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Trivia Tidbit of the Day: Part 661 -- 2010 GOP Comeback?
My "Gut" Odds: 25%-
Republicans need to pick up 41 seats to take back the House of Representatives. There is a great deal of chatter around that possibility.
The somewhat left-leaning (but really great blog, graphically-speaking) FiveThirtyEight says it is a definite possibility:
It's still early--and there's a lot of scatter in those scatterplots--but if the generic polls remain this close, the Republican Party looks to be in good shape in the 2010.
It is way too early to make any prediction, but my gut tells me that Democrats are going to lose a lot of seats in 2010. 40 seats? Probably not, but it is definitely possible. There are, after all, 55 seats that flipped from Democrat to Republican from 2004 to 2008:
Indeed, Larry Sabato believes it is possible for Republicans to retake the House in 2010:
Roughly three-fourths of the districts (42) voted Republican for president in at least one of the last two elections. Twenty-one districts voted for the GOP presidential candidate in both 2004 and 2008.
My guess is that the media will pull a full-court press in favor of the Democrats, similar to what they did in 2006 and 2008. There is also still a lot of left-wing money that will be thrown at 2010, because if Obama loses a lot of seats or even all-out control of Congress, it will essentially mark his "Waterloo," as Jim DeMint would put it.
Chris Stirewalt believes independent voters are the key, and they are already turning on Obama:
For the first few months of the Obama administration, independents, who make up about 43 percent of the electorate, reflected overall public opinion in giving the president consistent approval ratings of about 60 percent. But now, unaffiliated voters are less positive than the overall electorate, which is holding steady at 51 percent job approval for Obama.
Michael Barone is more skeptical:
...the chances of the Republicans recapturing the House have to be rated now at well below 50%. But I think they’re not as negligible as I thought even a few weeks ago.
Newt Gingrich believes three things have created this new conservative opportunity:
1. The economy is so bad that people want straight talk about creating jobs. Since the American people believe, by 59 percent to 21 percent, that business tax cuts will create jobs better than government spending, this concern about jobs is becoming an increasingly anti-left phenomenon (the opposite of what the left expected).
I tend to remain skeptical about it, but I think one thing is abundantly clear: Democrats will lose dozens of seats in 2010. How many dozens will depend on just how organized the opposition to Obama/Pelosi/Reid really is, and how well our people can articulate positive conservative alternatives to the nation's problems.
Previous Trivia Tidbit: More Proof That Texas Leads: Bankruptcy Statistics.
Posted by Will Franklin · 24 September 2009 04:28 PM