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What Does A NoKo Nuclear Test Mean?

Most likely this is bluster:

SEOUL, South Korea -- North Korea triggered global alarm on Tuesday by saying it will conduct a nuclear test, a key step in the manufacture of atomic bombs that it views as a deterrent against any U.S. attack. But the North also said it was committed to nuclear disarmament, suggesting a willingness to negotiate.

There have been several false alarms about North Korean nuclear tests over the past two years, and at the moment there are none of the telltale signs that a test is imminent. U.S. satellites can very easily spot the test preparations necessary for a test, such as the excavation and filling of a test tunnel, with cables trailing out. Nuclear testing, even underground nuclear testing, is a very tricky situation for a country as small as North Korea. GlobalSecurity.org quotes analyst Satoshi Morimoto:

" ... carrying out nuclear tests inside North Korea would be an extremely sticky action. That is because this kind of nuclear testing could only be carried out underground. There is absolutely no way they could do in the air or above ground. Even with underground nuclear testing, you normally need a fifty to sixty kilometer square of desert for a nuclear test. In the U.S., this would be something like the Nevada desert. Unless you have the kind they have in India or Pakistan, you cannot do it. The reason for this is that the underground water system gets damaged. North Korea has a very abundant flow of underground water, and if you carry out an underground nuclear test in this kind of place, radioactive materials would get into the water supply for the whole of the Korean peninsula, and also flow out into the Sea of Japan. As a consequence, if there were any underground nuclear testing in the Korean peninsula, it would not be just the ecological system, but also the topography of the land that would be damaged. So, will they indeed carry out tests? I think they might somehow manage to borrow the Pakistani desert, or else carry out tests in another country.

Moreover, North Korea only has one shot at this: once they have actually tested a weapon, they have lost whatever diplomatic leverage the threat of a test poses, and it will shift the entire paradigm of negotiations into completely new and unpredictable ways.

North Korea risks alienating their all-important neighbor China, and could push Beijing even further towards strong relations with the West. Diplomatic relations between China and the U.S. have warmed of late, and China seems to be realizing that taking a harder line with Iran is earning them big points on the international stage. Taking a more proactive stance is giving them a certain respect they had not enjoyed before. A North Korean nuclear test right now would be quite stupid, especially considering the already shaky nature of the regime there, and the inevitable sanctions that would follow a test. Read this outstanding article if you want to more fully understand the absolutely dire straits Kim Jong-Il's regime faces right now.

The proper way for the North Koreans to game this is to threaten a test, win concessions by then pledging not to test, go on to further pledge to unbuild its nuclear weapons program and win more goodies, and then allow limited inspections. Then, kick out the inspectors, begin plutonium production again, and threaten another test. Wash, rinse, repeat.

Posted by Ken McCracken · 3 October 2006 07:42 PM

Comments

Posted by: massyandra at October 4, 2006 01:59 AM

Posted by: mrsizer at October 5, 2006 10:26 PM

Posted by: Greg at October 10, 2006 11:07 AM