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Willisms

« Blogging Blahs, And Barney Frank Needs To Resign | WILLisms.com | Sunday Night Heidi Weimaraner Update: One Year Old. »

Is 'The Surge' A Bad Idea?

Okay okay, so I don't always need outrage to be motivated to blog.

I guess another reason to blog is when you want to pose a question and see what reaction you get. See, I am not convinced that The Surge is such a good idea. Maybe I can be convinced that it is a good idea however, and I hope someone out there will make the case.

Here is my case against it: the war we are fighting in Iraq is not a set-piece battle where we simply outmuscle the enemy. It seems that the plan behind The Surge is nothing more than throwing more troops at the problem, as if that is the only strategy we are capable of. Naturally, however, President Bush is quiet about exactly how the troops would be used.

I think the historical examples of other nascent civil wars around the globe shows that this war is a marathon and not a sprint - and that it will be won by outlasting the enemy rather than thrashing him in three months or however long The Surge is supposed to last. How long did the Malayan Emergency last? "Only the British would call something that lasted 11 years an Emergency," went the joke, and I think it answers the question. Or to cite another example, how long did the Salvadoran Civil War last?

Moreover, don't you think the terrorists see The Surge coming by now?

The downside of The Surge if it fails is huge. President Bush is being goaded into throwing one last hail mary, and if he doesn't connect, the game is over and everyone goes home, it appears. So, we must have victory according to Congress's dictates within a very narrow timeframe instead of according to military necessity, and we will have lost a very winnable game.

But it isn't a game, is it. And game-winning plays are not what is called for here. Am I right or wrong?

Posted by Ken McCracken · 6 January 2007 07:04 PM

Comments

The "surge" in Iraq isn't a surge, instead might
provide a buzzword media cover for mobilizing an elite force of 40,000 troops to frontline bases, coordinating an Israeli aerial bunker-buster bomb attack on Iranian nuclear research facilities.

http://www.alaskareport.com/reu77152.htm

Then follows a classic pincer movement, as enraged Iranians pour over the border to jihad against the Crusaders in Baghdad, the Surge40K slaughter them.
Theory's been blowing around awhile. Back story:
http://cns.miis.edu/pubs/week/040812.htm

If you look big picture, Bush needs a Hail Mary.
The fact that Iraq is controlled airspace, one Israeli's can't penetrate without Bush approval will go unreported, and then plausibly denied.
"It was just a coincidence that US had surged."

The rumors that low-yield nuclear weapons had already been used in 2004 will continue to be denied with Iran. "It was the "illegal" Iranian nuclear material, blown up by conventional bombs."

Del.icio.us!

Posted by: Deli Cious at January 7, 2007 12:27 AM

Of course, any guesses as to the strategy are just that - guesses. However, it seems to me that this move is probably an attempt to bring additional pressure on Iran, timed to coincide with leaks of a possible military strike.

It has to be getting pretty scary to live in Iran right about now.

Posted by: JohnJ at January 7, 2007 07:23 PM

Do you see the thoughtline that the creation of the Surge assumes? To wit: The War on Terror is being lost, and before we give up on it completely, we should try this "Surge" thing, whatever it is... and if we don't have Victory in 30 days, we can wipe away this illusion that we haven't already lost and bring our boys home."

This is why I dislike the whole idea of the "Surge" as it is being tossed around by the talking heads. Now, I haven't watched every program and every talking head, but has anybody said "The War on Terror is succeeding, and a Surge will make that Success more apparent, even to CNN"? Or "The War on Terror is succeeding, but in order to ensure it's success we need to "Surge" our troop levels in order to remove this temporary and unusual threat." Is this being used to promote the idea by it's originators, or just as a fallback by the supporters of the War on Terror in the key of "Well, maybe this will help after all... and at least we have the support of Congress for something."

Because unless the US has a clear USE for multiple thousands of new bodies over there, the only purpose of a "Surge" would be to make a case against the War on Terror.

Posted by: Mr. Michael at January 7, 2007 08:59 PM

Just to point out, they had a surge at Faluja it's quieted down since then. Still, I'll wait for wednesday's plan and then get back to you on the idea.

Either way I like it better than the "talk to Iran and Syria" option that was tossed out there.

Posted by: Rob B. at January 8, 2007 03:00 PM

I agree with Lt colonel North: more troops = more targets

Posted by: lester at January 8, 2007 03:26 PM

Hellonkm - this is just a testing, don't worry about it

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