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Trivia Tidbit of the Day: Part 639 -- Tracking Job Numbers.
Matching Results To White House Predictions-
The nation's unemployment rate fell from 9.5% to 9.4% last month. How does that put us on the White House prediction scale:
Another factor that will boost the unemployment rate in future months will be the fate of teenage workers. Teens accounted for a quarter of the decline in the labor force last month. July's jobs report was conducted before the minimum wage took effect. Therefore, it is likely that the job market for teenagers will be further weakened by the minimum wage increase. Teenagers already have the highest unemployment rate at 23.8 percent, which is more than double the national average.
It will be interesting to see how the recent hike in the minimum wage impacts job numbers. Hopefully, we are bottoming out and will see economic growth (and job growth) soon, but I am not optimistic about it. If it becomes clear that socialized medicine, card check, and cap & trade are dead and buried, we could see a serious rally.
Previous Trivia Tidbit: Cutting Taxes All Over-- Just Not America.
Posted by Will Franklin · 10 August 2009 10:18 AM
It is also interesting to note the impact of discouraged workers on the unemployment rate. I believe that around 350,000 workers left the job market last month which, if not accounting for that fact, would put the unemployment rate at 9.6-9.7%.
Those workers exist somewhere, they are just not actively seeking jobs right now. The recovery will be prolonged because of those workers that are essentially on the shelf will enter as soon as things start improving. Plus, the jobs market must create 150,000 jobs per month just to keep up with the current organic growth.
Despite the slight downtick in the unemployment rate, the net is that there are 250,000 fewer jobs last month, 150,000 more organic workers, and 350,000 fewer people in the jobs market because of discouragement. We have to create jobs for all of them before the rate will drop.
What is amazing is that the news media says we have "turned the corner" because the unemployment rate went down, yet we still lost over 250,000 jobs last month. Explain how you can lose jobs and have the unemployment rate drop without accounting gimmicks?
Posted by: Justin B. at August 10, 2009 11:03 AM