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Willisms

« Trivia Tidbit of the Day: Part 802 -- Private Employee Income Down, Government Payouts Up. | WILLisms.com | Trivia Tidbit of the Day: Part 804 -- Leave Texas Alone. »

Trivia Tidbit of the Day: Part 803 -- Republican Wave Election In 2010?

1994 Versus 2010-

How much is 2010 going to be like 1994?

Probably a good deal. But, then again, not.

The ever-astute Michael Barone runs down some key polling around the country pointing to a big wave election in November:

Such signs abound for Democrats these days. For example, Republican Jim Renacci leads incumbent Democrat John Boccieri 47%-36% in Ohio 16. Boccieri won this district, which had been held by Republicans since 1950, by a 55%-44% margin in 2008. He switched from no to yes on the health care bill in March 2010. That doesn’t seem to have helped.

Another late switcher on health care, Steve Driehaus of Ohio 1, is also trailing. From my colleague David Freddoso comes the news of a poll by the Republican firm Public Opinion Strategies showing Republican former Congressman Steve Chabot leading Democratic incumbent Steve Driehaus 53%-39%. Driehaus was one of the “Stupak five” who said they wouldn’t support a health care bill that funded abortion but who turned around and provided the key votes that passed the bill March 21. The result is very similar to a poll conducted in January for the liberal blog Fire Dog Lake showing Chabot leading Driehaus 56%-39%.

Meanwhile, Scott Rasmussen reports that Republican Rick Berg leads 18-year incumbent Democrat Earl Pomeroy 52%-43%. This is the fourth straight Rasmussen poll in which Berg has led Pomeroy.

And here’s a shocker from a governor race. According to Rasmussen, Republican Chris Dudley leads Democrat John Kitzhaber for governor of Oregon 45%-44%. That’s not statistically significant, but it’s a lot different from Kitzhaber’s winning margins of 51%-42% in 1994 and 64%-30% in 1998. The last time a Republican was elected governor of Oregon was 1978.

Indeed, the latest Rasmussen poll shows Republicans with an 8 point lead over Democrats, generically-speaking.

Taking a look at the latest "Crystal Ball" scenario, Republicans are projected to make gains, but we're in such a deep hole that it is unlikely that Republicans will control Congress after the 2010 elections:

notenoughformajorities.gif
At this point, the Crystal Ball believes Republicans would pick up 32 House seats if the midterm election were held today—an increase from our earlier estimate of 27. How do we arrive at the number 32? We have 13 Democratic-held seats clearly leaning to the Republican Party, with 22 more races as pure toss-ups that may well go GOP—minus the three Republican seats tilting to the Democrats.

....

If this projection holds, 2010 will produce a sizeable Republican victory that will limit to a great degree what Democrats could pass in the House of Representatives. Remaining Democratic Blue Dogs could be expected to defect with some frequency on more liberal Obama Administration-backed legislation. A 32-seat gain would also be the largest since 1994.

At the same time, Republicans would remain in the House minority. Even a small Democratic majority in the House would produce Obama victories in some areas, and Democrats would retain committee chairmanships and all the perks that come with being in charge.

Looking at specifics, Democrats have to defend more vulnerable seats than Republicans-- seats they had no business winning in the first place.

demheldhouseseats.gif

Democrats have a lot more seats to defend, although most of them are "Likely" holds due to the power of incumbency and the way some of these districts tend to vote.

Republicans, on the other hand, have practically bottomed out:

republicanheldseats.gif

When even "Mavericky" anti-establishmenty Democrat Senator Russ Feingold is virtually tied with his Republican opponent in Wisconsin, you know some crazy things are going to happen this year.

Key points:

1. Republicans will almost certainly make big gains in 2010.
2. Republicans likely won't make enough gains to take back Congress in 2010.
3. President Obama, in some ways, has to be rooting for Republicans to take over Congress in 2010. If Democrats still control Congress in 2012 and are perceived to have a death-grip on power for a few more cycles, despite strong Republican waves, Obama is almost assured of being a one-termer.

-------------------------------------

Previous Trivia Tidbit: Private Employee Income Down, Government Payouts Up.

Posted by Will Franklin · 27 May 2010 10:48 AM

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majority control is not yet necessary, but enough to block passage via filibuster should do.
let the dems have majority till 2012 when we throw the big O out as well.

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