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Trivia Tidbit of the Day: Part 763 -- Declinism.
There are a lot of reasons to believe in American declinism, especially on a week when Obamacare passed and we look like we're set on a course for socialism despite what happens in the next two elections.
America can still turn back Obamacare, and we have some other things working for us:
Of course the percentage of childless women is rising here as elsewhere, but compared to other advanced countries, America still boasts the highest fertility rate: 50 percent higher than Russia, Germany or Japan, and well above that of China, Italy, Singapore, Korea and virtually all of eastern Europe.
As a result, while the U.S. population is growing, Europe and Japan are seeing their populations stagnate -- and are seemingly destined to eventually decline. Russia's population could be less than a third of the U.S. by 2050, driven down by low birth and high mortality rates.
Even more remarkably, America will expand its population in the midst of a global demographic slowdown. Global population growth rates of 2 percent in the 1960s have dropped to less than half that rate today, and this downward trend is likely to continue -- falling to less than 0.8 percent by 2025 -- largely due to an unanticipated drop in birthrates in developing countries such as Mexico and Iran. These declines are in part the result of increased urbanization, the education of women and higher property prices. The world's population, according to some estimates, could peak as early as 2050 and begin to fall by the end of the century.
Within the next four decades, most of the developed countries in both Europe and East Asia will become veritable old-age homes: a third or more of their populations will be older than 65, compared with only a fifth in the U.S. By 2050, roughly 30 percent of China's population will be older than 60, according to the United Nations.
Of course, a lot of these are just predictions and projections, and radical pieces of legislation like Obamacare could change our society and put us on a more European course of declinism, but assuming we can turn back the government takeover of the economy, we will continue our 20th Century American exceptionalism deep into the 21st Century and beyond.
Previous Trivia Tidbit: Government Health Care.
Posted by Will Franklin · 23 March 2010 10:15 AM
Decline starts with demographic collapse. Ask any 5th century denizen of the Western Roman Empire. The Europeans seem to be unusually adept at failure, but the Red mandarins have managed not only to produce collapse but to make the sex ratio among the young insanely unstable. Mark one up for central planning.
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