WILLisms.com: Pundit Predictions Gone Horribly Wrong

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Pundit Predictions Gone Horribly Wrong

Er, yeah, whatever.

I predicted that an impending North Korean nuclear test was merely a bluff.

I predicted that the 2005 Indianapolis Colts would have an undefeated season (and on through to October, 2006!)

I predicted the Chicago Bears would win the Super Bowl this year, but that was really a pro forma prediction . . .

Here is some unintentional hilarity on my part, regarding the opening days of the Huffington Post:

I think HuffPo is a keeper. It has enough substance and serious viewpoints to keep it from being a timewaster, and they are pretty good at headlining interesting and timely news stories (though Drudge still has them beat).
I will be interested to see what the naysayers think a few weeks or months from now. HuffPo is far from perfect, but will people find it useful? I think so.

Good God, could I have BEEN any more wrong? I should have listened to Nikke Finke, who had Arianna's number before the HuffPo even started.

I have predicted in many various and far-ranging places in comments that Hillary Clinton would not receive the Democratic Party nomination in 2008. Still possible, but the chances of that happening are fading. Norman Hsu, I need you to Hsurvive!

Once in a great while however, I nail one down and get it perfectly right. I keep beating you guys over the head over this one, but I am just so damn proud of it.

Regarding last year's Israeli-Hezbollah war:

Bold Predictions: Hezboallah will go into hiding, avoid direct confrontation with the Israelis, and manage to survive on as a cancer in the region. The Lebanese army will not be successful in rooting them out. Israel will run out of targets to hit, will not get their soldier hostages back, and Israel will withdraw from Lebanon and Gaza, and the status quo ante will continue. Israel will not attack Syria at the behest of the United States, in order to prevent a wider conflict with Iran that will lead to stepped-up Iranian attacks on Iraq.
In short, the conflict will achieve nothing.

Well truth be told, I wish I were wrong about that one too.

Posted by Ken McCracken · 14 September 2007 08:57 AM

Comments

I wish you were wrong too. BUT think about IF you were a lefty??? Then you would have to keep track of all those lies! They seem to lie alot.

Posted by: zsa zsa at September 14, 2007 10:07 AM

I predict there will be many, many, many, many more lies to come IF Hillary is elected President of the USA. OoooH that sounds bad!

Posted by: zsa zsa at September 14, 2007 10:10 AM

Oh gah, now I'm depressed.

Posted by: Ken McCacken at September 14, 2007 10:23 AM

wow! that is a great record to have!

Posted by: Frieda at September 14, 2007 11:00 AM

Do us all a favor, Ken, and predict a Hillary Presidency!

Posted by: Random Numbers at September 14, 2007 11:14 AM

Just the thought of another Clinton white trash era reeeeeally is depressing. AND sickening too!

Posted by: zsa zsa at September 14, 2007 12:27 PM

Maybe you should stick to number-crunching and analyzing, then.

Even the science fiction writer William Gibson, who has had some great accurate predicitions, states that world events are now so interconnected as to be unstable and defy predicition. One can no longer look at any situation in isolation as a product of a few predictable forces.

Posted by: Assistant Village Idiot at September 14, 2007 02:47 PM

I wish Isrrael had demolished hezbollah from exsistance forever!

Posted by: zsa zsa at September 14, 2007 03:46 PM

Sometimes, I think predictions are based on actual trends, maybe some facts, or maybe just wishful thinking.

Facts, ignored, and wishful thinking, depleted by negative and un-responsive human intelligence, and a flair for the fifteen minutes of fame have led us to the current culture.

I have a great appreciation these days to any individual, who after me making three declarative sentences can listen and respond intelligently.

Posted by: Eneils Bailey at September 14, 2007 03:51 PM

You guys do that here. And I wish to thank each and everyone of you.

We may not be right all the time, but you can bet your ass, the people who comment here are right most of the time.

Posted by: Eneils Bailey at September 14, 2007 03:58 PM

Well sure, now that Jadegold is gone.

Posted by: Ken McCacken at September 15, 2007 12:06 AM

why would the lebanon army root them out? hezbollah IS lebanon. the people are behind them. your prediction is way off. that's not at all how it went down.

speaking of which, havee you read "the ISrael Lobby" yet?

did you know tom harkin and dick durbin beat long time republican incumbents largely because of the lobby's support?

Posted by: lester at September 15, 2007 05:33 PM

Hezbollah is NOT Lebanon. Your statement is Way off, lester.

Posted by: zsa zsa at September 15, 2007 07:30 PM

Way off, Lester.

Did you not see the huge demonstrations during the Ceder Revolution, against Hezbollah's patron Syria?

Hezbollah is in a distinctly minority position in Lebanon. They have the support of, at most, 25% of the people there.

Posted by: Ken McCacken at September 15, 2007 09:04 PM

I know tons of lebanese and virtually all of them back lebanon. the anti syria demonstrations were not anti hezbollah demonstrations. Syria has an alliance with hezbollah, but they were driven out because of their unwanted hegemony not because of that.

Israels attack on Qana ended the cedar revolution. The west is reviled there now. thanks alot israel

Posted by: lester at September 16, 2007 08:06 AM

The west is reviled there, eh?

Well I guess they can just go back into the 7th Century, then.

Yeah, that'll really show America.

Posted by: Ken McCacken at September 16, 2007 11:58 AM

they don't like al queda either.

Posted by: lester at September 16, 2007 12:51 PM

Those must be some FAT Lebanese you know? Especially if you are wieghing them by the ton...

Posted by: zsa zsa at September 16, 2007 06:50 PM

lester. Data. sources. Then interpretation.

Posted by: Assistant Village Idiot at September 17, 2007 02:44 PM

http://www.truthdig.com/images/eartothegrounduploads/leb_girls_350.jpg

Posted by: lester at September 18, 2007 05:02 PM

Yeah, we all wish you were wrong about that prediction. *sigh*

Posted by: benning at September 19, 2007 10:20 AM