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« Why We Are Winning In Afghanistan | WILLisms.com | Behold The Future Of Warfare »

North Korean Nuclear Shutdown Is For Real

The North Koreans have shut down their sole nuclear reactor, located at Yongbyon. International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohamed ElBaradei stated today that "our inspectors are there. They verified the shutting down of the reactor yesterday." The 10-person team of inspectors will work for several days applying IAEA seals as the nuclear equipment cools off. The North Koreans are 3 months late in implementing their end of the Denuclearization Action Plan. According to that plan, the nuclear shutdown was to have begun within 60 days of the agreement's date.

The crux of the February 13, 2007 agreement among the six-party members is as follows:

IV. During the period of the Initial Actions phase and the next phase - which includes provision by the DPRK of a complete declaration of all nuclear programs and disablement of all existing nuclear facilities, including graphite-moderated reactors and reprocessing plant - economic, energy and humanitarian assistance up to the equivalent of 1 million tons of heavy fuel oil (HFO), including the initial shipment equivalent to 50,000 tons of HFO, will be provided to the DPRK.

North Korea is required to account for all nuclear weapons, programs and nuclear materials, leading to the eventual de-nuclearization of the entire Korean peninsula. In return, North Korea gets fuel, humanitarian assistance, and steps towards full diplomatic recognition and normalization with the U.S. - including removing NoKo from the terms of the Trading With The Enemy Act and removing them from the list of states sponsoring terrorism.

Hill.jpg
Christopher R. Hill

On paper, this is an astounding and world-historic diplomatic victory for the Bush administration, and especially for its chief architect, the indefatigable Christopher Hill. Will this turn out to be a Neville Chamberlain-esque appeasment deal gone awry? It could very well be: North Korea has a history of regarding such deals as merely printed words without meaning. They violated the terms of the much-ballyhooed 1994 Agreed Framework before the ink was even dry. North Korea was a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which they also egregiously violated. In short, a North Korean signature on an agreement means exactly nothing. Yet North Korea is in desperate straits, with no fuel, little help from China, and no friends anywhere in the world. Perhaps Kim Jong-Il really does savor normalization and trade with the rest of the world. It is a very encouraging sign.

There are lingering problems with this deal however, the least of which is the fact that we have essentially bribed North Korea to shut down its program with no guarantee it will actually happen. Another huge concern that National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley raises is the fact that intelligence shows a covert uranium-enrichment program that does not rely on the Yongbyon facility.

Also, North Korea is demanding that it be removed from the list of nations that sponsor terrorism, even though North Korea sponsors terrorism:

North Korea has a long history of sponsoring terror and other international provocations. In November 1987 North Korea bombed a (South) Korean Airline Boeing 707 in mid-flight, killing 115 people. In 1983 a bomb detonated in Rangoon, Myanmar, minutes before South Korea’s president was to lay a wreath there. The bomb killed 17 senior South Korean officials and wounded 14 others. There have been innumerable bloody incursions into South Korea by North Korean forces, and many attacks and attempted attacks on both South Koreans traveling abroad and North Korean defectors. Lower-level violence is almost constant. Reportedly, graduating from North Korean Special Forces training requires successfully entering South Korea and committing an act of vandalism. (Since the Special Forces are one of the only segments of North Korean society that eats enough, candidates have great incentive to succeed.)

It seems that perhaps we are bending some of our principles here in order to get this deal done, by 'rewarding' North Korea with goodies to do many things they already agreed to do. Aren't we training them like a dog that the way to get the things they want is to piss on the linoleum? Turning a blind eye to their past misdeeds, and pretending they do not sponsor terrorism likewise shows that our ideals are fungible.

My fear is that we will once again be left holding an empty bag, with egg on our face and our ethics compromised. If the deal works however - it may be a tiny price to pay.

Posted by Ken McCracken · 16 July 2007 02:40 AM

Comments

Let's face it: this deal is identical to the 1994 agreement President Clinton worked out with No Korea.

Identical.

You remember the one; the same plan Young Master Bush criticized as unworkable.

Posted by: Jadegold at July 16, 2007 07:39 AM

Could it be? A communist country actually keeping their treaty obligations?!? Please excuse me while I recover from the shock.

