The Babe Theory Of Political Movements.
Mar. 21, 2005 11:50 AM
Iran's Sham Election In Houston.
June 20, 2005 5:36 AM
Yes, Kanye, Bush Does Care.
Oct. 31, 2005 12:41 AM
Health Care vs. Wealth Care.
Nov. 23, 2005 3:28 PM
Americans Voting With Their Feet.
Nov. 30, 2005 1:33 PM
Idea Majorities Matter.
May 12, 2006 6:15 PM
Twilight Zone Economics.
Oct. 17, 2006 12:30 AM
The "Shrinking" Middle Class.
Dec. 13, 2006 1:01 PM
From Ashes, GOP Opportunities.
Dec. 18, 2006 6:37 PM
Battle Between Entitlements & Pork.
Dec. 21, 2006 12:31 PM
Let Economic Freedom Reign.
Dec. 22, 2006 10:22 PM
Biggest Health Care Moment In Decades.
July 25, 2007 4:32 PM
Unions Antithetical to Liberty.
May 28, 2008 11:12 PM
Right To Work States Rock.
June 9, 2008 12:25 PM
Social Security Reform Thursday.
March 13, 2008
Caption Contest: Enter Today!
Due: July 29, 2008
The Carnival Of Classiness.
Mar. 14, 2006
Quotational Therapy: Obama.
Apr. 4, 2008
Mainstream Melee: Wolfowitz.
May 19, 2007
Pundit Roundtable: Leaks.
July 9, 2006
A WILLisms.com(ic), by Ken McCracken
July 14, 2006
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America's Drastic Demographic Changes: November 2004 & May 2006.
Since 2004, the demographics of the American electorate have changed more dramatically than in any point in our nation's history.
Yes, over the course of 18 months, we've seen the following changes (.pdf):
1. There are 13% more Democrats and 4% more Republicans today than in 2004.
Because, after all, Howard Dean and Nancy Pelosi are such great sales(wo)men for their party. And we know that the Democratic Party's ratings have not fallen at all in recent months.
Dang. Score one for the secular humanists. I don't know how those guys did it, but they successfully turned off 25-30 million Americans from religion in just 18 months. And here I thought God was alive and well in America. Stupid me.
Apparently, young people today are more excited about voting than they have ever been, ever. Way to be engaged in the civic process, young people! Rad!
Additionally, in 2004, 24% of voters were 60 and older. Today, 14% are 65 and older. I guess the lack of medical advancements and rising death rate took the lives of a lot more grandparents than anyone realized over the past year and a half.
Because, as we know, over the past 18 months, there has been a mass exodus of folks, ~15 million souls, from the podunk boondocks to the glorious, vibrant cities, such as New York, Philadelphia, Chicago, and Los Angeles!
Who knew that so many white folks were moving to other countries, dying at abnormally high rates, and not having any kids at all between 18 and 19.5 years ago, to the tune of 20-25 million lost white people, in just 18 months?
Meanwhile, who knew that we now have ~15 million more American citizens of Hispanic origin than we did in November 2004?
Not only are ~9 million more Americans not married, ~12 million additional Americans who were married just 18 months ago are now not married.
Bummer for marriage fans.
Major bummer. I guess education has gone down the tubes in the past 18 months, as well.
And, if you believe all of that, or even just some of it, that the American electorate really has changed so drastically in just a year and a half, I have some oceanfront property in North Dakota and a 33% presidential approval rating I want to sell you.
After all, we know that:
1. The Democratic Party's ratings are nearly as terrible as the GOP's ratings, even under demographically-challenged polls. While the Democrats' kamikaze-style politics have worked in harming the GOP, their own ratings have-- not surprisingly-- also plummeted.
While the Medicare Prescription Drug benefit is controversial, and indeed reviled by many conservatives, elderly Americans (who are living longer than ever) seem to like it just fine. Why would elderly folks, who vote religiously (usually for Republicans), not vote this time around? It makes no sense.
Give me a break.
Bottom line, there have not been any drastic demographic shifts in the American electorate over the past 18 months, thus drastic shifts in survey respondent demographics delegitimize polls. They are just plain bunk. Bunk.
In short, these polls, no matter how much they reflect the genuine discontent in the country (and such discontent does indeed exist), are complete and utter rubbish. Start adjusting the demographics to their proper levels, and you'll start seeing President Bush's approval ratings within striking distance-- still below, but in striking distance-- of where they were in November of 2004.
Much more on this phenomenon at Ankle Biting Pundits blog.
UPDATE: More on the latest rigged poll.
Posted by Will Franklin · 9 May 2006 01:23 PM
Are you saying there are lies, damned lies, and statistics??
Posted by: Ken McCracken at May 9, 2006 04:49 PM
Any poll that doesn't use relevant demographic numbers is worse than worthless. It eventually creates a self-fulfilling prophesy, a bandwagon effect, and people start wanting to be with the in crowd.
Posted by: Will Franklin at May 9, 2006 05:16 PM
whew, scared me!
Posted by: christian at May 10, 2006 09:02 AM
People claim that they are dissatisfied with the economy and Congress because they are disenchanted with Bush. If Bush is even partially responsible for anything, it cannot be good. No Child Left Behind is bad. The economy is bad. War=bad. If Bush cured cancer, world hunger, and got Isreal and Palestine to hug one another, the cure for cancer would make drug companies money, the food we served the world would have too much salt, and the embrace would have forgotten Iran.
So under sample middle-class, oversample minorities, and play demographic games. And wonder why your polls showing Kerry ahead in Ohio and winning the election were invalid. The problem is not the polls, it is that the MSM and the Democrats are believing them, despite these flaws.
Posted by: Justin B at May 10, 2006 03:22 PM