Willisms
Navigation



Buy WILLisms

XML Feed
rss-icon.gif Feedburner RSS
WILLisms.com on Twitter




Featured Entries

The Babe Theory Of Political Movements.
Mar. 21, 2005 11:50 AM

Iran's Sham Election In Houston.
June 20, 2005 5:36 AM

Yes, Kanye, Bush Does Care.
Oct. 31, 2005 12:41 AM

Health Care vs. Wealth Care.
Nov. 23, 2005 3:28 PM

Americans Voting With Their Feet.
Nov. 30, 2005 1:33 PM

Idea Majorities Matter.
May 12, 2006 6:15 PM

Twilight Zone Economics.
Oct. 17, 2006 12:30 AM

The "Shrinking" Middle Class.
Dec. 13, 2006 1:01 PM

From Ashes, GOP Opportunities.
Dec. 18, 2006 6:37 PM

Battle Between Entitlements & Pork.
Dec. 21, 2006 12:31 PM

Let Economic Freedom Reign.
Dec. 22, 2006 10:22 PM

Biggest Health Care Moment In Decades.
July 25, 2007 4:32 PM

Unions Antithetical to Liberty.
May 28, 2008 11:12 PM

Right To Work States Rock.
June 9, 2008 12:25 PM



Donate





Links









Search



Archives

November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004




Social Security Reform Thursday.
January 29, 2008

Caption Contest Archive
Jan. 21, 2009

The Carnival Of Classiness.
Mar. 14, 2006

Quotational Therapy: Obama.
Apr. 4, 2008

Mainstream Melee: Wolfowitz.
May 19, 2007

Pundit Roundtable: Leaks.
July 9, 2006

A WILLisms.com(ic), by Ken McCracken
July 14, 2006




Credits

Powered by Movable Type 3.17
Site Design by Sekimori




WILLisms.com January 2009 Book of the Month (certified classy):











The WILLisms.com Gift Shop: Support This Site

giftshopbanner.gif











This Week's Carnival of Revolutions: carnivalbutton.gif



Carnival Home Base: homebase.gif

























Willisms

« Is Westboro Baptist Even Really A Real Organization? | WILLisms.com | Trivia Tidbit of the Day: Part 895 -- Texas Versus California On High Wage Job Growth. »

Trivia Tidbit of the Day: Part 894 -- Was 2010 Bigger Than 1994, Really?

2010 Definitely Up There, Historically-

So, was 2010 the biggest electoral tsunami in midterm history?

In some ways, maybe, sort of, yes. In other ways, let's stay realistic here:

governorsandlegislatures.gif

In gubernatorial races, there were a few missed opportunities, a few more extremely close calls, and Republicans had already picked up two high profile governorships in New Jersey and Virginia during the cycle, but Republicans now control 29 of 50 states with a distinct opportunity to pick up a couple more in 2011. In legislative races, 2010 was ranked number four, but the timing (redistricting year) and context (picking up majorities in states that are gaining/losing Congressional seats next year) of Republicans picking up so many seats, in my book, puts this year at number one.

houseandsenate2010.gif

1922 was an interesting year, because even though Democrats made enormous gains due to the post-WWI recession, Republicans still held an 18-seat majority in the House of Representatives and a 10+ seat majority in the Senate, and Republicans won landslides again in 1924. Because Democrats remained in the minority after this election, and because Republicans regained so many seats in 1924, it's difficult to really call it the most monumental midterm in history.

1938 was a great year for Republicans, as Franklin D. Roosevelt's New Deal coalition was already coming apart. Indeed, voters rejected his increasingly expansive, activist federal government, and they weren't too happy with the economic relapse/stagnation under FDR's watch. Eventually, "it was Hoover's fault" gets old. This election, much like 1922, didn't actually return power to Republicans, though, so it's difficult to call it the most meaningful midterm election ever.

1958 was a terrible year for Republicans, following a big reelection win for Eisenhower in 1956. Why did Democrats win so strongly in 1958 and keep control of Congress for so long? They "got the band back together" and suddenly they had a coalition that didn't necessarily make sense philosophically but worked anyway, electorally. Texan Sam Rayburn served as Speaker of the House, Republicans wouldn't take back the House until 1994. Because of this enormous staying power Democrats had for generations, 1958 may have actually been the most meaningful midterm in modern history.

This is the overall ranking according to the AEI folks, John Fortier and Jennifer Marsico, but I think you have to give or take some bonus points for timing and context in some of these years.

2010isnotthecraziestyearever.gif

Yes, 2010 was a stunning rebuke of the once untouchable President Obama and his legislative ally Nancy Pelosi, and the timing is great for redistricting, but Republicans still do not control the Senate, and Harry Reid well out-performed the polls in Nevada to personally hang on to power. Republicans also narrowly lost a some very winnable races that one would have assumed should have tilted Republican in such a "wave" year. In some ways, 2010 was a reversion to the mean. A return to normal. 2012 may be marked yet again by a game of inches. If Republicans can take back the Senate and make additional gains in the House in 2012, I think you will be able to move up the 2010 cycle up the list. Rarely does the Census year, just before reapportionment and redistricting, yield such major midterm gains for one party.

-------------------------------------

Previous Trivia Tidbit: Obama Still Politically Potent, Not Neutered Just Yet.

Posted by Will Franklin · 16 November 2010 05:25 PM

Comments