Willisms
Navigation

Buy WILLisms

XML Feed


Featured Entries

The Babe Theory Of Political Movements.
Mar. 21, 2005 11:50 AM

Iran's Sham Election In Houston.
June 20, 2005 5:36 AM

Yes, Kanye, Bush Does Care.
Oct. 31, 2005 12:41 AM

Health Care vs. Wealth Care.
Nov. 23, 2005 3:28 PM

Americans Voting With Their Feet.
Nov. 30, 2005 1:33 PM

Idea Majorities Matter.
May 12, 2006 6:15 PM

Twilight Zone Economics.
Oct. 17, 2006 12:30 AM

The "Shrinking" Middle Class.
Dec. 13, 2006 1:01 PM

From Ashes, GOP Opportunities.
Dec. 18, 2006 6:37 PM

Battle Between Entitlements & Pork.
Dec. 21, 2006 12:31 PM

Let Economic Freedom Reign.
Dec. 22, 2006 10:22 PM

Biggest Health Care Moment In Decades.
July 25, 2007 4:32 PM

Unions Antithetical to Liberty.
May 28, 2008 11:12 PM

Right To Work States Rock.
June 9, 2008 12:25 PM



Donate





Links

Blogroll Me!







Search



Archives

July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004




Social Security Reform Thursday.
March 13, 2008

Caption Contest: Enter Today!
Due: July 29, 2008

The Carnival Of Classiness.
Mar. 14, 2006

Quotational Therapy: Obama.
Apr. 4, 2008

Mainstream Melee: Wolfowitz.
May 19, 2007

Pundit Roundtable: Leaks.
July 9, 2006

A WILLisms.com(ic), by Ken McCracken
July 14, 2006




Credits

Powered by Movable Type 3.17
Site Design by Sekimori




WILLisms.com June 2008 Book of the Month (certified classy):











The WILLisms.com Gift Shop: Support This Site

giftshopbanner.gif











This Week's Carnival of Revolutions: carnivalbutton.gif



Carnival Home Base: homebase.gif

























Willisms

« Wednesday Caption Contest: Part 132. | WILLisms.com | Trivia Tidbit Of The Day: Part 477 -- Superdelegates. »

Trivia Tidbit Of The Day: Part 476 -- Primary Turnout Means Nothing.

Avoid The Noid-

Much has been made of the disparity between Democrats and Republicans in these primaries and caucuses. Too much, in fact. Indeed, turnout during primaries, historically-speaking, means absolutely nothing for general election contests.

Some proof of this lack of phenomenon:

primariesmeannothing.gif

Look at 1988, for example. That was a record year. Democrats demolished Republicans in the primaries, yet it was a sweeping landslide for George Herbert Walker Bush over Michael Dukakis in November. Despite plenty of enthusiasm in the primaries, general election turnout (50.1%) was the second lowest of the past twelve presidential elections (only better than 49.1% in 1996).

Look at 1980, when Democrats had six million more primary voters than Republicans. Ronald Reagan went on to destroy Jimmy Carter in the general election.

In 2008, there is an enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans. There's no doubt about that. The proof is in the tepid fundraising numbers for Republicans compared to the astounding campaign hauls of Democrats. The proof is in the rally sizes, the internet searches (or lack thereof) performed for candidates on the respective sides, and the primary and caucus turnout figures.

Democrats, frankly, have a more compelling and exciting race right now. After McCain won South Carolina and Florida, Super Tuesday was really more of a coronation than a heated contest. Coronations draw fewer voters than heated contests.

Nevertheless, it is now February. We have eight months until the election. While Hillary Clinton would obviously unite and energize the Republican base, so would Barack Obama, the most liberal Senator in America. Moreover, while John McCain's record is not a reliably conservative one on everything from taxes to immigration, he will undoubtedly win over many conservative skeptics between now and November-- and not just the Anyone But Hillary types, either.

Ultimately, the election will be about Iraq and terrorism (retreat or win), taxes (hikes or not), Supreme Court nominees (lurch the Court leftward or not), and health care (socialized medicine or not).

Sure, it will be about a lot of other things, too, but there are some serious reasons for conservatives to get excited about this election. It might even be possible that John McCain, however flawed a candidate and however disdainful of the conservative movement he has been, could disarm liberals and the media, bringing some credibility and political capital toward some of the big issues facing America.

As a Senator, John McCain supported major campaign finance restrictions that-- ironically-- might harm his chances to win this year. We know the litany of other sins John McCain has committed. But he's also been a bulldog on spending and a champion for success in Iraq. On the issues, people will come around. On the issue of character, John McCain has an incredible story and far greater gravitas than either Hillary Clinton or Barry Obama could ever have.

This is not an endorsement for John McCain. Far from it. But let's get real about the primary season turnout gap. It has never translated into anything in the general election, historically. It won't this year, either.


-------------------------------------

Previous Trivia Tidbit: Unions.

Posted by Will Franklin · 6 February 2008 09:06 PM

Comments

Time to screen comments.

Good article, anyway!

Posted by: Terry_Jim at February 10, 2008 01:38 AM