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Willisms

« Trivia Tidbit of the Day: Part 821 -- Income Mobility Alive & Well. | WILLisms.com | Trivia Tidbit of the Day: Part 823 -- More Education Spending Doesn't Create Better Educational Outcomes »

Trivia Tidbit of the Day: Part 822 -- Structural Battlefield Working For Democrats In 2010.

Why 2010 May Not Be As Great As 1994 Despite Overwhelming Sentiment Against Democrats-

Before Republicans break out the Waterford Crystal champagne flutes and the 1994 Dom Perignon, let's keep things relatively in perspective:

2010not1994.gif
...the vast majority of House seats that the Democrats lost in 1994 – 48 of 56, to be precise – were in “Red” or “Purple” districts. And this year, the Democrats have fewer of such districts to defend.

In short, the playing field looks much friendlier for House Democrats in 2010 than it did 16 years ago. The number of “Blue” districts they hold has risen by 43, from 128 in 1994 to 171 today, while the number of “Purple” districts they must defend has dropped by 39 (from 77 to 38). Meanwhile, the total of “Red” districts occupied by House Democrats is down this year by four from 1994 (from 51 to 47).

Arguably, the political landscape is more favorable for the Democrats this time because they are a more cohesive, top-down party than they were in 1994. Then, they were coming off a series of weak presidential showings in the 1970s and 1980s in which their standard-bearer only once could carry more than 138 of the nation’s 435 congressional districts (the exception being Jimmy Carter in 1976).

That being said, Republicans can and should make a big dent in the Democrats' Congressional majorities, both in the House and Senate. Republicans are also poised to win back a lot of gubernatorial positions, which means a much deeper GOP "bench" for 2012 and 2016.

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Previous Trivia Tidbit: Upward Income Mobility In America.

Posted by Will Franklin · 28 June 2010 11:46 AM

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