Posted by: Bigfoot at July 16, 2007 08:18 AM

Once a sucker , always a sucker.
The civilized west never learns. After North Korea recovers from its financial and material quandry they will restart their nuclear program.
The better questions are, why do we fail to recognize such hucksterism ? Do we enjoy being fooled by a petty dictator ? Are their Chinese puppetmasters really that superior to our western negotiators?
Of course. We believe that diplomacy can solve or defuse problems with rogue states. While they believe diplomacy is an arrangement that furthers their objectives.
Given the track record of diplomacys efectiveness it would be wise not to bet on the successful outcome of this ill advised venture.

Posted by: william jonas at July 16, 2007 09:18 AM

My understanding is that the NorKs are discarding this reactor as it is obsolete given their inability to get fuel to process and the fact that they have already gotten the enriched uranium they need from the reactor.

So the NorKs gave up scrap... and got cash and concessions.

Posted by: DANEgerus at July 16, 2007 09:24 AM

I have no knowledge of the treaty and have the same hopes and suspicions that Ken does.

I did, however, know that jadegold would again think himself clever by using the phrase "young master Bush" and make an exaggerated claim.

The presence of inpectors is itself a small but good thing.

Posted by: Assistant Village Idiot at July 16, 2007 11:13 AM

AVI once more resorts to his Michael Chertoff-style method of reasoning: he has no knowledge but trusts in some gut level instinct. No wonder Las Vegas makes a fortune.

Young Master Bush has once more demonstrated mediocrity is about the best one can expect him. After all, this No Korean treaty is exactly where President Clinton had us over six years ago.

With a not trivial exception: now No Korea has several nuclear warheads whereas President Clinton kept No Korea's nuclear arsenal at zero.

Heckuva job, Young Master Bush!

Posted by: Jadegold at July 16, 2007 12:11 PM

Wrong Jadegold, as usual.

Noko had an estimated 6 to 12 nuclear warheads during the Clinton years, and developed the means to deliver them on Clinton's watch.

This deal is significantly different than the 1994 Agreed Framework. We are not giving the Norks a lightwater reactor, for one thing. It is also a far more comprehensive diplomatic package as well, eventually leading to full diplomatic recognition and an end to the Korean war.

Not to mention, the deal is somehow going to have to account for the uranium enrichment program that popped up on Clinton's watch that he did nothing about.

I have little faith that this deal will hold, but it is a much different agreement than the 1994 deal.

Run along now, young master Jadegold, you have been schooled for the day.

Posted by: Ken McCracken at July 16, 2007 12:32 PM

Noko had an estimated 6 to 12 nuclear warheads during the Clinton years, and developed the means to deliver them on Clinton's watch.

Gosh, Ken, does this mean Young Master Bush's Secretary of State was lying?

Assistant Secretary of State for Intelligence and Research Thomas Fingar offered a more cautious assessment of Pyongyang’s nuclear capabilities in a Feb. 16 statement to the same panel. There is “no evidence” that North Korea has produced nuclear weapons or “mated them to a missile capable of delivering them to the United States,” he stated.

As it turns out, the Clinton administration thought North Korea had produced enough plutonium to make 1 or 2 bombs. But this belief was wrong. North Korea was cheating on uranium refinement but not plutonium refinement--the key to making nukes.

When Young Master Bush pulled out of the Agreed Framework (despite Colin Powell)--North Korea was free to refine plutonium and create nukes.

We are not giving the Norks a lightwater reactor, for one thing.

Big deal. You don't understand the significance of a light water reactor, do you? I'm betting you think reactor=nuclear bomb.

The beuaty of a light water reactor is that it is exceedingly difficult to extract plutonium. Most experts agree that the US will likely accede to No Korean demands for this reactor in order to gain further concessions.


Posted by: Jadegold at July 16, 2007 01:41 PM

No Jadegold, I am not saying that lightwater reactors = nukes.

I am simply pointing out that you are wrong when you say this is the same deal as 1994.

Posted by: Ken McCracken at July 16, 2007 02:01 PM

I have decided that the Young Master Bush routine is just so unutterably childish that I can't take its use seriously. I've brought up enough teenagers to be fairly alert to someone keeping up a debate just to call names. No one need be addressed who resorts to such.

Posted by: Assistant Village Idiot at July 16, 2007 02:43 PM

Ken: Riiiight. And it's different because the years are different, too. And LeBron James is now in the NBA.

Got it.

Posted by: Jadegold at July 16, 2007 02:53 PM

Hey, I am a LeBron James fan.

He's no Michael Jordan though.

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