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Willisms

« Trivia Tidbit Of The Day: Part 471 -- Air Quality. | WILLisms.com | Wednesday Caption Contest: Part 128. »

Trivia Tidbit Of The Day: Part 472 -- Stocks & Congress.

Less Is More-

Roughly a year ago, WILLisms.com brought you a post on how sessions of Congress impact the stock market. The gist: stocks do better when Congress is not meeting. From 1897 to 2000, one dollar invested only on days Congress was in session would have yielded a two dollar return. That same dollar invested exclusively on days Congress was not in session would have given the investor 216 dollars and ten cents. Quite a stunning difference.

Pretty fascinating stuff.

Well, how about 2007?

According to Andy Roth of The Club For Growth, the same basic pattern held up (for the S&P 500):

In session: -2.8% Out session: +7.0%
s&p500congress.gif

It's not just up due to a big day here or there, either. The likelihood of the market being up is quite a bit higher on Out-Session days than In-Session days:

During this past year, the stock market was up 51% of the time (97 days out of 189) under the In-Session scheme. That's compared to 61% of the time (38 days out of 62) for the Out-Session scheme.

Pretty amazing. And it seems to impact foreign markets, as well. More detailed thoughts on all of this in last year's post on the subject.

-------------------------------------

Previous Trivia Tidbit: Air Quality Is Getting Better.

Posted by Will Franklin · 4 January 2008 11:15 AM

Comments

This gives buyers remorse a whole new meaning! I think Americans are regretting the new dem congress.

Posted by: Zsa Zsa at January 4, 2008 03:36 PM

I don't think the average person realizes the stock market reacts this quickly to the buffoonery that happens in Congress on a daily basis.
With the next National election cycle well under way, and the Republicans/Conservatives not forecasted to do well will lead to an adverse reaction for all of 2008 on the stock market.

If the democrats take control of Congress and the Presidency, will the following happen?

Individual income tax rate increase. Less money for the general economy, more for the government to waste.

The democrats want to start taking over the health care industry, which is about fifteen percent of the GNP.

Capital gains taxes will increase, leading people to sell off and get out of the stock market before those rates go up.

The democrats have as much of a general disdain for large industries as they have an affection for wasteful social programs. Corporate taxes go up.

They will pass regulations in the name of saving the Earth(ALgore environmentalism), therefore economically crippling some industries.

Things people used to get educated for, got up everyday and went to work for will be seen as a "right" and therefore funded by more entitlement spending.

Etc...etc...

These people could put us back into a "Jimmie Carter Malaise" if the electorate buys into the idea of HRC sitting by the Christmas tree handing out government "gifts" to everyone.

Posted by: Eneils Bailey at January 5, 2008 10:31 AM

No wonder the Dems in Congress are staying in session every day. Pester Bush AND ruin the economy!

Posted by: JohnJ at January 5, 2008 08:11 PM