisted... "There are no-go zones in Iraq today (September 2004). You can't hold an election in a no-go zone."
Results: Iraq held a very successful democratic election in January 2005.

* Jimmy Carter predicted... "The Carter Center did, our 52nd election. All of our elections have been in troubled countries where the outcome was doubtful. But in every case there has to be a central government that can set up the constitution and bylaws and rules so that an election can be held peacefully. I don't see that happening as long as the terrible violence continues in Iraq."
About those election results: Former President Jimmy Carter, who predicted that elections in Iraq would fail and in the past year described the Bush administration's policy there as a quagmire, this week ended 10 days of silence to declare the historic Iraqi vote "a very successful effort." (February 11, 2005)

* Madeleine Albright observed... "It has long been obvious that the Bush administration lacks a viable plan for success in Iraq. The hardest political job — drafting a constitution acceptable to all factions — has not even begun..."
Results: Iraqi Constitution drafted and accepted by 78% of the voters.

* Madeleine Albright accused... The "coalition," never robust, is shrinking.
Reality: The Iraqi Allied Coalition consists of 30 nations. The Afghanistan Coalition consists of 35 nations.
Bulgaria announced that it will be sending troops back to Iraq. (February 24, 2006)

* John Murtha exaggerated... "Many say that the Army is broken. (Murtha did later, actually!) Some of our troops are on their third deployment. Recruitment is down, even as our military has lowered its standards."
Reality: The Army Guard is surpassing its goals and growing in strength despite Rep. Murtha's campaign against military recruitment.

You could certainly add much more to this list, but it shows is how difficult it has been to fight a war in Iraq and one back here against the savage Left. The Administration has certainly had its hands full! There is certainly not a Civil War going on in Iraq today. And, let's hope we can start bringing home some of the troops soon. We are all for that.

As we remember the start of this war I just want to add, God bless our troops in harm's way today. God bless our country, our leaders, and the people of Iraq.

Oh, ... Walk the Line was good."

Man, I love link-intensive responses, and Jim as usual certainly did his homework. His response is also posted as Three Years of Dragging Democrats Through Their Iraqi Quagmire at his blog.

Our next guest is returning pundit Eric Lindholm, alias the VikingPundit, with his take. Welcome back Eric, what do you think?

"Topic 1: I object to the idea that Iraq is heading towards – or is already engaged in – civil war. The Shiites don’t want it because as the majority faction in Iraq they can wield power through democracy in the Shia-dominant government. By the same coin, the Sunnis shouldn’t invite sectarian violence because the Shiites could overrun them. And the Kurds just want to be left alone.

The difficulty for the U.S. position is that Americans are getting increasingly impatient with the pace of transition. My feeling is that it’s time to throw this baby out of the nest and see if it will fly. The United States has now sacrificed over 2,000 troops and billions of dollars trying to set up a democratic state in the heart of the Middle East. It’s time we know the answer to the question of whether freedom and moderation can take root or whether Islam is incompatible with democracy.

Topic 2: There’s only one movie that accurately represents the everyday drudgery for millions of Americans: 'Office Space'."

Next we have second-time guest Mark Coffey of Decision '08 (Because It's Never Too Early!). Mark, whaddya say?

"The troops should not come home yet; it is not only undesirable, but impossible. There may be room for a limited drawdown (politically, it would be nice to have something to announce before the November elections), but General Abizaid needs to make that determination, with the success of the mission and the safety of the troops the paramount concerns. However, we simply cannot afford a pullout at this time; the stakes are as high as ever, and the signs are more encouraging than they have been in a while.

That may sound paradoxical, given the spate of bad news lately, and indeed, even a diehard supporter of the war such as I finds myself more and more frequently depressed and disheartened. The signs of hope are tangible, however: (1) We are succeeding in the ‘Iraqification’ of the armed forces. More and more Iraqi troops are capable of fighting at a competent level. This not only lowers the ‘American occupation’ profile, but it sets the stage for the day when real, substantive withdrawals can occur.

(2) The Sunnis are drawing a clear distinction between ‘rejectionists’ and terrorists, and making the latter more and more unwelcome. There is always hope for bringing in former Baathists and other disillusioned Sunni parties into the emerging political system; there is no hope for anything constructive with the terrorists. They must be rooted out and eliminated, and the Sunnis are increasingly taking on that task themselves.

(3) The prospects of a civil war have actually decreased since the bombing of the shrine. The Iraqi people went to the brink, peered into the abyss, and said that’s a place they don’t want to go. What we are seeing is a power struggle, to be sure, and oil wealth complicates it, but there are ways to clamp down on the violence and move forward constructively.

First, reconstruction is woefully inadequate, too much money is wasted, and too little benefit is seen. I’ve advocated elsewhere for a ‘reconstruction czar’ of considerable stature to be appointed to gain control of the spending and introduce accountability for the results.

Second, the battle at home is actually more precarious than the battle in the field. The court of public opinion has a better chance of killing our success than anything on the battlefield. We have the ablity to stay in Iraq for years and wear down the enemy, but we don’t have the political support we need. The Bush administration has faced numerous challenges in staying on message, but they must do better. A staff shakeup in the White House would be helpful, and a full-court press on selling the war must be unending.

Third, we must deal with Iran and Syria harshly and cut out the foreign support for the chaos. It’s high past time that we deliver ultimatums to these two countries, up to and including air strikes, if they don’t cease and desist their financial support, their refuge for terrorists, and their provision