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Willisms

« Trivia Tidbit of the Day: Part 743 -- Debt Limit Made Simple. | WILLisms.com | Trivia Tidbit of the Day: Part 745 -- Stimulus Jobs. »

Trivia Tidbit of the Day: Part 744 -- How Big Will Republican Gains Be In 2010?

Republicans To Make Gains-

Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball has a decent track record of predicting political elections based on trends, historical data, etc. Their latest prediction is great but not excellent for Republicans:

republicanstogain.png
It's great in the sense that Republicans are almost assuredly going to make gains. It's not excellent in the sense that these gains are not enough to take back Congress. Congress may be terribly unpopular right now, but it's all about Obama:
Some political observers have suggested that Congress’s low approval rating could have a major impact on the 2010 midterm elections. But low approval ratings are nothing new for Congress—it has been more than six years since Congress had an approval rating of 50% or higher in the Gallup Poll. Since 1974, when Gallup began asking this question on a regular basis, Congress has received an average approval rating of 50% or higher in only 2 years: 2002 and 2003 following the 9-11 attacks. Congress is almost always unpopular. However, opinions of Congress appear to have little or no influence on voting decisions in congressional elections. Despite the unpopularity of Congress, incumbents have enjoyed very high reelection rates throughout this period. Moreover, evaluations of Congress appear to have little or no influence on which party voters prefer in congressional elections. It is the president’s performance that matters when it comes to choosing between a Republican and Democratic candidate for Congress. In November, Democratic fortunes will depend on how voters feel about President Obama, not how they feel about Congress.

How much of an albatross will Obama be for Congressional Democrats?

And how, exactly, do Obama-aligned Democrats expect to win any races whatsoever in conservative states such as Texas?

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Previous Trivia Tidbit: Debt Limit Made Simple.

Posted by Will Franklin · 11 February 2010 09:54 AM

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